"Is Brazil taking advantage of the situation?"
Under the Sino-US trade war in Beijing, the United States stuck our necks with soybeans, and we turned around and chose cheap soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and other countries.
But I don't know how, in recent days, the offer of Brazilian soybeans is increasingly higher, even higher than in the United States!
Chinese buyers collectively stopped buying when they saw this!
As our number one source of soybean imports, why did Brazil suddenly raise prices?What tactics are hidden behind Chinese buyers' stopping?
The substitution of Sino-US trade
Brazilian soybeans dare to raise prices, the biggest part of the reason is the US-China trade war has disrupted the global soybeans market, so that the trade pattern has changed greatly, and Brazilian soybeans have the opportunity to take advantage of this.
The whole thing will start in early 2025, when Trump was re-elected president of the United States, trade friction between China and the United States further escalated.
Seeing this, China naturally did not sit down, and immediately came a "precise counterattack", imposing more than 90% tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, this trick directly hit the "seven inches" of U.S. agriculture.
You know, China is the world's largest soybean buyer, accounting for 60% of the world's imports. In the past, more than half of American soybeans were sold to us. It is not an exaggeration to say that China is a "super customer" of American soybeans.
In addition to these tariffs, the price of the soybean market is instantly messy.For a simple example, before taxation, US soybeans are $40 per ton cheaper than Brazil, so big the price difference, our country will definitely prefer to buy American soybeans.
After the increase in taxes, the situation is completely reversed, with the cost of U.S. soybeans instantly rising to $ 509 per tonne, while Brazilian soybeans are only $ 420 per tonne, while U.S. soybeans are more than 20% more expensive than Brazil.
What matters about doing business is cost. Chinese buyers are naturally reluctant to buy such expensive soybeans, and they have turned their orders to Brazil.
From January to August 2025, China imported only 5.8 million tons of soybeans from the United States, almost 80% less than in the same period last year.
After May, China simply stopped buying American soybeans. This is a "critical blow" to American agriculture.
Some farmers in the United States were also very devastated when they saw this. They all directly protested: Cancel tariffs and let us live!
Now the statistics of the American Soybean Association found that because of this trade war, American agriculture has lost about $26 billion, and soybean growers have lost nearly 10% of the global market share.
Brazil takes advantage of the situation?
Some people are happy and others are worried. On the other hand, Brazilian soybean merchants are very happy, because they have seized the opportunity to seize this huge market.
Just as they can also take over the logistics network that our country has helped them produce in the past few years, this has made the transportation of soybeans faster and faster, and the cost is also gradually decreasing.
But this almost “unique” market position also creates new problems.When Brazil almost became the only major alternative to Chinese soybean imports, it also hides the danger of subsequent price increases.
Once there is a wind blowing on the Brazilian side, or you want to make an article on the price, the Chinese market will be greatly affected.
In any case, Brazil has seen itself as China's most important bean importer, and has also begun to "robble by fire."
The sudden rise in the price of Brazilian soybeans is just like the current price of soybeans. The quotation of Brazilian soybeans is 2.8 to 2.9 dollars more expensive per bushel than the price of November soybean contract in Chicago futures market.
American soybeans cost $1.7 more than futures contracts, while Brazilian and U.S. soybeans cost $1 more than exports.
The people behind this calculator can see clearly, Brazil this time is wanting to use the market, earn a lot of money. domestic enterprises are not stupid, of course will not be this "wrong head", just not to buy, first with actual actions to express dissatisfaction.
At present, many people think that our stop-up is a helpless move, in fact, the three "calculators" behind it have long been successful.
China's Three Guarantees
This first "calculator" is the price change of Brazil's new beans listed in Brazil.
Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) recently predicted that the new batch of soybeans harvested early next year will reach 177.64 million tons, a full 6 million tons more than this year.
At the same time, Brazil's soybean planting area will expand to 48.2 million hectares, and 3.5 tons of soybeans can be stably produced per hectare. Looking at it from this perspective, the problem of a serious oversupply of soybeans in Brazil has been confirmed.
So the Brazilian grocery merchants now dare to raise prices, in fact, use the existing inventory in their hands to short-term hype.
Producers in Matogrosso state have revealed that after the end of the South American soybean harvest season, three-quarters of the stock on the market has been sold, and the remaining food merchants are thinking about storing soybeans and not selling, waiting for a high price.
However, this price increase can not stop at all. at the beginning of next year, tens of millions of tons of new harvested soybeans instantly flooded into the market.
At that time, if China continues to not buy their soybeans, the soybeans in the hands of Brazilian grain merchants will be like hot potatoes, can only be sold at lower prices, and prices will naturally return to normal levels.
In addition, our country still has the "trump card" of the United States in its hands. After all, American farmers have long been protesting because they can't sell soybeans.
Chairman of the American Soybean Association, Caleb Lagrande, also wrote to the White House urging them to resume talks with China.
If the two sides can reach an agreement to eliminate unreasonable tariffs, the price advantage of U.S. soybeans will return instantly.
Even if these two calculators were not realized, China would have long been on the "triple insurance", the supply of soybeans is not afraid.
Let's start with the state's reserves of soybeans, which is actually "the bottom of the box."
In April this year, the price of soybeans suddenly rose, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs directly stated: the soybeans in the state warehouses can be taken out at any time!
Looking at domestic soybeans, this is not food at the bottom of the box, but a long-term guarantee.
This year, more than 1.5 billion acres of soybeans have been planted in the country, namely, high-olive soybeans in the Yangtze River, one acre can collect more than 400 kilograms of beans, and the oil content is 1% to 2% more than last year.
So our “food” is becoming more and more stable.
The last remaining is China's new strategy for soybean imports, with Brazil raising prices and Argentina filling the gap.
In September this year, Argentina's soybean orders to China directly surged to the highest level in seven years. Just as Argentina suspended soybean export taxes, my country purchased millions of tons in an instant.
In addition to Argentina, Canada has always been our stable soybean supplier, and countries such as Uruguay have also become our new options.
Nowadays, buying soybeans in our country is no longer a scene of "the east is not bright but the west is bright". If any country wants to rely on price increases to get stuck in our necks, it is simply impossible!
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