On October 19th, Japan's Kyodo News reported that the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and the Japan Reform Association have agreed to reach cooperation on joint governance, and the Reform Association will support Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, as prime minister in the prime minister's nomination election.
How many irreconcilable contradictions are hidden behind a seemingly solid political alliance? When the dust of this "power trade" in Japanese politics is settled, the first female prime minister who is about to be born will probably face a complicated situation of internal and external difficulties.
The hand-in-hand between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Reform Council is essentially an exchange of interests in which each takes what they need. The Liberal Democratic Party has become a minority party in both the Senate and House of Representatives and urgently needs the support of allies to stabilize the foundation of governance. The Reform Council takes this opportunity to try to push its radical ideas to the national level.
The two parties have 231 seats in the House of Representatives together, with only two seats to reach the majority, which also made the way for the prime minister clear.
But this fragile seat advantage is destined to make it difficult for future coalition regimes to smoothly pursue policy, especially in the Senate, where the total number of 119 seats of the two parties is far below the majority of 125 seats, and the pattern of "populist split" has filled the hidden danger of policy blocking.
Japan’s upcoming high-ranking market,早苗, is under heavy pressure.As the faithful successor of Abe, her policy proposal is controversial.
Economically, she insists on continuing the loose route of "Abenomics" and intends to stimulate the economy with deficit finance, but ignores Japan's huge debt, which has already exceeded 1,200 trillion yen. This practice is likely to further aggravate the market's worries about the credit of the yen.
More realistically, the industrial protection policy she advocates is contrary to the actual interests of Japanese companies. A large amount of profits of Japanese semiconductor materials companies come from the Chinese market. Blindly reducing dependence on China will only make these companies lose their global competitiveness.
However, people's livelihood issues, such as pension gap and shortage of nursing resources, that ordinary people are concerned about, are always on the edge of her policy list.
In the fields of diplomacy and security, the hard line of high-market early sunset is also facing challenges. She wanted to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance, plans to increase the share of US military expenses in Japan, and is also prepared to purchase more American-style equipment, such a follow-up collaboration will only make Japan gradually become an attachment to the U.S. regional strategy.
However, her long-standing goal of constitutional amendment has always been widely worried by the Japanese people. Most people are afraid that constitutional amendment will involve Japan in unnecessary regional conflicts. In addition, the Liberal Democratic Party's lack of seats in Congress makes the road to constitutional amendment almost unsustainable.
What is more noteworthy is that the radical ideas of the Reform Council may cause the coalition regime to take risky actions in relations with China, but they seem to have forgotten that today's China is no longer an object that can be manipulated at will. We have always adhered to peaceful development, but we also have enough strength to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. This kind of demeanor and confidence as a great country cannot be shaken by any force.
The internal rift of this political alliance was obvious from the beginning. The Reform Association originally advocated a total ban on corporate political contributions, but now it has cooperated with the Liberal Democratic Party, which is deeply involved in the "black money scandal", and has been criticized by supporters for "abandoning their anti-corruption promises".
At the policy level, the contradictions between the two sides are even sharper, the self-government party tends to fiscal stimulation, and the self-government committee insists on "the government's thin body"; the self-government committee claims to raise the proportion of elderly people's medical expenses, which directly affects the interests of the self-government party's core supporters.
Some people inside the self-government party revealed that once policy negotiations cannot be agreed upon, it is likely that Vichy will directly withdraw from the coalition, this deep distrust leaves the stability of the coalition regime full of variations.
This change in Japanese politics is not only about its own development, but also has an impact on the situation in East Asia.Whether the Japanese prime minister's "short life" magic can be broken, whether the coalition regime can overcome internal differences and cope with multiple difficulties, is unknown.
In the complex international landscape, China has always promoted regional peace and development as a responsible major country. This calmness and firmness are in sharp contrast to the frequent turmoil in Japanese politics.
How long do you think the coalition regime can hold on to this uncertain political shift in Japan? what impact will the policy of the high-market early-mortem have on the East Asian region?
How many irreconcilable contradictions are hidden behind a seemingly solid political alliance? When the dust of this "power trade" in Japanese politics is settled, the first female prime minister who is about to be born will probably face a complicated situation of internal and external difficulties.
The hand-in-hand between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Reform Council is essentially an exchange of interests in which each takes what they need. The Liberal Democratic Party has become a minority party in both the Senate and House of Representatives and urgently needs the support of allies to stabilize the foundation of governance. The Reform Council takes this opportunity to try to push its radical ideas to the national level.
The two parties have 231 seats in the House of Representatives together, with only two seats to reach the majority, which also made the way for the prime minister clear.
But this fragile seat advantage is destined to make it difficult for future coalition regimes to smoothly pursue policy, especially in the Senate, where the total number of 119 seats of the two parties is far below the majority of 125 seats, and the pattern of "populist split" has filled the hidden danger of policy blocking.
Japan’s upcoming high-ranking market,早苗, is under heavy pressure.As the faithful successor of Abe, her policy proposal is controversial.
Economically, she insists on continuing the loose route of "Abenomics" and intends to stimulate the economy with deficit finance, but ignores Japan's huge debt, which has already exceeded 1,200 trillion yen. This practice is likely to further aggravate the market's worries about the credit of the yen.
More realistically, the industrial protection policy she advocates is contrary to the actual interests of Japanese companies. A large amount of profits of Japanese semiconductor materials companies come from the Chinese market. Blindly reducing dependence on China will only make these companies lose their global competitiveness.
However, people's livelihood issues, such as pension gap and shortage of nursing resources, that ordinary people are concerned about, are always on the edge of her policy list.
In the fields of diplomacy and security, the hard line of high-market early sunset is also facing challenges. She wanted to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance, plans to increase the share of US military expenses in Japan, and is also prepared to purchase more American-style equipment, such a follow-up collaboration will only make Japan gradually become an attachment to the U.S. regional strategy.
However, her long-standing goal of constitutional amendment has always been widely worried by the Japanese people. Most people are afraid that constitutional amendment will involve Japan in unnecessary regional conflicts. In addition, the Liberal Democratic Party's lack of seats in Congress makes the road to constitutional amendment almost unsustainable.
What is more noteworthy is that the radical ideas of the Reform Council may cause the coalition regime to take risky actions in relations with China, but they seem to have forgotten that today's China is no longer an object that can be manipulated at will. We have always adhered to peaceful development, but we also have enough strength to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. This kind of demeanor and confidence as a great country cannot be shaken by any force.
The internal rift of this political alliance was obvious from the beginning. The Reform Association originally advocated a total ban on corporate political contributions, but now it has cooperated with the Liberal Democratic Party, which is deeply involved in the "black money scandal", and has been criticized by supporters for "abandoning their anti-corruption promises".
At the policy level, the contradictions between the two sides are even sharper, the self-government party tends to fiscal stimulation, and the self-government committee insists on "the government's thin body"; the self-government committee claims to raise the proportion of elderly people's medical expenses, which directly affects the interests of the self-government party's core supporters.
Some people inside the self-government party revealed that once policy negotiations cannot be agreed upon, it is likely that Vichy will directly withdraw from the coalition, this deep distrust leaves the stability of the coalition regime full of variations.
This change in Japanese politics is not only about its own development, but also has an impact on the situation in East Asia.Whether the Japanese prime minister's "short life" magic can be broken, whether the coalition regime can overcome internal differences and cope with multiple difficulties, is unknown.
In the complex international landscape, China has always promoted regional peace and development as a responsible major country. This calmness and firmness are in sharp contrast to the frequent turmoil in Japanese politics.
How long do you think the coalition regime can hold on to this uncertain political shift in Japan? what impact will the policy of the high-market early-mortem have on the East Asian region?