Russian President Vladimir Putin recently threw a new ceasefire proposal in a call with U.S. President Donald Trump, which has been rumored in the international media. According to the Washington Post report, Putin explicitly asked Ukraine to hand over the entire Donetsk state to Russian control in exchange for Russia’s willingness to withdraw troops from parts of the occupied areas of Zaporozhye and Helsinki. It sounded like Putin had prevailed on the battlefield and tried to lock out the results with diplomatic means. Donetsk is the industrial heart of Ukraine, where coal mines and steel plants are a bulk of fat for the Russian economy, control it can stabilize and energy heavy chain.
Compared with a few months ago, this proposal has really narrowed the scope. Looking back at the talks in Anchorage, Alaska in August, Putin opened his mouth at that time, asking Ukraine to cede Donetsk and Luhansk at the same time, and also demanded to freeze other fronts. That negotiation got stuck because Ukraine and Western allies felt it was tantamount to recognizing the legality of Russia's invasion. Now Putin is only staring at one state. On the surface, it seems to be a concession, but in essence he is still betting that Ukraine will not be able to withstand a long-term war of attrition. The Russian army is advancing slowly in the east, but through drone and missile strikes, it has blown up Ukraine's energy facilities to pieces. When winter arrives, civilian life will be more difficult.
Putin's calculations are accurate. He knows that after Trump comes to power, U.S. aid to Ukraine may be discounted. Trump has been clamoring for "America First" and no longer wants to throw money into this bottomless pit. Putin's proposal is stuck at this juncture, taking advantage of Trump's eagerness to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also spread the wind that this was a "pragmatic plan" that would allow both sides to "each claim victory." But from a practical perspective, this set of conditions ignores Ukraine's core demands: territorial integrity and security. After Russia annexed four states, control of Donetsk became the bottom line of their negotiations, and any concessions could be seen as weak by domestic hawks.
International observers pointed out that Putin’s concessions were tactical, not strategic. Russia’s economy was not breathing under sanctions, the ruble devalued, the inflation was high, the number of soldiers killed did not hide anyone. In the first half of 2025, Russia lost thousands of square kilometers of positions, and now with diplomatic change of time, aimed at dragging to Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition. In contrast, Ukraine’s counter-attack has not recovered a large portion of land, but delayed Russia’s footsteps, leaving Putin unable to speed up the war decision.
After Trump returned to the White House, he made ending the war in Ukraine a top priority, which is in line with his campaign promise. On October 16th, he and Putin had a phone call, which was their first direct communication in two months. After the call, Trump publicly said that he planned to hold a summit in Budapest, Hungary, and invited Putin and Zelensky to sit down and talk. On October 17th, Trump's special envoy Steve Whitkoff held a meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, focusing on the population data of Donetsk, suggesting that the majority of Russian-speaking residents there are, and adjusting the border can bring stability.
The White House has disagreed with Putin’s proposals. Some officials think it’s a breakthrough in negotiations and can quickly stop U.S. taxpayers’ money. But more people worry that it will make Ukraine feel betrayed. Trump, at a meeting with Zelensky, outspokenly called for a “local ceasefire,” meaning a step back on the current front line. But Zelensky’s team has repeatedly stressed that any transaction involving territory is not working. Trump also revealed that the U.S. is temporarily not going to provide tactical missiles, which shadows Ukraine’s military aid prospects.
Trump's mediation style, as always, likes big scenes and small tricks. He used the Alaska talks as a starting point. At that time, he and Putin had a face-to-face chat about the territory exchange. Russia promised to freeze the Hersson and Zaporizhne fronts after taking Donbas, and also return scattered land in Sumy and Kharkiv. But now, Trump's patience is weakening. He publicly complains that Europe's aid is too slow. The United States has spent hundreds of billions but has not seen the end. The Budapest Summit has become his new bet. As an Eastern European country, Hungary has a delicate position and can bring Russia and the United States closer together. But it also exposed differences between the United States and Europe. EU countries like Germany and France are more inclined to strengthen sanctions than rush to compromise.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reacted swiftly to Putin's proposal, directly rejecting any territorial concessions. After the White House meeting on October 17, he reiterated through a video speech that Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire on the ground, but the land was not encoded. This is not empty speech, and Zelensky's team had already decided in the early days of the invasion: not negotiating, not surrendering, not dividing. Donetsk's strategic value is not only economic, but also about national dignity, where it is the home of Ukrainian ancestors, withdrawal is equivalent to recognizing Russia's "historical rights and interests".
Zelensky’s stance is rooted in domestic public opinion. Over three years of war, Ukrainian people’s demands for territorial integrity have become stronger and stronger. A poll in the streets of Kiev shows that more than 80 percent of people oppose any cuts, even if this means continuing to be bombarded. Zelensky remains in Kiev’s leadership resistance, relying on this resilience. He pushed for anti-corruption reform and international assistance, making Ukraine a global symbol from the entertainment sector. But the pressure is also great, the army is running out, the economy is down, and the winter energy crisis is imminent. Russian drone attacks take place every day, hospitals and schools are repeatedly targeted, which makes Zelensky’s “victory plan” sound more and more distant.