On October 21, after the collapse of the "self-government alliance", Takashi Saami, once ridiculed as a "poor woman who could not become prime minister", finally won the election by the Prime Minister of the House and Senate through the United Reform Association, becoming the first female prime minister in Japanese history.
Her right-wing color and many controversies have also filled the outside world with concern. Lin Min, a doctor of law at the University of Tokyo and a distinguished researcher at the Institute of Oriental Culture at the University of Tokyo, previously wrote an article pointing out that Takashi may touch three major issues on China's red line: Taiwan, historical understanding and territorial issues. Takashi's early emergence may be the beginning of a diplomatic nightmare against Japan.
In this regard, Observer.com contacted Dr. Lin Quanzhong and asked him to conduct an in-depth analysis of the policy trend and its possible impact after sanae takaichi took office.
Takaichi Sanae was elected as Japan's first female prime minister
The Taiwan issue, a hidden worry of Sino-Japanese relations
Observer.com:Whether it’s from the political standpoint of the high-market individuals, or from the Venice of the Alliance with them, the right-wing colours are very strong. Does this mean that Japanese politics will accelerate toward a harder conservative direction? What do you think is the biggest risk that this can bring to neighbouring countries?
Lin Quanzhong:Indeed, when High Market Early Count came to power, people were more concerned about her far-right ideology. I used to describe Abe as “the highest right-wing index” in 2006, and he was actually on the same level as High Market Early Count. However, although Abe was very right in ideology, he also showed a realistic side. Therefore, you will find that the first country he visited after taking office in 2006 was not a long-term ally of the United States, but chose to fly to Beijing. If High Market Early Count lacks this flexibility and pragmatism, it may make surrounding countries more concerned.
When it comes to whether or not Ho Chi Minh would take some major action to seriously disrupt peace or make a major shift in policy, my judgment is that it is basically impossible. Taking the constitutional amendment issue as an example, this is also Abe's core mentality and his most important goal, even if he has strong political power and energy, could not be achieved within his term. By contrast, Ho Chi Minh was far less than Abe, lacking in her own base and sufficient energy within the party, relying largely on the support of others.
The only thing China is worried about is whether she will get closer to Taiwan? After the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan in 1972, the so-called "diplomatic" relations between Taiwan and Japan no longer existed. As for exchanges in the name of private vacations, there are different understandings and understandings between China and Japan. This difference may lead to actions in certain aspects. For example, it is possible that Tsai Ing-wen visits Japan in her private capacity. If this happens, it will undoubtedly have an impact on Sino-Japanese relations and may even shake the stability of relations between the two countries. Therefore, this situation cannot be ignored.
However, major decisions such as amending the constitution and waging war are difficult for any Japanese leader to achieve under the existing system. Therefore, we need to be vigilant and observe carefully, but we should not over-interpret or be nervous, mistakenly thinking that takaichi sanae's coming to power means the resurrection of militarism, and then thinking that peace in East Asia as a whole will be difficult to maintain. Don't forget, the high city regime itself is weak. Even if it forms a coalition government with the Reform Association, its seats in Congress are still less than half, and it still needs to win the support of six opposition party members, otherwise many bills will be difficult to pass.
During the Abe era, the Liberal Democratic Party alone could hold more than half of the seats, or even more than half of the seats. With the support of the Komeito Party, the seats could reach 2/3. This situation lasted for a long time. Today, the situation is completely different, and the Gao Municipal Government is basically weak. Therefore, it is particularly difficult for Takashi Saami to advance decision-making on some sensitive matters, because these sensitive matters can easily trigger a strong backlash from opposition parties.
Therefore, I expect that after takaichi sanae takes office, he will turn to a certain degree of pragmatism, but whether this degree of pragmatism will be as high as Abe's, and it deserves our further attention to handle relations with neighboring countries such as China.
Observer.com:You mentioned the Taiwan issue, we all know that the high market and Taiwan are very close, will she take action on the Taiwan issue in the future?
Lin Quanzhong:On the one hand, takaichi sanae is very right, on the other hand, she is very close to Taiwan Province. For example, before she ran for president of the Liberal Democratic Party in April this year, she went to Taiwan Province to meet Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen, and she also held a video talk with Tsai Ing-wen three years ago. She was the only Japanese politician to do so.
In fact, the relationship between the high market and Taiwan is relatively close, which will also make the mainland of China more concerned, and it is possible that there may be these small moves behind the high market, which will trigger China-Japan relations.
I just mentioned that after the high market came to power, there may be some loosening in the "visit" of Taiwan officials, and this year there have been two Japanese Deputy Cabinet Ministers visiting Taiwan, which is unprecedented, the last time in 2017.
In this respect, Shigeru Ishiba is smarter, and to some extent, his style is similar to that of Shinzo Abe. Stabilize Sino-Japanese relations first, and then discuss how to "develop relations" with Taiwan Province. As for whether Takaichi Sanae has such abilities, it depends on her actions later.
Observer.com:As a loyal fan of Shinzo Abe, Takashi Saami also believes that "if something happens to Taiwan, something happens to Japan." In addition, Japan often cooperates with the United States in taking actions in the Taiwan Strait and Diaoyu Islands. If this is the background, how will Japan's new cabinet under Takashi respond to the United States '"Taiwan Strait Strategy"?
Lin Quanzhong:Neither the United States nor Japan think that the accident in Taiwan Province has anything to do with them. In fact, there have been three crises in the Taiwan Strait in the past. If we add the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis triggered by Pelosi's previous visit to Taiwan, we can see that the United States has never stood idly by. This means that if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will definitely intervene, but we cannot make an accurate judgment on how to intervene now.
In this context, Japan will also provide assistance within its capabilities. However, the current constitution does not allow Japan to send troops overseas. Assuming war breaks out across the Taiwan Strait, it will be difficult for Japan to follow the United States to fight in the Taiwan Strait due to domestic constitutional provisions. However, because Japan, especially Okinawa, and especially the Southwest Islands, are relatively close to Taiwan, Japan and the United States have completed the militarization process of this area. This deployment was actually launched more than ten years ago. It was initially not aimed at the situation in the Taiwan Strait, but for the Diaoyu Islands, because the Taiwan Strait was not so tense at that time.
As is well known, in 2012, Japan implemented the so-called "nationalization" of the island of Fiji, which caused the relationship between China and Japan to fall into a low valley. At that time, the Abe government began to militarize the southwestern islands, mainly to deal with the issue of Fiji. However, during the transit, the tension in the Taiwan Strait is now increasing, so the militarized deployment of the southwestern islands has been given a new function, namely, to assist the United States, once the United States intervenes in the Taiwan Sea war, Japan will provide assistance based on the judgment that the war may endanger its own nation's survival.
Japan can only provide backward support, and it is unlikely that it will directly participate in front battles.The best place for backward support is Okinawa.Therefore, whether the southwestern islands or the entire Okinawa region, occupy an important position in the security strategy of the United States and Japan, and this importance will not only be weakened in the future, but will be increasingly valued and the position will become more and more critical.
Domestic and foreign affairs, high municipal power is unstable
Observer.com:After Takashi took office, one of the diplomatic occasions he would immediately face was the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. How do you think she will present the image of the new cabinet?
Lin Quanzhong:APEC is set to meet at the end of the month, leaving the high markets less than two weeks, and for the high markets now, the first priority is to stabilize the regime, not to say two weeks, two months is not enough.
Therefore, during this period, Takaichi showed a posture of stabilizing Sino-Japanese relations, and this possibility exists. If so, it may have a certain impact on the development of relations with China during her term of office. After all, a good start is crucial. We should pay attention to how takaichi sanae, as the new leader of Japan, will show his diplomatic direction and policy during APEC. Not only China is concerned about these issues, but other countries, including the United States, also hope to know something about them.
For Takashi Zaomiao, the most important thing is how to establish a good relationship with Trump, because one of the important reasons for Shigeru Ishiba stepped down was that the outside world generally believed that he had failed to properly handle relations with the United States, and Trump even forgot his name, which undoubtedly led public opinion to question his ability to handle U.S. relations.
After realizing this, new leaders will attach great importance to this issue. Therefore, the APEC meeting has become a crucial occasion, and the Gaoshi Early Miao Conference wants to take this opportunity to leave a good impression on Trump and gradually establish personal relationships. I believe that after the APEC meeting, Takashi's first diplomatic itinerary will be to plan a visit to Washington, which should ideally take place within three months, and no more than half a year at the latest. If we fail to visit Washington within six months, the prospects for Japan-US relations will be difficult to be optimistic. Therefore, this will be the current top priority for Gaoshi Zaomiao, so it will not stimulate the mainland of China on Taiwan issues or historical issues, including South Korea, and will maintain a certain degree of caution.
As for whether takaichi sanae can keep her mouth shut, frankly speaking, I am also a little worried about this. It depends on whether her aides can play a buffer role. Even if she says something wrong, she can pull her back, thus reducing conflicts with neighboring countries.
Observer.com:Just now, you mentioned that Takashi will give priority to its relations with the United States. We know that Trump will visit Japan next week, with the main purpose of urging Japan to implement the tariff and trade agreements reached during Shigeru Ishiba. In order to ease Japan-US relations, will takaichi sanae make some concessions to the United States in terms of tariffs and economic interests?
Lin Quanzhong:Just mentioned that relations with the United States are Japan's most important diplomatic relations, but after Trump came to power, including Japan's allies raised tariffs, which also made Japan very headache, how do you feel you can't separate me, even good friends dare to do so?
This also means that what the new government of Takaichi will do next is to try to reduce the voice of dissatisfaction in Japan. Because if the dissatisfaction is loud, the outside world will attribute the problem to the incompetence of the government, and the stability of the new cabinet in Takashi will be challenged. When the support rate drops below 30%, the regime begins to destabilize. If it reaches 20%, you will be ready to step down.
Observer.com:According to your prediction, will the Gaoshi Cabinet be a "short-lived cabinet"? After all, we know that frequent cabinet changes are a very distinctive feature of Japanese politics.
Lin Quanzhong:Honestly speaking, for the high market, in addition to diplomacy, the most important thing is to get the economy up. Abe can do so for so long, and there are also some actions in diplomacy, mainly because of his Abe economics is a bit productive.
Therefore, my prediction is that if the economy does not go well, the high market will soon fall. so within six months, to have a good show on the economic data, including solving problems such as employment, inflation, otherwise it is likely that after six months her support rate will fall below 30%, this pressure is great.
Therefore, it is not that the election of the prime minister is as stable as Taishan, the next high-market early she must face the pressure from within the party, outside the party and the public opinion, with internal affairs and diplomacy, she may still do more than a year, otherwise a year is enough.