This game looks like Putin has lifted the corner of the table, but in fact, it is the ultimate tactic for old sales to clear inventory at the end of the year.
Do you think that what you see is the game of great powers, is the geopolitical horror? pull down. What you see, in essence, is a company that is about to be dragged down by the inventory, the boss personally leaves the game, against a potential big customer representative (although the predecessor), engaged in a promotional campaign of "buy me this most expensive package, I give you a dish of fruit".
A three-hour phone call is so dense that it can be compressed into a black hole. But when you tear off all the wrappers of diplomatic rhetoric, strategic warnings, and interest exchanges, the only core product exposed is Donetsk.
Putin’s words are translated as: “Gentlemen, don’t mess with those things, you look at the hardest currency in my hand – Donetsk, you let Ukraine sign a stamp and admit it’s mine. as long as this is done, a ceasefire? immediately arrange! even, I can symbolically move my ass from those places in Zaporizhia and Helsinki, and give you a “Jin”.
Do you feel a little familiar with this road?
You go to the 4S store to buy a car, sell you for half a day, and finally say: "Brother, this price is really fine!
You taste, you taste carefully. Is that set of film and floor mats your core appeal when buying a car? It's not. But it makes you feel like you're taking advantage of it, as if you've won a round in this tug-of-war.
This is what Russia is doing now. Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are the set of "film and foot pads". It is implying to the West and Ukraine: Look, I am willing to "give up profits", shouldn't you also express it?
What is the core? The topic of the negotiations was changed from "whether Russia should withdraw its troops" to "whether Ukraine should trade Donetsk for peace."
What's this called? This is called agenda setting. It's like at a company meeting, and the boss directly said,"We don't discuss whether to work overtime today, we only discuss whether to eat lunch boxes or hot pot for overtime meals," which directly overlooks your core demands.
What's even more interesting is that warning. Putin said to Trump, if you dare to give Ukraine long-range missiles that can reach our hinterland, then everyone should stop talking about it.
This operation is worse.
This is not called threat, it is called "creating scarcity". A product, if it is available at any time, is worthless. Sales masters all know that it is necessary to create a sense of urgency for customers that "if you miss this village, you won't have this store".
What Putin means is: My "peace package" is available for a limited time. If you hand the knife to the opposite side, I'm sorry. Our shop is closed, and this only window period of peace has been closed by you personally.
He kicked the ball, or the pot, accurately to the United States. Now the United States needs to choose between two options: should it give Ukraine weapons, escalate the war, and bear the accusation of "undermining the peace"? Or will we hold Ukraine down and force him to come to the negotiating table, and go down in history as a "world peacemaker"?
You see, that's the benefit. For some people in the United States, a ceasefire agreement that can be led and reached by them is real political capital, which is much greater than the benefits of aiding hundreds of missiles.
So, it is interesting to see the following rumors. Someone in the U.S. side came up and said that you can get the Secretary of State and Lavrov to touch their heads first, and the place is right for you, Budapest. What does this mean?
But the magical reality is that in this deal, everyone is in debt, only Ukraine is bleeding.
For Ukraine, this is not a multiple-choice question at all, but an insult question. "Territorial integrity" is written in black and white in the Constitution, and now you want to cut off one of your legs and give it away for an illusory "ceasefire"? How long will this ceasefire last? Who will guarantee it? With what guarantee? If Donetsk is cut today, will Kharkiv be cut tomorrow? Is it time to discuss housing prices in Kiev the day after tomorrow?
The metaphor of a European diplomat is very accurate, which is called “take one leg to silence”.The problem is that the meat-eater smells bloody and just gets more excited, not vegetarian.
So you look at the reaction of Ukraine, absolutely not to accept. You talk to me? I talk to you about military aid. You talk to me about a deal? I talk to you about sovereignty. Translated to me is: don't mess with me with the useless ones, hurry to fill my air defense system and long-range missiles, the old man will be on the battlefield to beat you to take the initiative to sit down and talk about "how to withdraw the army decently", rather than the "how to robbie decently" now.
This creates the next extremely upsetting situation.
Russia, like a vendor of hot potatoes eager to get started, continuously optimizes its "sales talk" and tries to create a trading scenario that favors them best.
The United States, like a savvy middleman, wants to facilitate the deal and eat up the largest brokerage fees (political prestige), does not want to take any risks, and wants sellers and customers to listen to him.
Europe, like a group of surrounding neighbors, was panicked in the heart, both afraid that the movement of the fighting was too big to hit the glass of its own, and afraid that it would be remembered by any party when it was pulled, only to shout "calm" alongside, while silently calculating who won the benefit on the property costs of its own.
And Ukraine is the owner who was stuck at the door and forced to "sell his house to keep safe". His appeal is the simplest and most tragic: this is not my house, this is my home, and I won't give a brick!
So, you ask this game how to go next?
Don’t look at the clothed diplomats flying out on all occasions, saying the words in the mist, the real answer is always on the battlefield.
What you can't get on the battlefield, don't want to get on the negotiating table.This is the only rule of passage in this cruel game.
The so-called "peace plan" is essentially not a dove of peace, but a sounding balloon filled with calculations of interests and temptations of human nature. It was floating in the air, and everyone was staring at it, calculating the wind direction, and weighing the gun in their hands.
Should we shoot it down in one shot or wait for it to leak?
It depends on who has more bullets and whose patience is more valuable.
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