On the 19th local time, the Israeli army attacked the Palestinian Gaza Strip, saying that the move was due to the violation of the ceasefire agreement by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). Hamas denied Israel's claims and accused Israel of repeatedly breaking the ceasefire. On the evening of the 19th, the Israeli army announced that it had resumed the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement after "launching retaliatory attacks" that day.

Regarding Israel and Hamas accusing each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, does this situation indicate that the ceasefire has existed in name only? Egypt also said that Israel has no intention of advancing the second phase of the ceasefire. How will the situation between Palestine and Israel develop next?

Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:The Israeli-Hamas ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on October 19 was the worst since the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.

Although we have seen both sides maintain a certain degree of restraint and say to abide by the ceasefire agreement, I think this incident still clearly reflects the vulnerability and instability of the current ceasefire in Gaza.

First of all, from the perspective of the ceasefire itself, it is still relatively difficult to start and advance the second phase of negotiations on the ceasefire in Gaza. What people often call the ceasefire in Gaza is actually only the first phase or temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which focuses on the release of each other's detainees. The main demands of both sides for Hamas are to achieve a complete withdrawal of Israel's troops and end the war; For Israel, it is necessary to realize the demarcation of Hamas, but these core demands have not been realized.

These problems will be left to the second stage of negotiations to be solved, so now the outside world's expectations for the success of the second stage of negotiations are actually very low. Once the second stage can't be started smoothly, or can't achieve effective results after it is started, then the possibility of both sides returning to conflict and rekindling war is not small.

Second, from the factors of the conflict, the struggle for ground governance in Gaza is now more intense.

Hamas¡¯ primary strategy after the first phase of the ceasefire was to regain control of Gaza soil. Then Hamas was re-deploying its forces and deploying them to some of the areas of the Gaza Strip that Israel had withdrawn, while fighting some of the anti-Hamas family armed and tribal militias that emerged in the Gaza Strip or are competing with Hamas. Israel¡¯s tendency to regain Hamas¡¯ control of Gaza was highly alert, and Israel was openly or covertly protecting and supporting the family armed and tribal militias in the Gaza Strip to try to suppress Hamas.

So now we see that the conflict between Hamas and Israel, the conflict between Hamas and the anti-Hamas forces inside the Gaza Strip, and Israel¡¯s support for the anti-Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip, these factors intertwined, making the possibility of a new outbreak of conflict in Gaza impossible to ignore.

In combination with these factors, the situation in Gaza is being impacted by multiple negative factors, and the sustainability of the ceasefire is being increasingly challenged.