Under the tremendous pressure from all walks of life in the United States, US President Trump finally let go and was willing to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China's satisfaction of his two wishes.

A few days ago, Trump talked with reporters on the presidential plane about the possible meeting between Chinese and American leaders during the APEC meeting. He told reporters that the U.S. government will strive to achieve the goal of reducing taxes on Chinese goods, but China must give the United States some returns, at least to resume buying American soybeans and change its position on rare earths.

The two aspirations of Trump are the primary objectives that the United States wants to through the face-to-face speech of the Chinese and American leaders.

China¡¯s counter-reaction to the United States in several areas, in response to the threat of Trump tariffs, Trump himself actively cited soybeans and rare earth, indicating that China¡¯s counter-reaction in these two areas is the biggest shock to the United States, and Trump can now not ignore the possible consequences.

The United States is currently in the soybean harvest season. At this time in previous years, a large number of grain ships will load goods on the coast of the United States, and at least half of the grain ships will ultimately destination for China.

For example, in 2024, the United States exported 52.2 million tons of soybeans, of which 52 percent, or about 2,700 tons, were sold to China.

However, with China's tax increase on American agricultural products, American soybeans have lost their original competitiveness, and more cheaper Brazilian and Argentine soybeans have poured into China, seizing the soybean market that originally belonged to the United States.

China is also the world's largest soybean importer. It is difficult for the Trump administration and exporters to comprehensively restructure the soybean export system within a few months and sell tens of millions of tons of soybeans to other countries.

U.S. officials predict that if China does not resume U.S. soybean imports by mid-November, the U.S. will completely lose 16 million tons of orders, most of which will not be sold, and may be stored in warehouses.

While the U.S. only earns more than $20 billion a year from soybean exports, the delay in soybean exports directly harms the interests of the vast majority of U.S. agricultural practitioners, who are Trump¡¯s and the Republican party¡¯s basics.

If China cannot resume soybean imports in time, resulting in damage to basic interests, the Republican Party will inevitably receive fewer votes in next year's mid-term elections.

Let's talk about rare earths. Rare earths are the lifeblood of many industries such as U.S. military industry, semiconductors, and automobile manufacturing. Without a stable supply of rare earths, many factories can only temporarily suspend production, which touches many American interests such as military interest groups, Silicon Valley technology companies, and Wall Street consortiums. The interests of interest groups.

These interest groups will put pressure on the White House in a variety of ways, and without the financial support of these interest groups, the Republican situation in the midterm elections will be even harder.

Moreover, slowing production under long-term shortages will have a series of negative effects on the U.S. military and technological hegemony system.

For example, without sufficient supply of rare earths, the production of ammunition such as air defense missiles in the United States will inevitably slow down. The US military will not be able to replenish the stocks consumed in assisting Ukraine and Israel in time, which will directly weaken the US military's ability to carry out protracted operations.

The U.S. military and politics are aware of the potential crisis and are asking the Trump administration to come up with a solution.

It can be said that Trump's current concession is an inevitable choice under multi-faceted pressure, and it once again proves the accuracy and effectiveness of China's counter-measures.

Going back to the conditions proposed by Trump this time, China's tariffs on agricultural products such as soybeans are mainly countered by Trump's tariffs on China under the pretext of Fentanyl, so as long as Trump is willing to relieve related tariffs, China will consider mutual lifting countermeasures.

However, tariff reductions and exemptions alone are not enough for China to lift control on rare earth exports. Trump must control the measures corresponding to the US technological blockade against China.

In early October, China introduced a series of rare earth control measures, which were a direct countermeasure to the new regulations introduced by the United States at the end of September, expanding the scope of export restrictions on Chinese companies, and implementing unilateral long-arm jurisdiction measures on many products such as semiconductor equipment and chips.

If Trump wants China to appropriately relax export controls on rare earth, he must stop long-arm jurisdiction and allow China to normally obtain semiconductors and other related products from the international market. Trump has not yet expressed this willingness.

Therefore, we need to be cautious about Trump's easing attitude now. Only after the United States really shows enough sincerity can China satisfy some of its wishes.

It is also unlikely that Trump will completely lift the technological blockade on China, and the United States should still maintain certain export restrictions on the most cutting-edge semiconductor technologies.

Correspondingly, China will continue to control the export of rare earths in the military industry and crack down on industries such as military manufacturing in the United States for a long time. The two sides should maintain the conditions reached in the previous framework agreement on the issue of rare earths and semiconductors.

Overall, Trump's "two wishes" seem simple, and in reality involve the sensitive nerves of the Sino-American strategic game.

In this game, China's counter-measures have accurately touched the pain points of the United States. If the United States fails to show enough sincerity, it will not only be difficult to achieve what it wants in soybean orders, but also be unable to easily solve the rare earth dilemma.

This round of clashes between China and the United States is destined not to end in unilateral concessions, but only in a long-lasting strategy to find that fragile and realistic balance.