In October 2025, Ukrainian President Zelensky made a third visit to the United States, continuing to seek military aid for the country.
But the "help trip" did not go smoothly, the U.S. President Trump was delayed to provide the "war ax" missiles, and Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier made a more than two-hour phone call with Trump to discuss preparations for the Budapest summit.
The situation in Ukraine, to put it bluntly, seems that the left and right are not people.
At this sensitive moment, Zelensky threw a sentence in an interview with NBC: Russia is the largest country in the world, why take the place of others?
The Black Sea is more than just a landscape, geopolitics is the key word
The so-called territorial issue is ultimately a security issue. Russia's actions may seem like a territory grab, but behind the scenes, the calculation is actually quite clear.
The four eastern Ukrainian states and Crimea are not only geographical leftovers, but are regarded as "security buffers" that cannot be lost from Russia's strategic perspective.
Crimea was already partitioned to Ukraine in 1954, and at that time it was still a Soviet family, and no one thought it would one day split the family.
It was not until the disintegration of the Soviet Union that Russia began to realize that the outlet to the Black Sea had become someone else's.
Crimea is the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters, and for Russia it’s like the South Gate, giving it out is like giving the key to NATO.
The situation is not simple, there are a lot of Russian-speaking population, and the Russian side says it is to "protect compatriots", but the outside world generally believes that this is more like finding a reason for intervention.
The geographical location of these states just forms a "moat", which can buffer the pressure of NATO's eastward expansion. From this perspective, what Russia is fighting for is not land, but strategic initiative.
Donbas is an important industrial town in Ukraine, and Kherson holds important food resources.
If Russia controls these areas, a large piece of Ukraine's economic pillar will be taken away. For Russia, this is not just a military deployment, but also a blow to the overall strength of Ukraine.
Therefore, Russia's intention is actually quite clear: not because of lack of land, but because of fear of being besieged.
In its view, it would rather risk being sanctioned than keep the sense of security "at home".
The Romance of the Three Kingdoms has become a three-party tug-of-war, and no one is willing to give way first
The current situation has entered a dead knot of "if you don't retreat, I won't let you".
The United States, Russia, Ukraine, the three parties each have their own calculators, but no one is willing to compromise first.
Trump's attitude seems to be playing Tai Chi. He verbally supports Ukraine, but is in no hurry to take action.
He proposed the "Helsun-Zaporo-Donbas" scheme, which is viewed by the outside world as a means for Ukraine to seek reconciliation.
Of course, Zelensky did not accept it. He made it clear in public that it was impossible to accept any "capitulation-style" conditions. But the problem is that he can play fewer and fewer cards in his hands.
The U.S. side is not a piece of iron, the military aid budget is dead in Congress, the Republican internal opinions differ, Trump himself is not willing to blame Russia too hard, after all, there is room for negotiation.
As a result, the matter of the "Tomahawk" missile was left hanging, and Zelensky's trip was in vain.
Russia is not determined to fight to the end. Although Putin talks tough, domestic economic pressure is already in front of him. Energy exports are reduced, fuel shortages, and international sanctions are increasing, and Russia is also looking for a way to step down.
Thus, the Budapest summit became a possible “export”, but on the condition that Ukraine should “give in”.
Zelensky hopes to continue to make the United States laugh by "exchanging drones for missiles", but the reality is that European and American aid is becoming more and more cautious. He insisted not to cede any inch of land, but the pressure on the battlefield was increasing every day. In this tug-of-war, anyone who makes a single step may pull the whole body.
From the current point of view, the United States, Russia and Uzbekistan are each testing the bottom line, and no one wants to blink first. But the longer time drags on, the more serious the situation will be and the higher the price will be.
War is not a sprint, it is a protracted "war of attrition"
To put it bluntly, the current battlefield situation has entered a rhythm of "you attack my refinery, and I bomb your granary."
Although the Russian army controls part of Ukraine's territory, its advancement has slowed down, and the Ukrainian army relies on drone strikes to counter it. Neither side could completely overwhelm the other, so it became a tug-of-war between you and me.
This "mutual loss" model not only makes it difficult for Ukraine, but also makes Russia exhausted. And the impact of this conflict has long been beyond the battlefield.
Rising oil prices, blocked food supply chains, and rising import costs in developing countries are all the consequences of the global need to pay together.
Countries in Africa and the Middle East bear the brunt. Ukraine is an important food exporter in the world. The war has restricted agricultural production, and food prices in many places have risen to the point that ordinary people cannot breathe.
As a major energy exporter, Russia's reduction in export volume directly pushes up international oil prices. These two ends work together, and global inflationary pressures continue to rise.
Germany and Poland continue to increase their support for Ukraine, and the EU even pushes to support Ukraine’s reconstruction with frozen Russian assets.
However, the voices in the United States are becoming increasingly divided. On the one hand, there are hawks who support continued aid, and on the other hand, there are doves who advocate "stopping losses." As Trump returns to the stage, uncertainty about U.S. policy towards Ukraine is rising.
Everyone is counting, but the more complicated the account.The longer the war is, the wider the impact, and the cost is increasingly not only the loss of the front, but the rediscovery of the global order.
The price of peace can never be changed by a word.
Zelensky's sentence "Russia's territory is so big, why do you want to rob us of this little land?" Sounded like a question, but in fact it was more like helplessness.
In this tug-of-war, Ukraine wants to maintain its sovereignty, Russia wants a security buffer, and the United States is pulling the balance in the middle. All three parties feel that they are reasonable, and all three parties are afraid that once they give in, the consequences will be uncontrollable.
Peace is not hard to say, it is hard to find who speaks first.The Budapest Summit may be an opportunity, but on the condition that all parties have to calm down, acknowledge reality, and jump out of zero-sum thinking.
For Ukraine, sovereignty is the bottom line; for Russia, security is the bottom line, and if the West still has the illusion of “complete defeat,” it will only push the conflict further.
There is not much land, the key lies in how to keep it; Security depends not on expansion, but more on trust. After all, war is not the only way to solve problems, and peace is not synonymous with compromise.
The end of this conflict may not be on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table.
Whoever can give up the "must win" persuasion first has the chance to win the real future.
Declaration: I look forward to listening to your different opinions and even opposing opinions. The more clear the truth is, thank you for teaching!
Source of Reference:
Trump has been exposed to another fierce quarrel with Zelensky, pressuring the Ukrainian side to accept the “armistice conditions” proposed by Russia. —2025-10-20 09:10; Observer Network