Just last week, Indonesian Defense Minister Shahri hinted to the outside world that he would soon purchase a batch of J-10 fighter jets from China, and they would soon appear over Indonesia. A few days after the news broke out, that is, last weekend, British media further broke the news, saying that Indonesia not only wanted the J-10, but also wanted to obtain three other equipment from China through a loan plan.
This matter has attracted a lot of attention in China's public opinion. It is generally felt that it was the result of the last India-Pakistan conflict, brought military orders, and was also an important manifestation of the expansion of China's influence in Southeast Asia.
However, we are afraid to give you a bowl of cold water here. We look at Indonesia’s complex arms purchase trajectory in recent years and find it more like a well-planned strategic trial. In the case of three years, Indonesia has signed an order of 8.1 billion dollars with France, reached a billion contract with Turkey for 48 Khan fighters, and jointly developed the KF-21 with South Korea and pledged to purchase 48 aircraft. At first glance, it seems to be ambitious to expand its air force, and as a result, Indonesia and the parties are not very happy in the negotiations and the progress is not visible.
Today, Indonesia has offered an "olive branch" to China. This "blooming everywhere" procurement strategy is not so much the "urgency" of pursuing the modernization of the Air Force, but more like a purpose of technology extraction under the guise of military procurement. This is already a very euphemism.
For example, in June this year, Indonesia and South Korea signed a revised agreement on the KF-21 project, making a high-profile announcement that some parts and components would be produced locally. However, three months later, South Korea suddenly broke the news, saying that the Indonesian engineers involved in the cooperation were "suspected of stealing the design data of KF-21 avionics system." Although the follow-up investigation acquitted the people involved, this storm exposed Indonesia's desire for core technologies has touched the bottom line of partners.
Similarly, in the French "Rafale" procurement, Indonesia repeatedly delayed payment on the grounds of "budget review" and asked Dassault to transfer engine maintenance technology; Cooperation with Turkey's "Khan" once stalled due to differences in localized productivity.
Nowadays, Indonesia's stance on the J-10 is equally ambiguous. When Indonesian defense chief asked the media, he only vaguely promised to "deliver it soon", but refused to disclose the specific quantity, model and timetable. The so-called "US $3.1 billion loan" of the Indonesian Ministry of Finance has been questioned as an "intentional figure" by the industry. This recurring pattern of "big thunder but little rain" implies that its strategic focus is not the equipment itself, but to incite technology transfer through multiple negotiations.
According to the content of the report by the British media Jane's Defense Weekly, if it is true, then Indonesia will subsequently "lend" money to purchase China's J-10B, and then introduce the Type 022 stealth missile boat and CM-302 anti-ship missile. From the most cautious point of view, for Indonesia, purchasing second-hand equipment can not only obtain fourth-generation semi-fighter technology at a low cost, but also use maintenance upgrades to access China's radar and avionics system design logic.
More fun is, these three types of equipment exactly cover the air, sea, coast base three major fields, constituting a complete set of "technological sampling combination". type 022 missile boat as a representative of China's naval offshore defense system, its double high-speed design and hidden characteristics for Indonesian reef defense is very reference value; CM-302 ultrasonic anti-ship missiles involve guidance and control technology, if Indonesia with the name of "maintenance adaptation" requires technical support, or will get some sensitive subsystem analysis opportunity.
As Southeast Asia's largest economy, Indonesia has always tried to build an independent national defense system. Its "Golden Vision 2045" clearly requires that the localization rate of key equipment exceed 50%. However, the weak foundation of the country's aviation industry forces it to choose to "save the country by curve" and reverse absorb technology through multiple purchases.
This purchase of the J-10B, not excluding will try to break China's source phase control radar, and the adjustment data of the supporting ship "turbine-10". Although this strategy can accelerate the accumulation of technology, it is very easy to trigger supplier counteraction. South Korea has previously added censorship mechanism for Indonesia because of the risk of technology leakage, if China fails to establish a firewall, the J-10's aerospace architecture, hidden coating and other key technologies may face the risk of leakage. If Indonesia is really willing to purchase Chinese equipment, this is of course good, but in technical issues, China still needs to carefully consider the precautionary measures.
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