«--[· Preface ·]--»
Earlier, a paper judgment of the U.S. court gave the Trump administration a bowl of cold water on tariffs, ruling that it cited the International Emergency Economic Power Act to impose tariffs on multiple countries.
“The Court is cold.”
A ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade in May this year poured cold water on Trump's tariff stick. The court directly ruled that the Trump administration was suspected of exceeding its authority in invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on many countries.
The source of this judgment has long been foreshadowed. On April 14th, five small businesses in the United States jointly took the Trump administration to court. They complained that the tariff policy without the approval of Congress caused the cost of enterprises to soar, which was "illegal expansion of administrative power".
The Trump administration is unwilling to admit defeat. They immediately appealed to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals. However, the verdict of August 29 made them feel even colder, and the Court of Appeal upheld the original ruling with a vote of 7:4.
The shadow of losing a lawsuit is getting longer and longer. The Trump team could only grit its teeth and continue to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court decided to hold a hearing in early November, which made even Trump himself unable to sit still. He said publicly that he might personally go to the Supreme Court to listen to the debate. He bluntly said that this was "one of the most important cases in history" and that if he lost the case, he would be "defenseless."
“The darkness?”
In the clock of the hearing, the Trump administration quietly changed the way.The Wall Street Journal's October 17 report shattered the window paper, and they are low-risking the tariff policy.
Last month, Trump threw out a list of “Appendix II.” gold, LEDs and so on, and a lot of minerals, chemicals and metal products dropped the tariff burden. These dozens of goods became the first “lucky kids.”
What is even more intriguing is the "Annex III" list. Trump made it clear in the executive order that the above goods can directly enjoy zero tariffs as long as they reach a trade agreement with the United States. The list is all aimed at "products that cannot be grown, mined or produced in the United States", including certain agricultural products, aircraft parts and generic items for pharmaceutical use.
The executive order gave the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Office of the Trade Representative privileges to be able to approve tariff exemptions on their own in the future without waiting for Trump to sign a new executive order.
«-[The abacus beats loudly]-»
The source told the Wall Street Journal earlier that this wave of operations was a “hypocrisy strategy” to deal with legal risks.
Kennedy, an analyst at the Bloomberg Economic Research Institute, did a calculation. Losing the case would cut the U.S. average tariff rate of 16.3% by at least half. The Trump administration still has to refund tens of billions of dollars in tariffs already imposed, and preliminary trade agreements previously negotiated with many countries may fall through.
The wind has changed within the government. According to sources familiar with the planning, a consensus is taking shape: the tariff threshold should be lowered for goods that cannot be made in the United States. Everett Eisenstadt, who once served in the Trump administration, can see clearly that this consensus is slowly accumulated.
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnik's attitude shifted most face-to-face. before he also declared "reciprocal tariffs zero exemptions", and at the end of July directly spoke of "the U.S. can not produce zero tariffs forward".
The pressure of domestic enterprises is pushing the policy forward. The American Consumer Brands Association has long sent a letter asking for exemption from tariffs on tropical crops such as coffee and cocoa. Now most of these commodities have entered the alternative pool of "Annex III", just waiting for the trade agreement to land.
«--[·Unconcealed policy fatigue·]--»
Trump has no intention of completely abandoning the tariff tool. He turned his attention to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This clause is taxed on the grounds of national security and has a much stronger legal basis than previous emergency bills.
On October 17, the new policy came. Trump announced a 25% tariff increase on trucks and parts and a 10% tariff increase on buses starting in November. But in turn, automakers 'exemption plans have been expanded, and the application period for credit quotas has been extended from 2027 to 2030. While increasing taxes and refunding money, the contradiction is full of helplessness.
Nick Jacovella of the Prosperity United States Alliance said that the 232th clause would boost the re-flow of manufacturing, but the September report of Flagship Bank broke the truth early on. The U.S. theoretical tariff rate looked at 18 percent, and actually only 9 percent to 10 percent. The main reason was the exemptions and exceptions.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
The pull on trade with China is even more timid. Trump previously threatened China with tariffs, but recently admitted that high tariffs on China were "unsustainable". He frequently released the news that he would meet with the Chinese side at the end of the month, clearly trying to take the court steps to leave with dignity.
The hearing in early November is getting closer. Even if Trump does attend the Supreme Court, it will not change the fact that the policy is loose. In the final analysis, this drama of "decent retreat" is still a helpless move after the tariff card cannot be played.