The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than three years, and the war has spread from Europe to the global economy. No one expected that this tug-of-war would allow some countries to reap the benefits of the fishermen. Both Russia and Ukraine lost, and Europe was in an energy crisis, but the United States quietly became the big winner. As the largest developing country in the world, China wanted to steadily promote peaceful development, but the result was the most deeply affected. Up to now, who is fueling the flames behind the battle and who is paying the price.
Russian conflict escalates.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, initially advancing rapidly, but Ukraine retained a key position. The battle outside Kiev in the north was fierce and the Russian army failed to win quickly. The southern and eastern fronts were stretched, and cities such as Mariupol could not be attacked for a long time. Ukraine used anti-tank missiles and rocket systems assisted by the West to reverse parts of Harkov state land. In the autumn of 2022, the surroundings of the city of Helsinki were recovered and the Russian army withdrew.
In 2023, despite progress in Ukraine's summer counterattack, but failing to break the main defense line, Russian troops seized individual towns in the north. In 2024, Ukrainian cross-border attacks on Kursk, Russian troops slowly advanced in Donetsk. Russian losses exceeded 300,000 soldiers, equipment consumed enormously. Ukrainian urban infrastructure was badly injured, civilians were badly injured. Western aid gradually escalated, from defensive equipment to tanks, missiles and fighter jets, the pace continued to accelerate. Russian troops exposed logistics problems, military strength was reevaluated.
Russia’s energy exports are blocked, Europe turns to U.S. liquefied natural gas. Global food prices fluctuate, oil prices rebound. China’s food and energy import costs rise. Conflict is delayed, Russia’s national strength declines, overseas influence decreases. The United States fills space in the Middle East and Africa. Asia-Pacific countries rely on increased arms, Japanese military spending rises to $55.9 billion, and the Philippines opens up U.S. military bases. Regional security order is disturbed, and the arms race intensifies. China needs to pay attention to these changes and promote diplomatic stability.
U.S. strategic intent has succeeded.
The United States benefits the most from conflicts and contains Russia without directly participating in the war. Tens of billions of dollars aid to Ukraine every year, and Russian military resources are consumed a lot. Russia's elite troops were damaged, advanced equipment was destroyed, and its economy was in trouble due to sanctions. The population of young and middle-aged people has dropped sharply, and the country's potential has been overdrawn. The U.S. military industry has made a lot of money and energy exports have increased significantly. European natural gas prices plummet and the U.S. LNG share rose. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has allowed the United States to integrate with the West. European countries have realized their lack of defense and have increased their military spending closer to the United States.
NATO has recovered from brain-death, and member states have increased spending. Russia’s energy leverage has failed, and Europe has surpassed the winter shortages of 2022 and 2023. Russia’s overseas influence has weakened, and the U.S. has advanced its interests in Syria, Africa and Latin America. Iran’s relationship with China and Russia is stable, but the U.S. relies on consuming its opponents. The Russian-Ukrainian war has accelerated a new round of Western integration, and the U.S. has increased pressure on China.
China-US-Russia tripartite relations change, the United States supports Ukraine, Russia depends on China deepen. The conflict escalates for more than three years, and the United States becomes the biggest beneficiary, collecting profits through energy trade and arms aid. Europe is deep in the mud, but the American international credibility is not damaged. The United States uses the conflict to rob the world, stir up the wind. The United States has aided Ukraine over $100 billion, and more are on the way.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has seriously affected Sino-US relations and has entered a protracted battle of strategic games. China needs to be vigilant about the United States 'global strategic layout.
China needs to be alert to potential risks
China has been deeply affected by the conflict, and the arms race in the Asia-Pacific region has intensified.
The cost of importing grain is also rising, and Russia and Ukraine are the main producers of food, and transportation in the Black Sea is blocked. China is heavily dependent on imports, corn and soybean prices are fluctuating. Energy prices are rising, and China, as a major importing country, is under pressure for oil prices. In 2022, oil prices are rising more than a hundred dollars per barrel, affecting people's livelihood. After 2023, global grain prices are high, China turns to Brazil's procurement. Iran's oil exports to China are growing, highlighting China's market dominance.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has weakened Russia's national strength and hindered China's strategy. Europe is more dependent on the United States, and its Asia-Pacific allies unite to contain China.
World peace is not easy.China must stand firm on its own foot and promote a global fair order.