On October 19, 2025, just nine days after the ceasefire agreement took effect, Israel launched an air strike on the Rafah area in southern Gaza, citing "Hamas violating the agreement," killing at least 45 people. The incident triggered a strong reaction from many parties, and the ceasefire agreement faced a severe test.
The Israeli military said the air strike was retaliation for Hamas militants' attacks on Israeli troops from tunnels. The Israeli army statement pointed out that on the morning of 19th, armed men fired anti-tank missiles at the Israeli army in the Rafah area, killing two soldiers and injuring three others. Subsequently, the Israeli army dispatched fighter planes to bomb Hamas underground passages and military facilities. However, Hamas denied the allegations, saying that the Rafah area was an Israeli-controlled area and that it could not contact the local armed forces, and accused Israel of long-term funding of armed groups to destabilize.
UN Secretary-General Guterres called for the protection of civilians, EU Foreign Representative Kaia Kallas stressed that “a ceasefire that is unsustainable will lead to disaster”.Qatar, Turkey and other countries also criticized Israel for “deliberately creating chaos,” while Egypt denounced the international community for “silence promoting violence.”
The ceasefire agreement was originally scheduled to be implemented in phases, including the withdrawal of Israeli troops, the release of detainees and the opening of aid channels. However, since the agreement came into effect, the two sides have accused each other of breaching the contract more than 50 times. Israel has restricted aid supplies to Rafah Border Crossing, and Hamas has accused Israel of funding armed groups. The air strike further exposed the fragility of the agreement, and the prospect of the second phase of negotiations is worrying.
Analysts believe that the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement depends on the political will of both sides and the intensity of international mediation. If the conflict escalates, it will intensify the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and impact the Middle East peace process.