The Sino-US trade war has entered a white-hot state, and both sides have made all their big moves. At the end of September, the United States almost gave China a stud. On October 9th, China almost overturned the United States with a king bomb. US President Trump, Vice President Vance, Treasury Secretary Bescent, Commerce Secretary Lutnik and Trade Representative Greer took turns to criticize it. Will the United States start a unique move next?
Singapore media joint morning news Chinese network that the U.S. nuclear bomb class is a financial war, to kick Chinese companies out of the U.S. capital market, to kick Chinese banks out of the global bank financial telecommunications association (SWIFT) international settlement system these are all options!
China and the United States have begun to go to death: the United States wants to shoot China, China wants to dry down the United States
China and the United States have begun to make desperate moves. Many friends believe that the multiple king-level rare earth control measures introduced by China on October 9 are more than 20 policies successively introduced by the United States after the Madrid negotiations, as shown in the list below:
These are China's countermeasures against these policies circulated online, but in fact these measures do not get to the point! What sparked China was not these policies. It was the provisional final rule issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on September 29. As long as the parent company is in entities restricted by the United States, subsidiaries with more than 50% of its overseas investment equity will automatically be subject to U.S. sanctions, because it is common practice for domestic companies to cooperate and invest in affiliated companies, and the United States intends to use this method to wipe out Chinese high-tech entities in one go.
The direct consequence is that China's 100 percent holding Anselm Semiconductor will be listed by the United States, the Dutch government intends to avoid this outcome and "robbed" Anselm Semiconductor! This game has shocked the world, the Dutch practice has no difference from the pirates of the year, and is especially stupid, because 50% of the Anselm Semiconductor market and more than 70% of the production capacity plant is in China.
The rule of 0.1% rare earth content introduced by China on October 9 is based on this new rule issued by the US BIS, from the relevant aspects, China is even wider, because the use of rare earth has already involved more than 400 high-tech segments, such as mobile phones, high-end CPUs, missiles and radar, etc., once China has implemented and strictly controlled, the global high-tech field will be paralyzed.
At the same time, China has also introduced superhard materials such as lithium batteries and diamond, which are aimed at the AI industry in the United States and the semiconductor wafer industry dominated by the West. China's energy storage lithium batteries account for more than 90%, and China accounts for more than 95% of the superhard materials needed for cutting and abrasive materials for semiconductor silicon wafers. China's move will also cause a super earthquake in the semiconductor field!
The United States charges a special port fee for Chinese ships, because China builds more ships, shipping companies are large, the United States does not build ships, and is prepared to earn China a penny, as a result of China's retaliation, as long as the U.S. shareholders account for 25% or more, the port fee must be charged.
In addition to these, China also included 14 U.S. entities on the "unreliable entity list" on October 9; on October 10 launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm's completion of the merger with Autotalks in June this year; on October 14 offered to include five U.S. related subsidiaries of Huanwei Ocean Co., Ltd. who abused the U.S. to charge special port fees!
The glass heart of the United States has been broken all over the ground, because no country has ever dared to retaliate against the United States since the end of World War II. Moreover, it still retaliated on the spot and chased the United States in all directions! It has always been the United States that takes care of other countries, which makes the United States really embarrassed. Therefore, from President Trump to Trade Representative Greer, everyone has become incoherent, threatening to collect 100% tariffs or threaten to attack international students. It seems that the United States can do whatever it takes.
The United States has no bottom line to force China, but the result is that China has completely pushed the United States into a hurry. On October 16, Lianhe Zaobao's Chinese website published a report titled "China and the United States Talk While Fighting and Decoupling Becomes Normal" that the cost of complete decoupling between China and the United States is too high for no one to bear, but both sides hope to enter a long-term and slow decoupling under their own advantageous conditions and pace.
Almost all the policies offered by the United States in the high-tech field have been reversed by China, and even China has not given any face in the most advantageous chip field. In September 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation launched an investigation into Nvidia's suspected violation of the Anti-Monopoly Law. Previously, it had also submitted instructions on domestic companies purchasing Nvidia graphics cards. Who dares to get into trouble with this operation?
The U.S. is currently unable to contain China in the “conventional sphere” and even military sphere has been overtaken by China! The U.S. hydrogen bomb class must be a financial war. In addition to removing Chinese companies from the U.S. capital market, a series of financial sanctions can also be implemented, and even kick China out of the U.S.-led World Bank Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) international settlement system.
The United States offers its final trick: Will the United States kick China out of SWIFT?
Of course, nuclear bombs are very fun to use, and the United States has already used them. A physical-grade nuclear bomb bombed Japan during World War II, and a financial-grade nuclear bomb caused Russia to cry. The ease of use of this weapon has an even greater impact on Russia than a military strike. The United States is extremely happy.
On February 26, 2022, the White House issued a statement stating that in response to Russian military actions in Ukraine, the United States and the European Commission, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada decided to exclude some Russian banks from the World Bank Interbank Financial Communications Association (SWIFT) payment system.
On March 2, the European Union announced the removal of seven Russian banks from the SWIFT system, and the ban came into effect on March 12, with seven banks: Otkriti Bank, Promsvyazbank, Rossiya Bank, Novikombank, Sovcombank, Vnesheconombank (VEB) and VTB Bank.
The full name of SWIFT is Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication（World Interbank Financial Communications Association Its essence isA standardized set. Financial information transmission network and protocol, meant to be between banks through the consent of code and message format,Secure and efficient cross-border financial information transmission.
SWIFT also needs to operate in tandem with the US-led clearing system CHIPS (New York Clearing House Interbank Payment System) to achieve the final transfer of funds. For example, when a customer of a European bank completes a payment in U.S. dollars to a customer of another non-U.S. bank, the bank first issues a settlement instruction to CHIPS through the SWIFT system, and CHIPS completes the cross-border clearing of U.S. dollars, thus completing the entire transaction process.
Since its establishment in 1973, SWIFT has become the main communication system for global bank settlements, and by 2024, SWIFT network will cover more than 200 countries and regions, access to more than 11,000 financial institutions, more than 8,000 securities institutions and more than 200 central competitors (such as liquidation stations), and SWIFT will almost not survive!
After Russia was kicked out of SWIFT, it was basically like it had been hit by a dimension reduction. Banks were unable to settle accounts with Western countries, and business could not be done. At the same time, this result also panicked people in Russia. The cash run once exceeded 58 times the average daily average. The ruble exchange rate plummeted, the stock market plummeted, and the related assets of Russia's major restricted banks were "paralyzed."
After nearly two months, Russia gradually gained a foothold through pegging gold to the ruble and relying on hard currencies such as oil and natural gas. Later, Russia gradually resumed part of its international trade through RMB transactions! Russia really remembers this financial weapon, which is almost as strong as a nuclear bomb. During the Russia-Ukraine War, the United States and the West made the world realize that the financial weapons in the hands of the United States are quite extraordinary!
Dare to implement it in China: Analyze the pros and cons to know
Russia is indeed injured because of being kicked out of SWIFT, Biden also proved a bit that the United States is still in possession of the world's most powerful financial weapons, but the growers also tell you that this is probably the worst policy that the United States has introduced, because from the day after the Russian-Ukrainian war Russia was subjected to U.S. financial sanctions, the world's many countries began to decentralize the dollar!
The reason is also very simple. During the Russo-Ukrainian war, the United States not only kicked Russia out of the SWIFT payment system, but also froze a large number of Russian assets. According to public information, G7 member states including the United States and the European Union have frozen a total value of about 325 billion U.S. dollars in Russian assets, which are Russia's dollar and euro assets at the European Clearing Bank and other central banks.
The U.S. dollar has been the main settlement currency for global trade since the Braden Woods system in the 1940s. Even after the collapse of the Braden Woods system in the 1970s, the U.S. dollar quickly anchored bulk goods such as oil and minerals. Countries around the world wanted to enter international trade. If bixu is traded in U.S. dollars, the result can only be reserve U.S. dollars.
According to the different algorithms, it is generally believed that the U.S. earns annually cast currency tax from about $500 to $150 billion. In addition, the U.S. can also play a dollar tide game of interest-relieving interest rates by issuing dollars, relaxing the flow brings prosperity to the region, tightening the liquidity harvest development results, and the U.S. has been stealing global wealth in this way for years!
Another is the reserve of the US dollar after the financial demand, the United States annually issued a lot of U.S. bonds, buy U.S. bonds to earn interest, it sounds like a product of monetary value-added, but in fact, the U.S. debt increases annually far more than the rate of increase of U.S. assets, in other words, the U.S. has a large amount of exceeded the U.S. dollar, with the printed green bills robbed the global wealth, and every country has to reserve, because the global trade settlement currency is the U.S. dollar, you can't get around.
So from the dollar to become the global trade settlement currency, the United States has been chasing the world's wool, countries that dare not say, after all, the U.S. military power is very powerful, financial weapons are like hydrogen bomb-grade weapons. but the Russian-Ukrainian war has made the world realize that the U.S. game is really too much, even if the wool is, now is still robbed!
Therefore, after seeing the methods used by the United States to clean up Russia during the Russo-Ukrainian war, countries have begun to implement local currency transactions, generally through bilateral currency swaps and regional multilateral local currency settlement operations, or offshore local currency market settlement models, which can avoid U.S. dollar risk. The first type can be operated by anyone, while the second and third types need to be supported by certain economic strength. For example, the RMB has this model.
After the Russia-Ukraine War, the proportion of trade traded in local currencies increased significantly, among which the proportion of transactions traded in RMB increased several times, from 1.9% before the Russia-Ukraine War to 6% in July 2024, although this proportion is not high., but the scale is more than three times that of the previous one. Another model is a settlement model that replaces SWIFT. Russia has developed a The SPFS payment system is small in scale, with few users, and the Russian economy is not large in scale, so it cannot become a climate.
China has established CIPS, which is an exclusive RMB clearing system, which mainly solves the problems of "clearing efficiency" and "autonomous controllability" of cross-border RMB payments. As of June 2024, CIPS already has 142 direct participants(covering 44 countries and regions on 6 continents) and Over 13,000 indirect participants(Covering more than 200 countries and regions), although it is not comparable to SWIFT, it is more powerful than SPFS.
China's economy is far larger than Russia's. In 2024, its GDP will reach 19.47 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world in nominal terms and first in the world in terms of purchasing power evaluation index. It is the largest and second largest trading partner of more than 160 countries. At the same time, China's the belt and road initiative has become the widest and largest international cooperation platform in the world; The leading BRICS organization has accounted for more than 20% of the world's trade volume.
At the same time, China is also the largest manufacturing country in the world, accounting for more than one-third of the world. According to predictions by relevant United Nations agencies, China's manufacturing industry may account for more than 40% of the world's manufacturing industry by 2030. Under this background, if the United States wants to kick China out of SWIFT, then due to the trade demand for hard currency products with China's manufacturing industry, countries around the world will flock to join China's payment system, and CIPS will definitely be "forced" to expand its business. It quickly became SWIFT's strongest competitor.
If you want to kick China out of SWIFT, is it not the U.S. suicide? The U.S. kicked Russia out of SWIFT during the Russian-U.S. war has been some regret, then U.S. Fox news host Take Carlson has critically criticized the U.S. policy of financial weaponsization. He believes that “arming” the U.S. dollar is the “most reckless and most destructive” behavior. This approach undermines the stability of the U.S. dollar and impolitics, prompting Russia, China, India, Turkey and other countries to accelerate the escape from the U.S. dollar, and ultimately the harm to the U.S. is far greater than to Russia.
But will this keep SWIFT invincible? Not really! The RMB has long begun to poach the US dollar. Recently, Australia BHP Billiton signed an alliance with China Mineral Resources Group Co., Ltd., agreeing to use RMB transactions! By integrating multiple resources, China has transformed a previously weak resource importer into a party with strong pricing power!
At present, we are only targeting iron ore. Next time, it can be bulk agricultural products, and then coal, natural gas and oil, etc., and the share will gradually increase. These will slowly erode the share of the US dollar. As long as the hoe is wielded diligently, there is no wall that cannot be dug down, this is what the Chinese are best at doing.
So do you think the United States dares to take the initiative to challenge China, a potential hegemon in the financial field, when it comes to kicking China out of the SWIFT trading system? The US dollar can still be maintained without provoking China, but if China is angered, we dare not say anything about replacing the US dollar. However, when the US dollar's share drops sharply, it is certain. Now is the time when the US dollar is in turmoil. Reducing the US dollar's share means reducing the proportion of US debt purchases, which will really kill the United States!