In October 2025, on the border line of the South Asian subcontinent, the smell of fire in the air was worse than in the early autumn.After October 9th, Kabir-Pushto province was hit by three successive suicide attacks by the Pakistani Taliban (Bata) — Pakistani soldiers who guarded the border post were still asleep and were hit by sudden attacks.
In just 24 hours, 90 soldiers lost their lives, more than 150 were injured, and even three border posts were temporarily controlled by the other side. When cleaning up the scene afterwards, staff found the remnants of explosives left behind, and the source was identified as being in Afghanistan.
This is by no means an accidental border friction, but it is more like the sudden explosion of a pot of decades of conflict between the two Ba’a countries.
For a long time, Pakistan has always said that there is a "safe haven" of Bata hidden in Afghanistan, and that those militants have slipped in from Afghanistan and carried out attacks in Pakistan;
But Afghanistan has its own reason—they never acknowledged the “Durand Line” drawn by the British colonists in 1893, believed that the line was hardened by foreign forces, countless, and believed that Pakistan’s counter-terrorism operations had long crossed the “red line” in their hearts.
The Pakistani side quickly informed Afghanistan of the situation through diplomatic channels, but the Taliban's reaction was very tough, saying it was a "unilateral provocation" of Pakistan, and in a few days gathered forces to retaliate.
In the early morning of October 11, Afghan militants carried rockets and exploded the construction of the Pakistani border, and the exchange of arms between the two sides immediately escalated. Afghan Foreign Minister Mutaki had just visited India during the time, and also spoke in the face of foreigners: "Go ask the Soviet Union, the United States and NATO, fighting with Afghanistan, who has fallen out?"
But he didn't expect that Pakistan's next counterattack would be quick and accurate, completely caught them off guard.
Fierce Dragon's Precise Strike Unsheathed: Reversing the Battlefield Situation in 24 Hours
Faced with the tough attitude of the Taliban, the Pakistan Air Force did not hesitate much, and on the afternoon of October 15th, it made a key counterattack. Three Xiaolong Block3 fighter jets took off from Peshawar Air Force Base in an emergency, with CM-400AKG supersonic missiles and Thunderstone-6 glide guided bombs hung under the fuselage, and headed straight for targets in Afghanistan.
In fact, this strike was prepared, already more than 20 hours before the departure of the fighter aircraft, the Wing Dragon-2 combat drone had already rotated in the sky - it not only used high-definition lenses and synthetic perforated radar to look to the death of the Taliban ammunition warehouse, command center, but also quietly suppressed each other's ease of communication system, so that those militants could not transmit messages to each other, equal to breaking their "ears" in advance.
The Xiaolong fighter jet did not dare to be careless. It used silent flight to break through the enemy's warning line throughout the entire process. Under the guidance of the drone, it steadily carried out a precise strike.
The first wave of bombing hit the large ammunition depot in Spinboldak, and the flames of the explosion soared into the sky, and the shock wave could be felt several kilometers away; Immediately afterwards, the headquarters of the 1st Taliban Brigade and the Durrani No.2 attack base were also bombed one after another.
At first, Taliban spokesman Mujahid also wanted to lie, telling the media that the explosion in Kabul was "an accident caused by a tanker fire".
But this word was said in a few minutes to reveal the stuff - people who lived near the explosion heard at least three loud noises, the scene still left the debris of the drone, people at a glance knew what was not an "accident", this lie was struck on the spot.
Later data released by the Pakistani military showed that the airstrike directly destroyed five key targets and more than 40 militants were killed.
And the cost ratio of the Dragon fighter aircraft, in this operation is also reflected clearly: those old warplanes do not have accurate guidance capabilities, striking this goal is easy to mistake; if the use of high-end warplanes, it appears too wasteful, can not come; only hanging long-range missiles Dragon Block 3, just in the middle, became the most suitable choice.
In just 24 hours, the situation on the battlefield was completely reversed-the armed strongholds in Afghanistan were smashed to pieces, and the Taliban, who had been tough before, began to soften their attitude.
13-hour negotiations broke the game: realistic considerations behind the ceasefire
Not long after Pakistan's military strike, the deterrent effect became apparent. In fact, as early as October 15, the two sides had already talked once and reached a 48-hour temporary ceasefire agreement.
When the ceasefire was reached, the border sounded again: on the evening of 17th, Pakistan said it was attacked by armed men and immediately followed by a “precise strike” that killed 70 people; while Afghanistan rejected that Pakistan’s airstrikes wounded civilians, 17 civilians lost their lives, three of whom were local bowling players.
This cycle of “You hit me, I’ll give you a shot” continues, and will only cause more people to suffer. So in Qatar and Turkey, the defence ministers of the two countries sat at the negotiating table in Doha on October 18. The negotiation was not so easy, and you came to me for 13 hours and finally got the result.
Early in the morning of October 19, Pakistani Defense Minister Ashiv first announced on social media that the two sides had reached a ceasefire agreement; not long after, Afghan spokesman Mohammad came out to confirm the news.
The agreement clearly stated that from now on neither side will engage in hostilities or support any attack groups against each other; it also agreed to hold another meeting in Istanbul on October 25 to set out the implementation mechanism after the ceasefire.
Some people say that Afghanistan is "giving up at the speed of light", but in fact, this is more like a realistic choice after weighing the pros and cons of both sides. For the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, what is most needed now is to create a "responsible" international image. If the conflict continues, the domestic livelihood problems will only be worse-the common people will have no food to eat and a stable life, and the foundation of the regime will be unstable.
On this side of Pakistan, the pressure of the domestic public opinion is not small, on the one hand to combat terrorists, protect border security, and on the other hand not to allow the conflict to expand, we must find a balance between the two, otherwise the domestic people will not agree.
More importantly, this round of conflict has caused hundreds of civilian casualties. Statistics later released by the United Nations Assistance Mission have put a lot of humanitarian pressure on both sides. If the fight continues, the international community will be more and more accused.
Moreover, during the negotiations, Pakistan also produced 12 evidence documents, which clearly proved that those militants launched the attack from Afghanistan; Coupled with the air superiority demonstrated by the Xiaolong fighter jet, the Taliban also understands that there is no good in carrying it hard, and it will only eat and lose more.
In a statement, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry specifically cited the phrase “to establish mechanisms to consolidate lasting peace” and it was clear to both sides that a ceasefire is just the first step.
The disputes of the Durand line and the coordination of cross-border counter-terrorism, these decades-old problems, cannot be solved by a ceasefire agreement.The next Istanbul meeting is the key to really test the goodwill of both sides, whether peace can beined and what to do next.
Source of information:
People's Network: Pakistan and Afghanistan confirm a ceasefire agreement
New Civil Network: What is the reason behind the Baha'i border?