The "fifth negotiation between China and the United States" is about to begin, but Trump hints at compromise: The U.S. or lower tariffs on China in exchange for China¡¯s ¡°concessions¡± on soybeans and rare earth ¨C is this good news for China?

Sino-US negotiations are imminent, Trump hints at tariff compromise?

At the press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on October 20, the media raised the question: ¡°China and the United States are about to return to the negotiating table. According to the latest reports, the United States listed rare earth, phentanyl and soybeans as the three major issues the United States raised to China.

The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is comparative to the official: tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of either party.The two sides should resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and reciprocity.

In an interview on Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would list rare earth, phentanyl and soybeans as the topics of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks.

Trump told reporters at Air Force One: ¡°The United States wants China to buy U.S. soybeans, one thing I want China to do is buy soybeans, I want China to stop the smuggling of fentanyl, you know, these are normal requirements, and I don¡¯t want them to play rare-earth games with me.¡±

Not only that, Trump also said that he hoped China's purchase of American soybeans would return to the previous level.

Since Trump wants to get China's commitment, he should also pay a corresponding price. Trump knows that China will not compromise or make concessions for no reason, so he has repeatedly issued "easing signals" to China recently.

The signals released by Trump are mainly two: First, 100% tariffs between China and the United States are unsustainable, which means that on November 1,There is a high probability that the 100% tariff imposed by the United States on China will not be implemented.

Second, Trump hinted that the door to Sino-US negotiations remains open but not closed.So we see that at the APEC meeting at the end of the month, there is a high probability that the United States will meet with China.

More importantly, before the Sino-U.S. Heavyweight meeting, the Sino-U.S. will also hold the "fifth negotiation" in Malaysia, which has already been accurate.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent told the media that he is expected to fly to Malaysia this week and met with previous China trade negotiators, focusing on issues such as soybeans and rare earths.

This also reflects that China's restrictions on soybeans and rare earths in the United States have become an important bargaining chip for China to "get stuck".

Why is Trump so interested in soybeans and rare earth?

First, China hasn't imported any American soybeans since September, which is "for the first time since 2018".

Due to China's sudden suspension of purchases, American soybean farmers have suffered a devastating blow, and American farmers will face tens of billions of dollars in losses. And American farmers are the so-called "red necks". They are Trump¡¯s ¡°stockhouses.¡± if Trump loses their support, then in the midterm elections, the Republicans will be easily defeated.

As for the role of rare earths, there is no need to say much. Since the National Day, China has tightened the technical and export controls on the entire rare earth industry chain, and has added the function of "long arm jurisdiction" in accordance with international practice.This has resulted in all industries related to rare earths in the United States and the European Union, especially heavy rare earths, being threatened by China.

Even the advanced semiconductor industry chains of European and American countries are under threat from China. As long as China is willing, both sides can fight to the death. Under such circumstances, Trump was forced to negotiate with China.

What will happen at the fifth meeting between China and the United States? Some conjectures that foreign analysts have made. They believe that the United States will lift all new sanctions against China after the fourth negotiation; Second, the United States will completely cancel the 20% tariff imposed on fentanyl.

What China needs to do is to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans and ensure existing rare earth quotas and not restrict the supply of rare earths to the United States without unreasonable reasons.

Despite this, Trump still does not forget to threaten China. Trump told reporters that China now pays 55% tariffs to the United States. If there is no agreement between China and the United States, the US tariffs on China will be as high as 155% on November 1st!

Trump¡¯s threat is also simple, that is, hoping that the result of the negotiations between the US and China will be reached, and if the negotiations are not reached, the US and China will ¡°completely disconnect¡±, which is also Trump¡¯s ¡°extreme pressure.¡±

But for now, Trump¡¯s pressure may not be effective.

First, China is already a country with all industrial categories of the United Nations. Whether it is light industry or heavy industry, China is much stronger than Russia. However, Russia has not fallen in the face of sanctions from the United States and the European Union, let alone China.

Second, China and the United States had already experienced a "substantial decoupling" in the first half of the year that lasted for more than a month. The result was not that China surrendered, but that Trump chose to compromise.

This means that no matter who will cut off trade between the two sides, the cost must be that the United States cannot afford.The United States has no way to adapt to the consequences of ¡°disconnecting¡± with China in just a few months.

Of course, judging from Trump's actions, this American president has begun to quietly compromise. After all, if you really want to put pressure on us and decouple from China, you can completely ignore the Sino-US negotiations.

But now, not only China and the United States are going to talk in APEC, but also in Malaysia, the Chinese and American delegations are going to hold the "fifth negotiation" this year.

Finally, I hope Trump can understand that it is not China begging the United States, but the United States begging China to negotiate. If Trump really doesn't want to, then let's take a look at who can't do without China and the United States first.

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