The United States has more and more diverse means to suppress China's high-tech industries, such as tariffs, mechanical technical restrictions, and even trying to unite allies to "decouple" the industrial chain. However, there is one thing that they can't get around-rare earths. It is China that dominates the global supply of rare earths.
On October 17, local time, British broadcaster BBC said in an article that the United States is not counting on the rare earth issue. Even if allied countries form the so-called "rare earth alliance", it is far from a year or two to really get rid of reliance on China.
The BBC meant to persuade Trump, rather than the real point, to no longer think of the strong and hard gestures to force China to make concessions. because if it really goes at this pace at the moment, the loss is probably the United States itself.
Rare earths hold the nerve of the United States
This dispute around rare earth, after all, is a shortcut in the long-term technology game between China and the United States.The United States wants to maintain its leading position in the global high-tech field, and rare earth is the most typical of them.
The rare earth itself is not uncommon, there are reserves around the world, but the process of refining, processing, classifying it from the primary minerals and then using specific industrial products is very complex.
China, on the other hand, has mastered a complete system from upstream mining to downstream refining. This kind of integrity in the industrial chain is the real "trump card".
When the trade friction between China and the United States escalated, especially after China began to strengthen its management of rare earth exports, the United States realized the seriousness of the problem.
Particularly those industries that rely on high-performance electronic components, aircraft engines, and military radars, suddenly discover that once the supply of rare earth is limited, it is not only so easy to shut down, but the entire system can be paralyzed.
Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with China's rare earth policy on an international occasion, and even fiercely criticized China.
This statement has sparked great diplomatic concern and exposed U.S. concerns about the supply of rare-earth land, but rare-earth resources belong to the national strategic scope, and protection and rational use are affairs within the scope of China's sovereignty.
Joining forces with 31 countries, the "rare earth alliance" between the United States and Europe becomes even more difficult
In the face of China's rare-earth control, the United States is reluctant to respond passively.
Thus, the Trump administration sought to bring together allies such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Australia to build a “de-Chinese” supply chain of rare earths.
Rare earth refining itself is a highly polluting and high-cost industry, which requires long-term technology accumulation and a large amount of capital investment.
The dual pressure of Western countries on environmental protection and cost control makes it difficult for them to deploy on a large scale like China. Even if companies are willing to try, it will be difficult to bear the risk of long-term losses.
Second, countries do not have exactly the same strategic goal on this issue. For example, Europe hopes to follow a green route and is unwilling to destroy its own ecology for rare earth mining. Japan and South Korea are more concerned about supply stability than autonomous capabilities, while the United States is determined to get rid of dependence.
This discrepancy makes the so-called “alliance” look more like a loose coordination mechanism than a cooperative capable of acting quickly.
More importantly, even if these countries are willing to invest in resources to truly build a complete system of rare earth supply from scratch, it will not be possible in a short time.
From resource exploration, factory construction, technical research to market distribution, every step takes time. China has already taken more than one step ahead in this respect.
That's why the BBC said that even if the United States and all its allies work together to truly have the ability to compete with China according to the current technological and industrial base, it will take at least five years.
Five years, for the rapidly changing technological and economic landscape, is a window of time enough for the industrial chain to be completely redesigned.
China plays a "rhythm card", the United States is difficult to retreat
China's response to the rare earth issue is not just a simple restriction on exports. What is deeper is rhythm control. China adjusts export approvals, strengthens centralized management of industries, and enhances the added value of products.
This sense of rhythm is reflected in several aspects.China began to repair the rare earth industry a few years ago, combat illegal mining, integrate small enterprises, and gradually increase industrial concentration.
There is also the soundness of foreign policies. China has not "blocked" rare earths across the board, but has adopted a conditional and rhythmic approach to regulation. This approach not only keeps the bottom line, but also gives the other side room to negotiate.
And for the United States, the problem now is that continuing to harden will only make rare earth problems a new source of risk.
Especially in the context of increased domestic inflation pressure and blocked manufacturing recovery, any "card point" in the supply chain will be amplified into a political issue.
The reason why British media suggested that Trump "calculate" is not the position of China, but the judgment made from a real point of view.
Continuing to use the rare earth issue as a game tool is actually betting on one's own industrial interests.
The negotiation window remains, but the initiative has shifted
It is worth noting that although the US side has spoken fiercely in public, it has not completely sealed the door to negotiations in practice.
Recently, the United States has been seeking opportunities to communicate with China and seeking "technical solutions" to the supply of rare earths. This shows that even though the political stance is still tough, the economic reality still plays a role in checks and balances.
When faced with key resources, China prefers the "limited openness, strategic self-protection" approach. This approach is easier to understand in the current international landscape.
If the United States can adjust its strategy, reduce unnecessary confrontation, and show more flexibility on issues such as tariffs and export restrictions, there is not no room for cooperation between China and the United States. After all, rare earths are not a country's problem, but the lifeline of the global high-tech industry.
But the reality is that if the United States continues to stage the "decoupling" drama, it may gain some domestic political points in the short term, but in the long run, it will only make it more difficult for the United States.
China has long gone ahead, but the United States is on its way.
The core behind the rare earth dispute is actually the difference between the two strategic thinking. China is more inclined to deploy and integrate the system in advance, and firmly hold key resources and industrial chains in its hands.
The United States is accustomed to responding quickly after problems arise, using administrative means, but lacks long-term strategic coherence.
For example, in recent years, China has not only strengthened the construction of local industrial chains, but also actively deployed resources overseas. Rare earth and cobalt mining projects in Africa, Southeast Asia and other places have become part of China's resource security system.
The United States relies more on the market mechanism, hoping to "exchange efficiency through the market", but on the issue of strategic resources, this approach is increasingly unable to do so.
As the BBC says, even if 31 countries join forces, they cannot replicate China’s industrial system in a short period of time, and in today’s global political and economic environment, coordination between countries is far more difficult than expected.
This also means that when the U.S. wants to tackle the rare-earth problem, it’s not about having enough allies, but whether it’s willing to make strategic adjustments.
Whether to continue to regard China as an opponent or seek pragmatic cooperation in key areas is not only related to rare earths, but also the overall pattern of future scientific and technological competition.
For the United States, whether it can put aside ideological prejudice and return to policy judgment based on reality is the key to breaking the situation.
China has proved with practical actions that the initiative can be gained by accumulation, rather than by shouting slogans.
If the United States really wants to solve the problem, it is better to listen to the British’s exhortation and stop fantasizing with pressure for concessions. Because in this round of resources, the rhythm is no longer in their hands.
The reference information:
"Even if the United States and all its allies regard rare earths as a national project, it will take at least 5 years to catch up with China"-Observer.com 2025-10-17 15:53