In mid-October, Pakistani fighter jets and drones launched a row of relentless air strikes on armed targets on the Afghan border, with more than 70 militants being “connected,” including a Pakistani Taliban leader.
The original 48-hour ceasefire agreement had not cooled down, and both sides quickly returned to the battlefield.
More interestingly, the Afghan Taliban (also referred to as the “Ata”), who had previously bite “will strike back,” soon quietly changed faces and initially sent people to Doha for negotiations.
Behind this sudden change is not only the deterrence of artillery fire, but also the wisdom of neighboring countries.Atta in the Chinese side, in fact, saw another way of "dealing with trouble."
An air strike broke the illusion of a ceasefire, and the Pakistani side was accurate.
On October 15, the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire, apparently to leave room for dialogue.
But just a day later, a Pakistani military vehicle was bombed in northern Waziristan, wounding soldiers and a ceasefire.
On the 17th, the agreement ended in less than a few hours, the Pakistani army launched fighter jets and drones, directly locked the hiding point of the "Bata" branch, launched a massive airstrike.
This is not a simple revenge, but a carefully planned anti-terrorism "counterattack" by Pakistan.
According to local information, During the ceasefire, "Bata" not only collapsed, but instead intensified, and continued to launch attacks on Pakistan's border areas from within Afghanistan.
In 2024, the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has doubled, more than doubled, and government tolerance has come to an end.
More importantly, the air strike reflects the Pakistani side’s familiarity with the terrain, the distribution of armed organizations and the intelligence chain.
The U.S. military has been fighting terrorism in Afghanistan for the past two decades, doing it hard and inefficiently, sometimes bombing targets, and it is not clear who was bombing.
In contrast to, Pakistan's action was crisp and precise, showing that only the "local snakes" know better how to clean up their own backyard.
Of course, Atta did not show weakness at the beginning, immediately spoke to the outside, accusing the Pakistani side of "violating the ceasefire", and promised "will strike again".
Atta's "hard-to-face" ran into Pakistan's "hard and soft"
The Afghan Taliban and “Bata” although the names are similar to relatives, are actually two things: one is the governing force in Afghanistan, and one is the “terrorist organization” in the eyes of Pakistan.
Both of them do have historical origins, especially on the issue of the "Duran Line", a boundary line left over from history. Their attitudes are basically the same, and they both feel that the division of this border is unreasonable.
But at the real level, the ATA to eat, to govern the country, it is impossible to keep the bottom of the "BATA".
In the past, Atta could "fight guerrilla warfare" against the US military and NATO, but in the face of Pakistan, the situation is completely different.
Pakistan is not only familiar with language, topography and ethnic structure, but its intelligence network has been rooted for many years. What's worse is that Atta In dealing with it, it is no longer the kind of western "shoot a shot for a place", but at the doorstep of your home, a mountain can touch your neighbor.
Pakistan has been under great pressure on counter-terrorism in recent years, not only for its own security, but also to protect the lifeblood of investment.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a national key project, once terrorists infiltrate along the sidelines, not only the infrastructure is destroyed, but also the foundations of China-Pakistan relations are affected.
Atta certainly understood this. Continue to shelter "Bata", On the surface, it isining border control, but in reality it is betting on the legitimacy of its own rule.
The international community's recognition of Atta is already fragile, and if it is labeled as the "umbrella of terrorist organizations", the future development channel will almost be completely blocked.
The Doha negotiations are not a conspiracy, it is a reality without logic.
The real turning point came in Doha. Foreign Minister Ata personally travelled to Qatar to hold closed-door talks with Pakistani representatives. This was not a coincidence, nor was it entirely pressured, but rather a choice after a “real education.”
Atta had previously referred to the Chinese side to express concerns, but China's response was remarkable, neither directly interfering nor rushing to speak, but emphasizing "regional stability" and "dialogue settlement".
In fact, this is a kind of "silent game": quiet, but full of weight.
China is in no hurry to act as a "peacemaker," but once the situation develops in an uncontrollable direction, China's investment security in Central and South Asia will also encounter risks.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan has been extended to the Afghan border, and it is hoped to push forward in the direction of Afghanistan in the future. If the situation is unstable, all efforts may fall short.
Atta's shift is obviously also inspired by China's "warm-fire-slow" diplomatic style.The Chinese side has never put pressure high, but through multilateral mechanisms continuously releasing signals: stability overwhelms everything, development is the way out.
At the 2023 meeting of the Foreign Ministers of China and China, the Chinese side put forward a "common, comprehensive and sustainable security vision", which means to urge everyone to stop using terrorism as a tool.
For Atta, the conclusion of the Rakhine Doha negotiations does not mean a complete concession, but rather an attempt to jump out of the “hard clash” and find a compromise line that preserves faces and interests.
It not only avoids a direct confrontation with Pakistan, but also frees up space for subsequent diplomatic communication with China, Qatar and other countries.
“Imperial Cemetery” is also difficult to host neighbors’ “psychological war”
Afghanistan has always been referred to as the “Tomb of the Empire,” where the Soviet Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom have been sinking sand.
But this time, things are a little different. Atta was not overwhelmed by military powers from afar, but forced to the negotiating table by this "acquaintance" beside him with a set of "you come and go" operations.
When Atta discovered that air strikes were not empty threats and negotiations were not unilateral compromises, they began to reassess their strategies. The price of 70 people being killed was not only a shock on the battlefield, but also a psychological gap.
The Chinese side in this process did not high-tone, but played the role of the stabilizer behind. Not interfering, but not lacking; not dominating, but always present. This "silent lubricant" method may be more effective than high-tone intervention.
Whether the future relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan can be completely turned over depends on whether Atta can truly get rid of the old idea of "terrorism as a bargaining chip."
If they can learn something from this conflict, that is: The understanding of neighbors should not be limited to border disputes, but rather to the possibility of win-win interests.
And for China, Abba reconciliation is not a goal, but a path. The path is clear, “One Belt and One Road” can go further and more steadily.
conclusion
From war to negotiation, Atta's face change is not slow, but the signal behind it is more worthy of attention: the old methods of neighboring countries may not work; But the "new routines" of neighboring countries can really work.
This time, what Atta realized was not "who has the bigger fist", but "who understands you better."
The cost of 70 people falling, in exchange for an opportunity to sit down and talk.
China's calmness and low-key just reminds people in the game that the smart way is not to pose for confrontation, but to quietly let the other party realize that cooperation is the only way to survive.