Pakistan’s recent passenger order has focused on millions of Afghan refugees at once. This has not happened suddenly, it’s long gone. Starting in October 2023, the Pakistani government has launched an illegal foreign repatriation program, mainly aimed at those without papers, asking them to roll around before November 1. At that time there were about 1.7 million Afghans affected. To be honest, behind such a big move, it was Pakistan that felt that the economic and security pressures brought by these refugees were too great. Over the past forty years, they have hosted one of the world’s largest refugee groups, with a peak of more than 3 million, but now economic difficulties, political stability and indeed unbearable.
In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and a large number of Afghan refugees fled to Pakistan. Pakistan was then renowned for its generosity, and the international community gave much praise and assistance. UNHCR data showed that Pakistan had borne the burden alone over the years, but it failed to effectively control cross-border militants outside Kabul, aggravating Pakistan's security problems. After the Taliban regained power in August 2021, a new wave of refugees, economic distress and political repression allowed more people to flee. The Pakistani government felt that this was not only a humanitarian issue but also involved in domestic security, so the policy began to turn to forced return.
In November 2023, the repatriation operation was officially launched. Official reports show that 29,000 people crossed the border into Afghanistan the day before. Pakistan has opened 49 detention centers across the country, which have medical care and food, with special care for children, women and the elderly. Caretaker Home Minister Salfraz Bugerty stressed at the time that these people would not be manhandled. But the reality is that many Afghans have taken root in Pakistan, have children, and thrive in the local labor market and small businesses. For them, this is not a simple return to China, but another forced displacement. Experts suggest that they should be dealt with in categories: those with legal status should be given a way of residence, while others should be repatriated after Afghanistan stabilizes. But Pakistan was in a hurry to solve the pressure and didn't wait that long.
In 2024, this matter will enter the second stage. In March, Pakistan announced that it would continue to implement 800,000 people holding Afghan citizenship cards and set up more border points to speed up the process. According to United Nations data, about 60,000 people were repatriated that year. By the end of the year, the cumulative return exceeded 500,000. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan confirmed that the registration certificate card was extended until June 30, 2025, in response to international pressure. But on the whole, the repatriation didn't stop. The Taliban government has opposed it from the beginning, saying on October 4, 2023 that this is unacceptable and that Afghans should not take the blame for Pakistan's security problems. The Kabul authorities set up reception points, but resources are short, and there are many problems of unemployment and hunger.
On October 19, 2025, the situation became even more tense. The recent escalation of the Pakistan-Afghan border conflict, which killed dozens of people on both sides. The United Nations called for a lasting cease-fire, but the Pakistani government decided to shut down all Afghan refugee camps and no longer extend the stay. Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Defense Minister Havajah Aliyev stressed that there should be a dignified return, but this is behind the escalation of tensions between the two countries. Pakistan accused the Taliban of failing to contain cross-border militants, while the Taliban in turn denied responsibility. As a result, the refugees became a bite. The latest UN Refugee Agency report showed that Pakistan currently has 1.4 million registered refugees, plus the total number of those with no evidence
The situation at the border is a mess. Like the Dolham and Tolkham crossings, trade was disrupted and trucks lined up in long lines. An emergency update on October 14 showed that more than 5 million Afghans have returned from Pakistan and Iran, including 1.088 million from Pakistan. In August 2025, Pakistan began repatriating registered refugees and closed 28 camps. In September, voluntary returns increased, but the mandatory part was still the main force. Karachi and other places suspended some operations because of border tensions, but the overall advance did not stop. Security forces searched villages for undocumented people, transported them to centers and then repatriated. In Afghanistan, the Taliban have set up temporary camps, but medical and educational resources have not kept up, causing many returnees to fall into poverty.
Speaking of the economic impact, Pakistan has been alone for more than forty years, and international aid has been there, but far from enough. The UN report notes that Pakistan has received funding, but now turns to compulsory measures, because of domestic economic difficulties and political turmoil. Refugees have integrated to the local, contributed labor force, but also aggravated social security, education and medical burden. AFP reports that since the beginning of October 2023, more than 16,5 million Afghans have left, and by 2025 this number has doubled several times. The international community calls for Pakistan to integrate deportation into the humanitarian framework, actively seeking aid, but Pakistan insists on security priority.
What does returning to Afghanistan mean for refugees? After the Taliban came to power, women's rights were restricted, ethnic minorities faced discrimination, and the economic collapse led to high unemployment. According to United Nations data, vulnerable groups account for a high proportion of returnees, and they are worried about personal safety and psychological trauma. According to experts' analysis, if the stability in Afghanistan is not ensured, such a large-scale repatriation may lead to a new humanitarian crisis. Although Pakistan's decision is reasonable, it ignores the deep social ties of these people. Many Afghans were born and raised in Pakistan, and leaving is equivalent to reshaping their lives.
Amnesty International has repeatedly called for monitoring the return process to ensure dignity and humanity. Amnesty International noted that the illegal foreign repatriation program for 2023 was three-stage, and has now come to an end but has far-reaching implications. Reuters that the Taliban government saw this as a tool of retaliation and should not politicize the refugee policy. Donor countries such as Europe and the United States expressed concern and demanded that Pakistan find a balance. In June 2025, the cumulative return of 108,8 million, with more than 2 million returned from Pakistan and Iran in August. That figure is behind countless families dispersed, children’s education interrupted, and women’s job searching difficult.
Pakistan's position is understandable, and they are disappointed by Kabul's inaction. But refugees are not political chips. Islamabad should pull the international community together to share financial and diplomatic pressure. Now is the time to turn verbal support into actual assistance, including financial support and long-term stability commitments. Otherwise, this policy change will not only affect the fate of refugees, but also shake regional stability and Pakistan's international image.