The Houthi armed forces suddenly announced the calamity, the military ¡°hand¡± was bombed and killed, why would they choose a ceasefire in Gaza?

On October 16th, two pieces of news in the Middle East broke out one after another, and the situation just after taking a breath became tense again.

One is that the Houthi armed forces issued a statement that Chief of General Staff Mohammed Gamari was gone. He died in the "Israeli-US joint" air strike, and even his 13-year-old son and his entourage were gone.

A few hours later, Israeli Defense Minister Katz confirmed that Gamali was killed in an Israeli airstrike on August 28.

On October 13, Trump and other talents in Egypt made guarantees on the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and the agreement came into force a few days later, the Israeli military even began to withdraw according to the agreement to the agreed border.

As a result, bad news suddenly came from the Houthi armed forces, and Israel quickly recognized the credit for the "beheading". What is the profound meaning of this?

It is said that Israeli troops bombed the Houthi government office building in Sana'a at that time. Houthi responded that administrative chief Ahmed Rahawi and other senior officials died and did not mention a word about Gamali's situation.

The statement issued by the Israeli Defense Army the next day was also vague, saying only that "the killing of several senior military officials, the concrete outcomes of the battle have to be confirmed", did not explain.

Funny here, Gamali is not an ordinary character, since 2016 he has been in charge of the Houthi military, the Red Sea attack ships, drones fighting Israeli mainland, basically he commanded.

According to Israel's past temper, such a big victory should have been publicized in a high profile long ago. How could it be hidden?

One of the reasons may be that at that time, Houthi had just spoken of retaliation for the death of Rahawi, and the US-British coalition forces were still intermittently bombing Houthi targets in Hodeida. If it was revealed that "the Chief of Staff is also gone" again at this time, the internal military morale of Houthi will be in chaos, but in turn, it will force Houthi to fight back with all their might.

Israel obviously did not want to completely break out with Houthi at that time, so it deliberately left a gap saying that "the results of the war have to be confirmed". This was actually paving the way for the future.

More importantly, Israel has chosen the time to officially declare a ceasefire.

After the ceasefire agreement came into effect, the situation quietly changed. People in northern Gaza began to move back, and the international community was staring at whether the ceasefire could be renewed.

There is also Red Sea shipping, before the Houthis attacked almost 200 ships, shipping companies can't handle the price increase, and in mid-October there have been shipping companies began to think about "whether to restart the Red Sea route."

At this point, Israel jumped out and said that "the Houthi chief of staff was bombed two months ago," too intentionally.

This move contains at least three layers of calculations.

During the ceasefire, Houthi has stopped the attacks on Israel, and also wants to use this force as a "peace promoter".

Israel's throwing out the news of Gamari's death at this time is equivalent to directly debunking the Houthis' "confidence". Even the military core is gone, so what can we talk about "counterattacking"?

Moreover, although Houthi's newly appointed successor, Yusuf Madani, has been listed as a "terrorist" by the United States, his overall command experience is far worse than Gamali, who has been in charge of the military for nine years. Israel is deliberately amplifying Houthi's "command fault."

Look at the second layer and give the shipping market a "reassurance".

After checking the information of the Red Sea route, it usually has to carry 12% of the world's trade volume. When the Houthis attacked ships before, many shipping companies had to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, and the cost was 30% more in vain.

Now the ship's company is hesitating "whether to re-ship," and Israeli officials announced "the core commander of the Houthis has long passed," in fact suggesting that "the security risk of the Red Sea has decreased", wanting the ship's company to rush back.

After all, the international community¡¯s economic pressure on Israel is largely caused by the chain reaction of blocked shipping.

There is also the third level of calculation, knocking mountains and shaking tigers.

Kamari's relationship with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been close, and the Houthis can do so many distant strikes, and there is no less support from Iran behind them. Israel at this time, not only to the Houthis, but also to the Iranian, Lebanese Hezbollah "Iranic camp" even if Gaza ceasefire, the liquidation is still to be settled, don't feel breathing.

Interestingly, the Houthi side is also fighting information warfare.

Why didn't they announce the news of Gamari's attack and death in August, and have to wait until now?

To be honest, it is likely that the soldier's morality is unbearable.

It's different now. During the ceasefire, everyone hoped for peace. At this time, saying that "Gamari died in a joint Israeli-US air strike" can not only pretend to be a "victim of the ceasefire", but also push Israel into "destroying peace." Push the label.

But Israel is clearly taking the pace of public opinion.

Hussein has just stated that Katz immediately acknowledged that he did not allow the "United States of America" claim to be fermented, but also shaped himself as a "anti-terrorist talent".

What's better is that he specifically emphasized that Gamari was "severely injured after the August air strike", which is equivalent to removing the suspicion of "taking the initiative to open fire during the ceasefire period." He did not violate the ceasefire agreement, but also showed off his muscles, occupying both ends.

It becomes clear that Israel did not "fail to hold back" at all, but split the "beheading operation" into two steps: "action in August + official announcement in October", and each step calculated the situation accurately.

The peaceful atmosphere brought by the ceasefire in Gaza has instead become the best backdrop for it to amplify the outcome of the war, crushing the morality of the opponent, stabilizing the expectations of the outside world, and deterring potential threats.

Now the Houthis have asked Madani to take over, saying that they will "let Israel wait for dark days." Although Israel has withdrawn some of its Gaza troops, it still holds 53% of Gaza.

Looking back at this whole process, what is most worth pondering is not who wins and who loses, but that peace in the Middle East has never been determined by the "ceasefire agreement". Behind every seemingly accidental action here, there is a hidden calculation in the bones. The game of interests, and this game may not last for a long time.