Trump spoke, Modi gave him "a lesson". the U.S. president in the public event said that India has promised not to buy Russian oil, and as a result of less than three days, India not only bought oil licenses, but also bought more than before.

At the same time, the Indian side also through the media, saying that it will never sell the rare earth imported from China to the United States. this set of operations people look shocked, Trump just wanted to show a diplomatic achievement, was hit by the face of India.

The United States wants India to stand, but India wants to remain flexible; China does not want to be besieged, but India has to gain from it.This makes up the complex chessboard today, and India's two steps - buying Russian oil and protecting rare earth - actually exposed Modi's strategic intentions.

In fact, India has done so, it is not an impulse at all, it is a profit account. First of all, when it comes to buying Russian oil, the United States has long watched India, while imposing tariffs of up to 50% on India, while forcing India to stop buying Russian oil, open the market for agricultural products, wanting to make India a good stand. But the United States does not understand that India is an energy-consuming power, oil imports are huge, and Russian oil can be much cheaper than the international market price, can save 89 dollars per ton. Moreover, India processed these low-cost Russian oil into oil, turn their hands to the European countries, can still make an excess profit, this stable and unprofitable sale, how can Modi give up?

And the pressure of the U.S. itself is full of contradictions, while holding the tariff bars threatening India, while also wanting India to strategically cooperate with itself to balance China, this "to beat and listen" logic, completely upset Modi. Ironically, Trump later said himself to Modi phone call, got the stop-up of Russian oil guarantee, the result of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs directly knocked out the lies, saying that the leaders of the two countries recently did not pass. This wave of operation not only hit Trump's face, but also clearly tell the United States: India's energy policy only look at its own interests, not the United States can be placed.

Let's talk about the rare earth move, and the doorway here is even deeper. Rare earths are the "vitamins" of modern science and technology, and electric vehicles, smart phones and military equipment are indispensable. However, China's position in the field of rare earths is almost monopoly-more than 70% of the world's output and 86% of the refining and processing capacity are in hand. The United States itself has long been overwhelmed by China's rare earth export controls, importing more than 20,000 tons of rare earths every year. The national defense and technology industries are all supported by imports, so it wants to find India as a "middleman" and re-export rare earths to China through India to continue its life. But the United States has forgotten that India itself is also a "rare earth dependent household".

Although India claims to have 6.9 million tons of rare earth reserves, ranking third in the world, its mining and processing technology is too backward, and its output only accounts for 0.7% of the world, which cannot meet its own needs. From fiscal year 2023 to 2024, India bought a total of 2270 tons of rare earth metals and their compounds, 60% of which came from China; from fiscal year 2024 to 2025, it imported 870 tons of rare earth magnets, worth more than 3 billion rupees, relying on these to support domestic emerging industries such as electric vehicles and electronics manufacturing.

More importantly, China has long introduced strict export controls. As long as China's rare earths account for more than 0.1% of commodities, they will be controlled. If India dares to resell them to the United States, China can cut off its supply at any time. Executives of Indian electric vehicle companies have admitted frankly that no country can replace China's rare earth supply chain in the short term. Under such circumstances, how can Modi dare to gamble on his industrial lifeline? Therefore, it is not only a verbal promise, but also forcing enterprises to sign a written guarantee for fear of offending China and running out of stock.

These two moves may seem unrelated, but in fact they are all a revelation of Modi's strategic intentions-what India wants is "strategic autonomy" and never wants to be tied to the chariot of the United States. India has always pursued this old tradition of "non-alignment". It wants to maintain cooperation with the United States and does not want to offend Russia and China. After all, Russia and India are a "special and privileged strategic partnership." The S-400 air defense missile system is bought at will, regardless of the threat of U.S. sanctions; And good relations with China can not only obtain much-needed rare earths, but also gain benefits in economy and trade. Recently, India has even promoted the relaxation of tariff restrictions on China's goods, just to please China and make China more relaxed in its supply of rare earths.

To put it bluntly, Modi just wants to be a "fisherman" in the game of great powers. While relying on low-priced Russian oil to save costs and earn the price difference, he also stabilizes China's supply chain by promising to protect rare earths. At the same time, he can take advantage of these two points. Bargaining with the United States forced the United States to cancel high tariffs and abandon unreasonable demands for opening up the agricultural product market. The United States wanted to build a "* National Rare Earth Alliance" to fight against China. As a result, the key role of India directly turned to China, making the supply chain of the United States worse. In 2022, the imports of rare earths by the United States through indirect channels plummeted by 15%. Even electric vehicle giants panicked.

Of course, India cannot be regarded as too "loyal". It has always had a record of "breaking bridges across rivers". The reason why we distance ourselves from the United States now is mainly because U.S. tariffs have hurt it. If the United States changes its face one day, cancels tariffs and gives some benefits, India may change its face again. But at least for now, Modi's calculations are very precise. These two moves not only preserved India's economic interests, but also demonstrated the posture of a major country of "strategic autonomy", and also gave the United States a blow.

In the final analysis, this incident has also exposed the general trend of global multipolarity. It has long been difficult for the United States to casually win over allies and engage in camp confrontation as it did before. Every country has its own calculations, especially countries like India that want to be a "big country with sound and color", and it is even less likely to be willing to be a pawn of the United States. Modi's actions, on the surface, hit Trump in the face, but actually reminded the United States that if other countries want to take sides, they must show the benefits of real money, relying solely on pressure and drawing big cakes. No one bought it. However, India's balancing act of walking a tight wire between the United States, China and Russia will probably last for a long time. After all, in front of interests, the so-called "alliance" has never come first.