The world is really going to change!Putin if by the pressure of Trump to take down Donbas, it is absolutely the tiger “opened the barrel” – can not stop at all.To know, the Russian troops hit the hard bones that have not eaten for more than three years, Trump once blasphemed and forced Zelensky to send people, this “uncombatable” sweetheads, Putin can easily let go?
If Trump forces Zelensky to cede the land of Donbas to Russia, the logic will be obvious, that is, Russia will invade the territory of a certain country in the front and cannot win it, and the United States will force it to cede its territory to Russia. Once Putin and Russia receive such benefits, they should not stop in the next step and ask the United States to support and help seize land. This good thing will not be done in vain.
Which country is next? let’s analyze.
The first to bear the brunt is definitely Moldova, the "soft persimmon". Sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, this country is simply a piece of meat in Russia's mouth, especially the left bank of the Transnistria River (Gerleft) region, which has long been held by the Russian army. At present, the Russian army still has more than 1000 "peacekeeping troops" stationed in Germany and left, which is equivalent to a knife in the heart of Moldova. What's worse is that 80% of Moldova's electricity relies on Germany's thermal power plant, and all of the natural gas in this power plant comes from Russia, which means that Putin's energy lifeline is tightly strangled.
Some people say that Moldova is a neutral country and Russia will not move? So naive! In Moldova's parliamentary election in September last year, as soon as the pro-European "Action and Unity Party" won, Russia immediately manipulated the pro-Russian forces to cause trouble. It spread rumors of election fraud, trained protesters to stir up riots, and launched a cyber attack that paralyzed 4000 websites. Now if Donbas is in hand, Putin will turn around and support the German-Left separatist forces. At that time, he will either force Moldova to recognize German-Left independence, or simply take the opportunity to station troops in the entire territory. Trump may even help "persuade peace"-After all, in his eyes, Moldova's sovereignty is not as important as the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire performance.
The second dangerous is Georgia in the South Caucasus. The country has deepened its enmity with Russia, after the 2008 Ogg War, South Ossetia and Abkhazia became practically independent, and the Russian troops are still stationed there. Now Georgia has a mind to hold the West's leg, not only want to join the EU, but also hope to join NATO, which is simply to hit Putin's gun.
Putin recently frequently visited the South Caucasus, in August just went to Azerbaijan to consolidate the “strategic new backbone”, and said that it was paving the way for control of the region. Once Donbass managed, Russia stretched out, and will definitely turn back to take Georgia. At the time Trump just said “don’t drag the U.S. down the water”, can cut Georgia’s aid, as it now does to Ukraine.
There are also several stani states in Central Asia, which seem to be in close contact with Russia now, but in fact they also hide risks. Putin just went to Tajikistan for a summit in October. He signed an alliance agreement and talked about energy cooperation. On the surface, he was a "close partner", but in fact he was firmly controlling this strategic channel. You know, Central Asia is Russia's "back garden" in responding to Western sanctions. Once a country wants to get closer to the West or disobeys, Putin has ways to put pressure on it. For example, breathing gas, supporting the opposition, and Trump's indifference, these countries have no room for resistance.
Someone might ask that NATO countries are not dangerous? such as the Baltic three countries. In fact, it is not necessarily, after all, these countries have NATO defence commitments, Trump wants to sell allies, and also have to measure the risk of NATO disintegration. but Moldova, Georgia, these "frontier countries" that do not join NATO, is the perfect goal - not relying on mountains, weak power, taking both expanding territory, and will not trigger a direct conflict with NATO.
The most frightening is the silence of the “double-pound hand.” Trump is now thinking of asking Russia to stop firing, to pave the way for himself, as long as Putin gives a “face”, he is completely likely to sacrifice the interests of the small country. As the EU officials scream, it is simply “sell the legs of the small country and get nothing.” This time Trump forced Ukraine to cut territory, and the next time if Russia took action on Moldova, he would probably pretend to be invisible, and even force Moldova to “know the time.”
Does this scene seem familiar? At the Munich Conference, the big countries sold Czechoslovakia in exchange for a short "peace", which finally detonated World War II. If the "Shuangpu" really does this now, it will open the "Pandora's Box"-cutting Donbass today, swallowing Germany tomorrow, and robbing South Ossetia the day after tomorrow. The cost of the big country transaction will all be borne by the small country.
After all, weak countries without diplomacy are never empty words.Moldova's power, Georgia's territory, Central Asia's resources, in the face of the game of great powers, all become exchangeable codes.Trump wants power, Putin wants expansion, and their "consensus" is the " nightmare" of small nations.
Then look at the Budapest summit, if the "Double Peace" really reached a deal, then the days of these countries in Moldova will really come to an end. This is "peace negotiations", clearly a "conference of divisions". and America's "democracy lighthouse", has long become a candle that does not illuminate the fate of small countries, only the cold interest calculation remains.