The recent situation in the Caribbean is strange just on the surface: the US military had just announced in a high-profile manner that it would sink a "semi-submersible drug trafficking ship" when Venezuelan President Maduro privately handed over two peace talks plans. In this plan, Maduro was willing to resign or even go into exile, but Trump refused to accept it.
What's even more surprising is that Holsey, commander of the U.S. Southern Command, who is in charge of military operations in the region, suddenly announced his early retirement-this series of things comes together, and many people want to ask: Why does Maduro have to give in? Trump can get the benefits, so why don't he take it? What does the sudden departure of the commander of the US military have to do with this?
To understand this, we have to break the first key question: Maduro’s “concession” is not really “surrendering”, but the helplessness forced by reality.
Venezuela's situation is too special: it is in the "backyard" of the United States. The U.S. military has long deployed warships, F-35 fighter jets and thousands of soldiers in the Caribbean Sea, which is equivalent to putting a knife at the door. On the other hand, even if China and Russia wanted to help, support has to cross the ocean and have to pass through the Panama Canal, which can be controlled by the U.S. military, and there is no way to form military support in time.
What's worse is internally-years of U.S. sanctions have long dragged down Venezuela's economy. Even if Maduro wants to endure it hard, he must consider the people's food and livelihood issues. Therefore, the essence of his proposal for peace talks was to "delay it first if he couldn't defeat it." He was not really giving up, but wanted to hold on in another way.
It is not surprising to understand the situation of Maduro, and to see Trump's "rejection". the conditions Maduro has actually put very low: the first is to resign himself, let the vice president succeed, to the United States resources development "open the green light"; the second, more thoroughly, his own exile, let the former Foreign Secretary of the Interior, Mr. Torres, to the power - that is almost to give the archery of the regime to the United States.
But what Trump wants is not to "change the power of individuals", but to completely seize Venezuela's "gateway": here is the world's largest oil, a lot of gold, Trump wants to make the commission a "resource warehouse of American capital" - such as forcing the privatization of state-owned enterprises in Venezuela, allowing American companies to take the mining rights at low prices, monopolize oil exports, and Maduro's plan is just a "shit" and has not handed out the control of resources completely, this has not satisfied Trump's appetite.
At a time when the U.S. Commission was so tight, the U.S. military suddenly broke up with a big twist – Southern Command commander Holly announced his early retirement in December.This is not unusual: he took office last November, with a normal term of three years, and now suddenly leaves, according to sources, because he and the Defense Ministry broke up on the “Caribbean military operation.”
In fact, this is not the first time: Trump had previously forced generals who disagreed with him to leave because of "ideological inconsistency." Two commanders of the Air Force's Global Strike Command and Special Operations Command have resigned.
Holsey either actively opposed Trump's tough style of play (such as sinking ships at will, which may cause humanitarian disputes), or was dismissed by Trump-either way, it shows that the contradiction between the US military and the government has been put on the table.
More importantly, this contradiction directly stuck Trump's "hard-working plan." Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee have publicly warned that the sudden departure of the region's top military commander indicates that the chain of command is unstable and that it is illegal and dangerous to use force against Venezuela without congressional authorization.
Horsey had previously had concerns about the practice of "sinking the ship without finding out its background" and "causing death." Many legal experts also questioned that these actions violated the laws of war. If large-scale military intervention was really carried out, the US military might not be willing to cooperate. Even if Trump wanted to force it, no one would help him implement it.
String these clues together, and the current situation becomes clear: Maduro's "concessions" are a delaying tactic. On the surface, they are actually using the attention of the international community (such as calling on the United Nations to investigate the US military's actions) to stabilize the internal situation. Even if the US supports the proxy to come to power, the pro-US policy will be resisted by the public, which is equivalent to turning the "US military's frontal attack" into "the United States getting trapped in the internal quagmire of the CPC."
Trump's "hard" is stuck on his own people, wants to take more resources, but is stuck by military differences, and can not really do it.
In the end, the next situation is likely to be “exhausting”: the U.S. military continues to engage in military deterrence (such as shipping aircraft patrol), but will not easily launch an attack; Maduro rotates with the U.S., while using international aid to stabilize people’s livelihoods, avoiding internal collapse; the two sides are so stiff that one side can’t withstand — such as the US internal contradiction escalates, or Venezuela finds a new economic collapse point, then the situation will really change.