Military fans are paying attention to the situation in the East China Sea, and the first 180 minutes of a potential conflict become a key window to decide the outcome or defeat.
The situation in the East China Sea is constantly changing, and the Diaoyu Islands dispute and the Taiwan Strait issue are intertwined. If a conflict breaks out between China and Japan one day, the 2-3 hours after the start of the war will become the decisive moment. The pace of modern warfare is extremely fast, and every action taken during this period will directly affect the direction of the entire war situation.
Although the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are relatively well equipped, they are faced with an insurmountable natural disadvantage-the strategic depth of island countries simply does not have as much room for manoeuvre as mainland countries, and they are almost a "natural isolated island". With the gradual maturity of our Dongfeng series missiles and new generation fighters such as the J-20, the ability to accurately strike Japan's air defense network will also be realized in a short period of time, and it will also affect the command of its command system. Capabilities pose a great threat and may even completely paralyze its command system.
The Chinese Navy has developed rapidly in recent years, and the total number of ships is expected to exceed 300 by 2025. Compared to the Japanese Naval Self-Defense Force, although they have advanced equipment such as the Zeus Shields and the F-35, the number is far behind. The Rocket Army’s missile rains can cover Japan’s main military bases, and key nodes such as Nagasaki airport and Yokohama Navy base are extremely vulnerable to first-rate strikes during the war.
The decision-making mechanisms of the Japanese government may be difficult to adapt to the modern pace of war, the bureaucracy has caused the usual decision-making process to be delayed, the ability to quickly make judgments in emergencies is a big question, and Japan has made mistakes in handling the crisis in history, if the start of the war missed the decision-making time, the consequences will be irreversible.
The military system is at risk of instant collapse
The balance of military confrontation has tilted. The total tonnage of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force ships is about 500,000 tons, far behind the China Navy's 2.7 million tons. What does this magnitude gap mean in actual combat? The Eagle Strike-21 missile carried by our Type 055 destroyer can pose a fatal threat to the mobile Japanese fleet at sea.
At the beginning of the war, China may mobilize missiles, fighter planes, and drones to attack key nodes of Japan's defense system through compound strikes. The purpose of this three-dimensional attack is to make the opponent pay attention to one thing and lose another.
The F-15J has been in service for more than 40 years and does not even have the ability to launch active air-to-air missiles, and there is a clear technical gap with China's J-20 and J-16.
Although the US-Japanese Security Treaty stipulates that the United States has a co-defense obligation, the Seventh Fleet is mainly deployed in Guam and Hawaii, and it is difficult to form effective support within 24 hours after the conflict erupted.
Economic lifespan or fatal cuts
It can be seen that Japan's economy is like a fragile "card" with almost all of its material resources that depend on its development from foreign imports, which makes its economy fragile and fragile "weak ribs" apparent at once.
However, we have to admit that our material chain also has a weakness that can easily be "broken"-that is, over-reliance on foreign shipping. Currently, 90% of my country's oil, natural gas, grain and other materials rely on shipping, which provides a great opportunity for the enemy to attack in wartime. For example, the control of the China Navy and its submarines can cut off Japan's economic artery.
Japan's oil inventories can only last for a few months. Once maritime transportation is interrupted, factory closures, stock market crashes, and soaring prices will follow. As major exporting countries, Japan's Toyota, Sony and other large companies will face the crisis of supply chain rupture and may even trigger a wave of bankruptcy.
The financial market reaction will be more sensitive, once the war begins, the daily economy index may fall by 20%-30%, the panic withdrawal of investors will make the yen significantly devalued, the Japanese government bond is high, and the sharp rise in financing costs will worsen.
China is Japan's largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years, and the economies of the two countries are highly interdependent. After the conflict breaks out, this economic link will be instantly broken, and the blow to Japan will be devastating. The disruption of the supply chain of key industries such as semiconductors and automobiles will also affect the global market.
Political and social stability is under great pressure
Military setbacks will immediately turn into political pressure. Anti-war sentiment in Japan has always been strong. After World War II, Article 9 of the Constitution restricted military expansion. Many people were opposed to the war. If Japan suffered heavy losses in the early stages of the war, popular protests may erupt, and street demonstrations and declining government support will become the norm.
Political chain reaction will not be limited to domestic. The international community may condemn Japan, and if Japan is considered to be a causer of conflict, the UN Security Council may pass sanctions resolutions.
And its deeper impact is reflected in the "confrontation" of historical narratives: it can both excavate new historical resources in contemporary historical narratives, but also introduce contemporary historical narratives to the "confrontation" of traditional historical narratives.
As the conflict continues to escalate, Japan’s right-wing forces may also have the opportunity to push the “reform” call to the height, thus taking the opportunity to completely get rid of the historical mark of the “defeated country”, which is not a good sign for long-term stability in East Asia.
Peace is the last shield for those with scarce resources. The interests of China and Japan are intertwined, and conflicts will benefit no one. Former Vice Foreign Minister Xu Dunxin once pointed out that "war will inevitably break out between China and Japan" is nonsense and resolving disputes through dialogue is the right choice.