The Network of Observers.

US President Trump claimed last week that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil during the call. However, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly issued a statement denying that the two heads of state had ever had a phone call. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not confirm or deny the shift in energy import policy, but stressed that India's import policy is completely oriented to national interests.

However, after being ¡°faced¡± by the Indian government, Trump still insisted on receiving Modi¡¯s promise. According to Reuters, Trump reiterated in an interview on the same day that Modi had told him that India would stop importing Russian oil.

Trump told reporters on Air Force One: ¡°I talked to Indian Prime Minister Modi and he said he would not continue to buy Russian oil.¡±

When asked about India's denial that Modi and Trump had spoken on the phone, Trump responded: "If they want to say so, then they can only continue to pay huge tariffs, which they don't want to do."

Trump receives media interview on Air Force One

On October 15, local time, Trump announced at a White House event that Modi had promised him in a phone call earlier in the day that he would stop purchasing Russian oil. However, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randir Jaiswal said on the 16th that on the day Trump mentioned,"I was not aware of any telephone conversations between the leaders of the two countries."

The Indian Economic Times that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, India became one of the main buyers of Russian discounted oil, with one-third of the total crude oil imports coming from Russia, but the U.S. government insisted that Russia funded military operations through oil revenues, which became a key obstacle in U.S.-India trade talks.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs of 50% on Indian imports of U.S. goods, and trade talks between the two countries are still ongoing.U.S. negotiators have previously told Indian officials that reducing Russian oil imports is an important condition for a trade deal.

An Indian government official told Reuters on Tuesday that trade talks were conducted in a "friendly" atmosphere and that the Indian delegation to the United States for talks last week had returned home, but did not disclose more information.

White House officials announced on the 17th that India has cut Russian oil imports by 50%, but Indian sources said that no significant reduction has been found. The source said that Indian refineries have placed orders for November, including some goods arriving in December. If India cuts imports, it will be reflected in the import data in December or January next year.

The commodity data firm Kpler estimates that, influenced by the latest dynamics in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, India¡¯s Russian oil imports will increase by about 20 percent this month to 1.9 million barrels a day.

According to the Economic Times, Ukraine has continued to attack Russian energy facilities in recent years, and the United States and other Western countries have tried to force Russia back to the negotiating table by striking Russian energy revenues. Unless US President Trump and Russian President Putin make a breakthrough at the next meeting, India¡¯s pressure on the Russian oil issue is unlikely to weaken.

The report pointed out that in order to reach a trade agreement with the United States, the Indian government may make concessions on Russian oil imports, and some Indian refineries are already preparing to cut Russian oil imports. Indian refiners are also facing pressure from the European Union, which will ban imports of fuels refined from Russian crude oil from January 21 next year, while the European market accounts for one-third of India's diesel and jet fuel exports.

Since Indian refineries have been buying Russian oil at discount prices, U.S. and EU initiatives could increase financial pressure on Indian enterprises. Last year, India¡¯s Trust Industry signed a ten-year agreement with Russian Petroleum Corporation to supply 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Russian Petroleum Company also holds a 49% stake in Indian refinery Nayara, whose refineries rely heavily on Russian oil imports.

However, the Economic Times believes that even if India is forced by Western pressure to cut Russian oil imports, it is unlikely that it will have too much impact on Russian energy exports.As India's purchases decline, Russian crude oil may enter the "shadow market" and reflow to many markets, including India, after erasing information about the country of origin.

The newspaper wrote: ¡°The loss of a major market such as India would reduce Russian oil buyers, forcing Russia to sell oil at greater discounts, thereby affecting Russian revenue.But Western pressure on Russia¡¯s massive oil industry, which is unlikely to cause its output or exports to decline, may just reduce market transparency, making markets that are already less transparent harder to observe.¡±

As regards India¡¯s oil import policy, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India stressed: ¡°India is the main importer of oil and natural gas. In the context of turbulent energy, safeguarding the interests of Indian consumers has always been our priority, and our import policy is guided entirely by this goal.¡±

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said: "We have strong demand for energy resources and are economically advantageous and practical. I believe that our partners will continue to cooperate with us."

Russian President Peskov said on the issue of energy procurement, the Russian side mainly refers to official statements from India, "these statements are public and we judge the situation on the basis of these statements."

Peskov pointed out: "U.S. President Trump has repeatedly stated that he intends to persuade countries not to buy Russian oil. But on this issue, the positions of these countries themselves must also be considered. This is an issue related to the interests of the people. Countries want to buy high-quality products at lower prices, and Russia can provide such an option."

related news

Niu Tanqin: Modi said some scenes and was really angry with Trump

Modi's meeting with Trump

It feels like Trump is really damaged by Indian gas.

Of course, from another perspective, Indians are also embarrassed by Trump.

On October 20, Trump, who liked the flight conference, had such a conversation with reporters on Air Force One.

The reporter asked him: India said it did not know that it pledged to stop buying Russian oil.

Trump replied: Then they will continue to pay large tariffs. No, I spoke to Indian Prime Minister Modi and he said he would not do Russian oil.

The reporter continued asking: But why would India say they¡¯t do that?

Trump is a little anxious: I don't know, but if they want to say that, then they will continue to impose high tariffs. But they don't want to do this...

What does that mean?

To understand this conversation, go back to an amazing announcement made by Trump five days ago.

At the White House press conference at that time, Trump announced to the world that Modi is his good friend and we have a good relationship, but "I am not happy about India's purchase of oil. (Modi) assured me today that they will not buy oil from Russia. This is a big step ¡­"

"This may be an emergency news, can I say that?" Trump was very pleased.

You know, the United States was very angry because India purchased Russian oil before. Trump announced that he would impose an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the US tariff on India to a record 50%.

This move shocked India and the world.

Comic stunted relationships.

I see that India also argues that when India bought Russian oil, you encouraged the United States to think it would help stabilize the international oil market, but now you give India a knife behind it.

Angry Modi, allegedly repeatedly refused to receive Trump¡¯s phone calls.

There are also indigenous netizens who are angry with the message: the battle with China is over, and now it is the battle with the United States.

International relations are sometimes like an unfinished game of chess. Every step affects the overall situation, and behind every commitment there is an untold cost.

The impasse continued for a while.

But if Modi really said that, Trump would naturally be happy and I would win again.

What does Russia think?

Russia is embarrassed.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that from an economic point of view, it is advantageous and reasonable to buy Russian energy, and that Russia will continue to cooperate with friendly partners.

Asked whether to receive signals from India, Novak said that according to some countries, no one can tell them to act and they will choose their own path.

In one word, Russia believes in India, even though it¡¯s a bit reluctant.

Comic books about Trump's global policy.

What should India say?

The Indian Foreign Ministry is also embarrassed.

In any case, the first reaction of Indian diplomats is that Modi and Trump haven¡¯t spoken at all recently, so Modi¡¯s promise not to buy Russian oil, why talk about it?

Neither acknowledged nor denied it, but the journalists understood that India did not know its commitments and left the issue to Trump.

Trump was obviously unhappy.

So, looking at Trump¡¯s response, he continues to insist:

1. Modi has a commitment to me;

I don¡¯t know why India denies this.

If so, then India, wait for high tariffs.

In a word, the United States and India have spent money.

What's the truth?

We don't know either.

In any case, we see that Modi neither publicly acknowledged nor publicly denied it.

Modi visited the Indian aircraft carrier and also posted photos of Indian soldiers collectively practicing yoga on the carrier.

Recently, he visited the Indian domestic aircraft carrier, and also released photos of Indian soldiers practicing yoga collectively on the aircraft carrier, but he didn't mention Trump in a word.

Modi is also in a dilemma.

Publicly responding to Trump is to face Russia; publicly responding to Trump is to face America.

Modi doesn't say anything.

Politics is sometimes a silent drama. The fewer lines, the more complicated the drama behind it.

But I saw Indians analyzing one after another that Trump claimed that Modi promised not to buy Russian oil. This is impossible, completely impossible.

The reason is simple.

1. There is a discount on Russian oil, and India will lose money if it does not buy it.

2. Russian oil is also suitable for Indian refineries, and the cost of replacing other oil will increase.

3. Russia and India have a traditional friendship, and India cannot stab in the back like this.

And don¡¯t forget that India also has national dignity.

Therefore, we saw that not long ago in Beijing, Modi met Putin, and his old friends were very happy to meet. Along the way, they walked arm in arm, and Modi even took Putin's special car and had a good talk.

So, we also see that recent India imports of Russian oil, in fact, more rather than less. in the first half of October, on average about 1.8 million barrels a day, about 250,000 barrels more than in September.

Modi's meeting with Trump.

The question comes.

The U.S. and India are unable to hold their positions.

Either Trump arranged Modi, or Modi neglected Trump.

So, what we see is the appearance: Trump is rushing to the sky, who knows Modi is not saying a word, the journalists are still facing, you see, India does not know there are promises.

Trump is in a hurry, India, you're not interesting enough, then we'll see you on tariffs...

Of course, another possibility cannot be ruled out. Modi did say some superficial words, but Trump, who was relatively vague and outspoken, thought that Modi had made a promise and announced to the world immediately that I won again...

¡°Trump wins learning¡± leveraged directly to ¡°Mody wins learning.¡±

Two old actors are in a drama. I also have to say, ordering tofu in brine will reduce one thing.

But Trump, Trump, can you verify some news before sending it? Sometimes, let the bullets fly for a while, three trials and one school are still needed.

Modi, Modi, did you make any promises, did you really neglect Trump?