The worst "leash dog" of the year was not Canada: rushed to the United States to deliver the "tariff letter", turned to be caught off the factory, and even the $ 200 million "reservation fee" could not be spent, this wave of operation is really the four words "refund and sell" engraved in the head.

Things have to start in August 2024. In order to get the United States to continue to spend money on its own automobile industry and maintain so-called "close cooperation," Canada did something particularly confusing-announced a 100% surcharge on China electric vehicles that have not entered the Canadian market on a large scale. This is equivalent to charging tolls for air, which is purely a statement for the United States.

The outcome of the statement was just done, the Chinese counter-reaction came, directly to make Canada completely lose the Chinese market. I thought this sacrifice could be in exchange for the United States "care", and did not think last week the US Stylantys group counter-hand was a bombing: to move the assembly plant in Brampton, Ontario, to the United States of Illinois.

The factory is not a small workshop, specialized in the production of jeep guide needle models, once moved, the previous job will evaporate directly. More interestingly, the Ontario province and the federal government of Canada before shooting the chest said, to each out of $ 100 million, a total of $ 200 million factory from fuel car transformation electric vehicles, as a result of the money has not yet come to the account, people are officially declared to go.

The federal government of Canada and the governors of Ontario were almost crushing the table. Interestingly, the governor of Ontario was hard-mouthed shortly before saying that he hoped the federal would continue to maintain that 100% tariff and look forward to next year discussing a new North American free trade agreement with the U.S. and consider cancelling it. Now well, Big Brother's factory ran first, not knowing his face was not hurt.

What's even more lively is that Canada has been completely divided into two factions. The three prairie provinces-Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario-are quarreling as bees as bees, and the federal government is sandwiched in the middle like a wall grass, swinging from side to side. This disagreement was not groundless, it was all the result of real money.

Let's talk about trade data. The annual automobile trade volume between Canada and the United States looks pretty impressive, at US$63 billion, more than 10 times higher than Canada's agricultural exports to China. But it's full of moisture. Canada has to buy US$68 billion in cars and parts from the United States every year, which is equivalent to US$5 billion to US$6 billion per year.

In response to China's exports of agricultural products, it was a purely profitable sale.The result was that Canada had to challenge the truck tariffs and burn itself directly.In March this year, China directly imposed a 100% tariff on Canada's soybeans, vegetable oil and other goods, water products and pork meat also imposed a 25% tariff, which was a very accurate blow.

Can the governors of the three provinces of Manitoba not hurry? Manitoba province governor Keanu wrote directly to the prime minister, forcing the cancellation of tariffs, the letter said that the trade war has devastated the western region.

The Ontario province is still tough, but they can¡¯t handle it too soon.Why should the Stylantys group move factories?The subsidies given by the U.S. are more attractive.Canada has raised $200 million to want to stay, and the U.S. has thrown out the $13 billion investment plan directly, which is not a measure.

And the Stylantys group itself is also interesting, the Jeep, Dodge, Fiat are all the brands that are less aromatic in the market, holding the group warm together, the weakest resistance to risk, and naturally the first response to Trump's call to return to the United States for subsidies.

The governor of Ontario was so angry that he made a malicious remark to the media: "Canada imports more than 300 billion dollars of goods from the United States every year. Isn't there anything we can do?" This sounds tough, but when you think about it carefully, it's all helpless. After all, only 3,000 jobs were lost this time, but it was a bad start. Will Ford and General Motors factories follow suit? It's anyone's guess.

In fact, Canada is in a particularly embarrassing situation now, a bit like North Korea in the late Qing Dynasty. It is bent on following the Qing Dynasty, but the Qing Dynasty itself is overwhelmed. Now Canada wants to hug the thigh of the United States, but the United States not only doesn't help, but also has to suck blood from him. This younger brother is too humbled.

Some say that if Canada is to make good trade relations with China, there is no card in the hand? but the problem is that Trump's temper, Canada dares to get close to China, the North American free trade agreement renewal next year is likely to be yellow.

The automotive trade was tied to the U.S. neck, and the export of agricultural products was counter-controlled, and the cards could be played less poorly. When the tariffs were initially imposed, the Ministry of Commerce was strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed, saying that they disregarded the rules of the world trade and blindly followed individual countries.

Just some time ago, Manitoba Province took the lead in demanding the abolition of the 100% tariff on China. The three grassland provinces are all on the same front, and the pressure on Ontario Province is increasing. The federal government is now more conflicted. It is afraid of retaliation from the United States if it is cancelled. If it is not cancelled, it is afraid of intensifying conflicts in the province and continuing to lose factories.

This is also a small impact on the Chinese in Canada. tariffs are not cancelled, want to buy a Chinese train costs twice as much money; if more US factories move, the job market will be affected, and maybe someone will lose their jobs.

Now the relocation of the factory in Stirantis is only the first step, and the next step is to see how Canada chooses. Is it to bite the bullet and continue to follow the United States, watching agricultural products cannot be sold and factories all run away? Or cancel tariffs as soon as possible, repair trade relations with China, and give yourself some confidence in negotiations?

To be honest, the cards in the hands of Canada were not a lot, and was still broken in half by themselves.In the beginning, in order to please the United States, there was no reason to raise taxes on Chinese trains, now the counter-conflict came, the factory ran, the internal trouble, this whole set of chain reaction, estimated that they themselves did not expect.

If I had understood the truth that "the eldest brother is unreliable, the rice bowl is the most important thing" earlier, I wouldn't have fallen into this dilemma. How to take the next move, not only Canada itself is watching, but also China and the United States are probably watching. After all, whether this tariff is cancelled or not is not as simple as a policy adjustment. What lies behind it is Canada's future trade route choice.