Last week was a big blow, this week a handshake and peace, and the "brotherly war" in Pakistan and Afghanistan said it had stopped, and many have not yet reacted.
The conflict, from the border artillery to the Qatar negotiating table, has been frightening for half a month, but the most intriguing is not the fire itself, but the conflict. The Taliban, who had just finished bombing, turned his head and expressed willingness to talk, and initially changed officials in several border provinces, the low-headed gesture was quite evident.
The question arises, why did the Taliban suddenly turn off? Is it impossible to defeat, or is someone giving an olive branch behind the back? What is even more interesting is that Turkey actually became a key player in this negotiation and arranged the next meeting. Behind this incident, what lies not just as simple as border frictions.
Why did this fight start with a “mistake”?
On October 8th, several Pakistani border troops were suddenly attacked and killed at the border with Afghanistan, which is believed to have been carried out by the “Pakistan Taliban Movement” (TTP), a group that has been active in Afghanistan for a long time and the Taliban government has been accused of granting or even asylum.
The next day, the air force moved out and flew to the outskirts of Kabul, precisely hitting several TTP bases. This is equivalent to directly targeting the Afghan government, the Taliban can withstand? On October 11, the Afghan military began to counteract, the border line almost into a full state of fire. Artillery and fighter planes are all on board, and every minute is the rhythm of a small and medium-scale war.
You have been fighting for several days, almost all the border villagers have withdrawn, all trade ports have been closed, and even the normal material transportation has been interrupted. Not to mention the common people, even the Taliban began to panic. Afghanistan's economy is already weak, and it relies on border crossings to do some business with Pakistan to maintain its daily life. With this bombing, life directly stalled.
More importantly, the days of the Taliban in the past few years are not better, international aid is almost cut, domestic food, healthcare, education is a collapse, financially can not afford a long-term conflict. and Pakistan?
Looking at the situation out of control, Qatar came in. On October 17, the Taliban and Pakistan's senior leaders flew quietly to Doha, and Qatar arranged a negotiating site. The people involved were not the general role, the Pakistani came as defense minister and intelligence director, and the Taliban was the head of the military and intelligence systems. This scene shows that it is not a simple meaning, but a real talk.
It’s about a ceasefire, it’s about faces and interests.
To be honest, this negotiation seems to be about a ceasefire, in fact it is about how to give each other a step down.The Taliban just got bombed, can not be too quick to tolerate soft, that is a lot of no face; Pakistan should also say a word, can not be beaten and seem okay.
So the mediation between Qatar and the Middle East is crucial: to persuade the Taliban not to hold back, and to assure Pakistan that there will be action.In the end, the two sides talked for two days in Doha, and the ceasefire agreement was finally signed.
But the Taliban are more than just "signing an agreement." After signing the agreement, they immediately replaced the governors of several border areas, especially Badakhshan Province, which was the area with the heaviest fighting. Substitution is not a routine operation in regimes like the Taliban, which shows that they really want to stabilize the situation and give Pakistan a way out.
Many people think that the Taliban is confident, in fact more like recognizing the reality. The war is not difficult, it is difficult to know who comes to the end after the fight. The Taliban is now not mixed with international recognition, no money, no resources, no support, really hard to hold, and in the end the first to fall is themselves.
Turkey didn’t do it, but the card came out.
Many people do not understand how Turkey is so far away, how can it become a "key figure" in this conflict? Actually, The friendship between Turkey and Pakistan is not a day or two.
As early as the Ottoman Empire, Pakistan’s predecessor, British India’s Muslim, donated money to Turkey in support of independence. For decades, the relations between the two countries have been very iron, and military, intelligence, and trade cooperation has never been broken. Turkey is Pakistan’s old brother.。
The relationship with the Taliban is due to the commonality of Islamic culture, and Turkey is not the kind of role in NATO that is completely united with the West. Therefore, in the eyes of the Taliban, Turkey is a middleman who can be trusted and talked to.
So this time, As soon as the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, Turkey announced that it would invite both parties to continue talks in Ankara on October 25。This move is not to push the boat with the current, but to make arrangements.
Turkey’s cards are not weapons, but faces and platforms.You spoke on my ground, and I came to preside, which both satisfied the Taliban’s desire to be “equally treated” and made Pakistan feel like someone is behind it. This kind of diplomatic operation is better than war.
From our country's point of view, this scene is actually particularly familiar. The "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence" we have promoted over the years is to hope that neighbors will talk less and talk more. China has always advocated the stability of its surrounding areas, especially the important channels of "the belt and road initiative" such as Afghanistan and Pakistan. Once something goes wrong, it will have an impact on the development of the whole region.
The fire has ceased, but the problem remains, and peace must come out.
Although there is a ceasefire now, the port has been reopened, and the Taliban has shown a cooperative gesture, the problem has really not been solved. Pakistan's doubts about the Taliban will not disappear overnight, and the "hot potato" of TTP cannot be solved by changing a few governors. As long as the Taliban does not completely clear the terrorist forces in the country, the alert of Pakistan will not relax.。
However, the Taliban are not monolithic. Local armed forces and religious factions are not sure who listens to whom. You say a ceasefire today, but tomorrow a certain local commander is unhappy and the gun may go off. This uncertainty is the biggest hidden danger.
But no matter what, at least now they are willing to sit down and talk, border trade has resumed, and people can live. This is already a great progress. Behind this, it is not just Qatar and Turkey that are contributing, Our country's long-standing "smooth and silent" mode of mediation is also slowly working out.
Since the beginning of this year, my country has organized meetings between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Beijing, Kabul and other places many times to promote the establishment of communication mechanisms. Instead of shouting slogans in a high-profile manner, we are actually building bridges and paving the way and opening the door to dialogue.
Looking now, This ceasefire is the result of multilateral cooperation, balance of interests and realistic compromise.There is no official big drums, more behind the silent push, low-tone coordination. This way, not as high-tone as the West, but more ground-based, more problem solving.
Peace is not just talk, it must be achieved little by little
Behind this turn from artillery fire to negotiation is the pressure of reality and a contest of wisdom. The Taliban's "admission" is not to give in, but to recognize the current situation; Pakistan's toughness is not bravado, but for the bottom line of national security. The mediation between Turkey and Qatar shows that The regional countries have the ability and will to solve their problems in their own way.。
From our perspective, this way of "talk to you, I will help you" is exactly in line with the multilateral mutual aid concept we have been advocating.We do not engage in camp confrontation, do not interfere in the internal affairs of others, but we are willing to provide a platform, provide support, promote peace in our neighbors.
War has never been the best way to solve problems, especially for these developing countries, where peace is the only way out. The Taliban's bow this time is a realistic choice and a new beginning. Peace is inexpensive, but it is difficult. May this ceasefire not be a one-off painkiller, but rather a first step towards long-term stability.
reference
Xinhuanet Hot Questions and Answers | Why are Afghanistan and Pakistan fighting and stopping
China Net has gone through 13 hours of negotiations! Pakistan and Afghanistan "shake hands and make peace"