Preliminary
On October 10, the United States was still waving a tariff stick and threatening China.
On October 17th, Trump bowed his head and admitted that the high tariff strategy had failed. On October 18th, US Treasury Secretary Bescent announced that China and the United States would meet.
What happened behind this 180-degree shift?
Trump’s attitude turns.
During an interview on October 17, Trump said a phrase that shocked the world, “The strategy of threatening China with high tariffs is unsustainable,” which contrasts sharply with his tough statements seven days ago.
You know, just on October 10, the president was still threatening to impose a 100% tariff on China. His tone was so tough, but in just seven days later, he admitted in public that the strategy had failed. When he spoke, his eyes were obviously dodging and he was very lacking in confidence.
This dramatic shift asks what happened in the last seven days, what changed Trump so quickly, and what changed inside the White House.
Nearly at the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent also urgently announced that China-U.S. relations had "warmed down" and would hold face-to-face talks with Chinese representatives in Malaysia next week to prepare for a meeting at a higher level.
Interestingly, Bessent emphasized the word “warming down” in particular, but the editorial did not mention any substantive concessions, which were more like finding a ladder for themselves.
The Chinese side did not express gratitude for the "goodwill" of the United States, but simply agreed to "consult as soon as possible", such a deterrent response demonstrates precisely that the Chinese side has ignored the true intentions of the United States.
The timing of this video call was very delicate. It was night in Washington, and the United States actively cooperated with China's schedule. This gesture itself explained a lot of problems.
Looking at the choice of the meeting venue, Malaysia appears to be a neutral venue, but is actually closer to China, this detailed arrangement also reveals subtle changes in the game.
The reaction of the U.S. media is even more interesting, they are all guessing what "tricks" China has actually used to make Trump regain reason so quickly that this confusion itself can explain the problem.
The reaction of Wall Street was even more direct, as the news of Trump’s rush came, the stock market immediately rebounded, and investors finally relaxed, a market reaction that indicated the harm of tariff policies to the U.S. economy.
From the time frame, the China-U.S. tariff "peacekeeping day" was postponed for 90 days in August and will expire in mid-November, and the U.S. is obviously concerned that a worse situation could arise after the expiration.
There have also been divisions within the Trump camp, and many Republicans have begun to disagree with him. This intra-party pressure has forced him to adjust his strategy.
U.S. third-quarter economic "evaluation" is about to come, and Trump needs some good news to stabilize the situation, a political consideration that is also an important reason for his attitude shift.
The deeper reason is that the United States has finally realized that China is not a target for arbitrary pressure. Continued confrontation will only trigger more intense countermeasures, which will ultimately harm U.S. interests.
The urgent attitude of the United States this time is not so much a strategic adjustment as a helpless move. It is an inevitable choice forced out by reality. This cognitive change is the most critical.
It can be said that this seven-day shift is not only a policy adjustment, but also a awakening of cognition, and the U.S. has finally begun to re-evaluate China's strength and determination.
Rare earth ace precision strike
Since China first implemented rare earth control in April, the domestic opposition to the "tough policy towards China" in the United States has continued to rise, and this internal pressure is the first thrust for the change of attitude of the United States.
Known as the "vitamin of industry", rare earths are indispensable key materials for high-tech industries. 90% of refined rare earths in the United States come from China, and the dependence on heavy rare earths is as high as 92%.
The U.S. side is also concerned that the rare-earth inventories of U.S. enterprises will only be enough for 40 to 60 days, and once China does not approve export applications, the production line must be stopped, this real threat makes the White House rush to reunify.
The U.S. Department of Defense has estimated that building a supply chain that does not depend on China will take at least 10 to 15 years, a time gap that makes the short-term response of the U.S. seem pale.
The World Trade Organization’s director-general’s warning is even worse, saying the US-China deconnection could lead to a long-term 7 percent decline in global output, a risk that makes it difficult for the United States to bear the cost of isolation.
Boeing’s warning is more specific, if the supply of rare earth is interrupted, the F-35 fighter aircraft production line will be shut down within three months, with a daily loss of more than $200 million, a specific loss that makes the U.S. feel the pain of the skin.
Industry organizations such as the National Association of Home Builders have clearly warned that tariffs will raise construction costs and drag down the real estate market. This industry pressure has forced Trump to rethink policies.
Wall Street has rebounded strongly from the stock index crash triggered by trade tensions, and the financial market reaction has directly affected Trump's reelection prospects, an economic pressure he has had to consider.
Although Australia has abundant rare earth reserves, it cannot meet the immediate needs of the United States due to lack of processing capacity. The failure of this alternative scheme makes the United States even more desperate.
The Australian Treasury Minister has explicitly rejected the call for "disconnection" with China, saying the establishment of trade barriers is not in accordance with Australia's core interests, which leaves the United States in isolation.
David Dollar, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institute, said: “Rare-earth games show America’s vulnerability in critical supply chains, a strategic disadvantage that can hardly be changed in the short term.”
U.S. industry sources believe that Trump's various sanctions moves are clearly lacking in "power" compared to China, a comparison that has caused the U.S. side to start to rethink its strategy.
China holds about 92% of the world's rare earth separation and processing technologies. The focus of this new regulation is to strengthen the export license management of these technologies, which is more powerful than resource control.
Whether it’s F-35, Patriot missiles, or Tesla engines, these key products rely on China’s rare-earth supply chain, and once the supply chain is cut off, the U.S. will find no alternative in the short term.
This "no substitution" reality, the Trump administration's tariff deterrence lost its bottom, so this time after China refused to yield, forced to "rare ground pressure", the United States has to choose to retreat.
From passive response to proactive shaping
From Bescent's "personal attack", it can be seen that the United States has fallen into passivity, and this gaffe just proves the correctness and effectiveness of China's strategy.
The Chinese side said very clearly in the video call that the exchanges should be "honest, in-depth, constructive", and agreed to consult as soon as possible, but the position has never changed, and the talks can be built on the basis of mutual respect.
This tolerant attitude is in sharp contrast to the urge of the United States, reflecting China’s dominant position and strategic determination in the negotiations.
The concrete manifestation of the transfer of dominance is clear, from the U.S. setting rules to the pursuit of a “fair deal,” a shift in the role that fully demonstrates that the power of speech is inclined toward China.
China's success lies not only in the rare-earth card, but also in the use of the wisdom and timing of this card, a strategic thinking that deserves an in-depth analysis.
From 2017 to 2025, the proportion of China's exports to the United States in its total national exports dropped from 19% to 10%, but the total exports rose instead of falling, which shows that China has successfully completed a "de-Americanization" structural adjustment.
Today, ASEAN, the European Union, the Middle East, and Latin America have become the new main forces of China's exports, accounting for more than 65% in total. This diversification strategy gives China more room for gaming.
Especially within the framework of RCEP, supply chain cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries is more efficient and stable, and this regional cooperation provides solid support for China.
Japan's Ministry of Economic Affairs announced on October 19 that it will strengthen cooperation with Australia in the field of rare earth processing and try to reduce reliance on China, a response that shows that China's strategy is effective.
Compared with the changes in the China-U.S. trade structure in 2018 and 2024, China's share of exports to the United States fell from 19% to 13%, and the share of exports of high-tech products increased to 35%, this structure optimization enhanced China's playing capacity.
China reduces its dependence on the United States by promoting multilateral trade cooperation, making it difficult for the United States to exert unilateral pressure. This multilateralism strategy is an effective means to stop unilateralism.
At the same time, Trump still throws the responsibility to China, claiming that it is China that "forced him to do so", a statement that preserves the space for a follow-up game, but also exposes its helplessness and hypocrisy.
From the arrangement of the call time, the choice of the place, to the setting of the topics, to the control of the pace of the talks, the Chinese side has shown a strong initiative, this detail reflects the wisdom of the game.
It can be said that China has shifted from passive response to active shaping, and this shift in the role is not only tactical, but also strategic.
Chinese wisdom in the era of technological superiority
The Malaysian meeting will become an important window to observe the direction of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, if consensus can be reached on issues such as the period of tariff exemption, the supply chain early warning mechanism framework, this time the Sino-U.S. can reach a breakthrough decision.
But just staying at the “exchange of views” level predicts that subsequent interactions will still be full of play, and this uncertainty requires us to stay awake.
The shift from tense confrontation to orderly consultation has been clearly seen, and the U.S. side's proactive "extinction of fire" is crucial, but this extinction is genuine or strategy still needs time to be verified.
Trump and Bezent’s shift in attitude toward China may not be voluntary, and this compulsivity determines the complexity and longevity of the future game.
Relationship "warming down" is only a phased outcome, and there is no need to have too many fantasies about the Trump administration, this rational judgment is important.
The differences between the “hard” and the pragmatists inside the United States have not yet been overcome, and Bessent’s negotiating powers may be limited, making it difficult to overcome deep differences in market access and industry regulation.
The U.S. side has personally attacked the Chinese negotiating representatives, while urging contradictory actions to demand dialogue, and also exposed a side of its lack of sincerity, such words and actions need to be vigilant.
At the core of the US-China talks, specific issues such as tariff exemptions and mutual exchange of agricultural products imports still need to be gradually discussed by the two sides, which require time and patience.
Challenges mean that the future remains full of uncertainty and require us to maintain strategic focus and tactical flexibility.
Technical advantages have more strategic value than resource advantages, because the latter can be replaced and the former is difficult to replicate, this revelation is important.
The core of modern international game has shifted from military confrontation to technological competition. This trend requires us to deeply understand and actively respond.
The effect of unilateral sanctions is becoming increasingly limited in the era of globalization, a rule that requires our full consideration when formulating strategies.
Strategic determination can win the initiative in the game better than a tough stance. This wisdom needs to be continuously applied in future international exchanges.
The autonomous control of key technologies will be at the heart of national security in the future, and this judgment requires our focus in strategic planning.
Win-win cooperation based on interdependence will replace the zero-sum game. This vision requires us to actively advocate and practice it on the international stage.
conclusion
This game is not only a victory, but also a sign of China's international status.
Future international games will be around key technologies, and independent technology control is at the core.
When you have strength in hand, you must have both the courage to fight and the wisdom of peace.