The situation in Gaza is really what netizens said. "Five cities will be cut today, ten cities will be cut tomorrow, and then you will have to sleep peacefully overnight." Before the ink of the signature pen on the ceasefire agreement was dry, the fighting started again. On Sunday, Netanyahu gave the offensive order. Trump, whose reflex arc is a bit long, doesn't seem to realize until now: Israel is out of control.
According to Israel, the resumption of the war was purely due to Hamas’ rhetoric and violation of the ceasefire agreement. On the same day on October 19, the Israeli army stationed in the port of Rafah, under the ceasefire agreement, was demolishing the military facilities, resulting in a cold gun laid behind by Hamas armed personnel, forced, the Israeli army returned.。
while The statement given by Hamas the day before was that Israel first violated the ceasefire agreement and closed the Rafah crossing to prevent Gaza people from entering and leaving, making humanitarian relief difficult.It is difficult to clarify who did the first thing that violated the agreement. It is inevitable that "the public says that the public is right, and the woman says that the woman is right."
However, this scene of another war was not surprising at all. It could even be said to be commonplace. If the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas had been implemented for a long time, the situation in Gaza would not be what it is now. Israel and Hamas have signed similar agreements before, but each time, it will not last long. Soon, the two sides will fight again.
To put it bluntly, neither Israel nor Hamas wants to give up Gaza.
For Israel, expanding its territory and expanding its living space are genes engraved in its bones. Without enough territory, its survival will always be threatened. Looking around, you will find that among the surrounding places, probably Gaza, there is hope to eat it, but in other places, there is no chance to eat it.
Even if the chance of annexing Gaza is one in a thousand or even one in a thousand, Israel cannot give up.It wants to destroy Hamas through annual wars, and to drive the indigenous inhabitants of Gaza away, and step by step to control Gaza, incorporating the land into its flag.
Hamas is unclear about Israel's ambitions. Of course, it cannot allow Israel to succeed easily. The most important thing is that once Gaza is lost, Hamas will lose its base camp. Without roots, how can it gain a foothold in this area, let alone go to the poker table and be on an equal footing with other players.
The importance of Gaza is obvious, both Israel and Hamas remember this fat meat, and no one wants to compromise, and there is only one end, that is, a daily dispute.
In addition to this, another reason why the war in Gaza is difficult to extinguish is that Israel is not controlled by the United States. The previous ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas can still be enforced for months, and when the situation is better, the Gaza region can also maintain a year or two of peace.
Carefully, it is not difficult to see that the ceasefire agreement has not constrained Israel, and the deep reason behind this is that Israel does not listen very much to U.S. command.
Earlier last month, the Israeli army crossed the border and attacked Qatar. According to Trump: Before the Israeli army action, he had no ideaWhen Qatar was mediating a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel made it so that the United States lost confidence here in Qatar, in the view of Qatar that the Israeli military action was authorized by the United States.
Senior White House adviser Kushner said Israel's action woke Trump up and made Trump realize that Israel was a little out of control, tough measures have to be taken. According to US media reports, Trump sent his own Middle East envoy, Witkoff, to Gaza to supervise the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
Why is Israel out of control? The root cause is that America's control has declined. Especially in the past two years, the strategic focus of the United States has been on Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific region, and has not taken into account the Middle East.
Under this situation, Israel seized the opportunity and began to manipulate the situation in the Middle East at its own pace and ideas. And for the Middle East, the logic and interests of the United States and Israel are not exactly the same.The United States needs a relatively stable Middle East under its own control, while Israel wants more.
Previously Israel's actions and plans in the Middle East, to inform the United States, to be the same frequency with the United States, and even need to get the approval of the United States first.
At the moment, the United States is not only difficult to control Israel, even in some things, in turn, have to seek Israel.At the moment, the United States has no power "multi-line operation", some regional affairs can only be handed over to agents to deal with, the Middle East affairs can only rely on Israel.
Since there is a need for Israel, the United States will naturally not control Israel, but will also help each other, which is the result of a balance of interests.
The United States can't afford to lose Israel in the Middle East, even if the United States is no longer pleasant with the two countries, and can't completely disagree.The United States has been operating in the Middle East for more than half a century, the cost of sinking is too high, now can only be tied to the robbers ship by Israel, in some small things can only help as much as possible, forced to spend a little money.
Not long ago, the US military dispatched bombers to strike Iran's nuclear facilities from a long-range basis. B-2 and earth-penetrating bombs have been developed for decades. Why didn't they use them before, but they had to do this when the Middle East was in a mess? It is precisely because the United States did not want to do this at all, and if it goes wrong, it may cause big international trouble.
In order to preserve Israel and the Middle East, if the U.S. military does not help Israel to defeat these nuclear facilities, and it is not yet known what the U.S. military itself will hit a bigger fist at the time, it is likely that a full-scale war will be launched.
Is it better for the U.S. to go out and collect rubbish than for Israel to ruin itself? Therefore, this time it was the United States that was kidnapped by Israel.
In the future, such a situation, fear that it will be more and more, taste the sweetheads of the Israeli army, the future military program will also become more and more radical.
For the United States, supporting Israel and controlling the situation in the Middle East in the past was indeed a good move for a long time; But now that his ally's wings are hardened, he has his own plans, and he doesn't want to obey the orders of a superpower thousands of miles away. Israel is now more like an old bomb in disrepair, which makes the United States' Middle East strategy full of variables.
Trump faced with such a situation, whether or not, whether or not, is ended up being mocked, is really hard to ride a tiger.