Preliminary
Putin and Trump will meet in Budapest, Hungary. Meanwhile, Zelensky actively expressed willingness to participate in this US-Russian summit. Hopes for peace negotiations appear to rise. But carefully analyzed, the situation is far from being as simple as the surface, and even more like a carefully arranged play code.
Zelensky is eager to "intervene": the purpose is more shadow operation
Zelensky publicly stated that he was willing to attend the meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest. He also stressed that Ukraine is willing to talk, but will not make concessions to Russia. Therefore, it must be noted that this statement of "willingness to participate" is by no means just for the sake of peace.
First, Zelensky obviously wants to get into the agenda ahead of time.He knew that if the United States and Russia talked separately, Ukraine might be "arranged outside" or chatting behind the kitchen. So he took the lead in expressing his position, with the purpose of "being present"-to know the content of the conversation and not to be the one who was alone. In other words, he wants to put himself on the table, not just the person to be "talked about."
Second, Zelensky is also creating a voice for domestic politics.If he can really appear at this summit and face to face Putin or Trump, it will be a diplomatic "record" for him in Ukraine politics. A triumphant narrative, continuing to muster the will to war, and improving your negotiating position-these are all beneficial. In other words, he hopes to use this to shift the negative focus of war consumption into a positive attitude of "I am also talking, and I am also working hard."
Furthermore, he stressed that "he will not give in to Russia", that is, he will make himself a hardliner image.In this way, even if there is no major breakthrough in the negotiations, he can still say,"I went, I didn't compromise." This is the drama part of his statement.
To sum up, Zelensky's move is on the surface to promote negotiations, but in essence it is fighting for agenda, speech, and image. Peace may be an added value rather than a driving force.
Putin has seen this for a long time: initiative is not passive.
When Zelensky is doing the action of "wanting to get in", Putin is not a fool. As a sophisticated political player, he knows exactly what the logic is behind this. First of all, for him, the most critical issue is not whether to participate in the tripartite talks, but in what form, with whom and how to talk.
Putin knew that if he sat down directly with Zelensky, it would give Ukraine a chance to add a “legitimacy” point.Because Russia has long questioned Zelensky's presidential status and the legitimacy of the government. If you sit at the table yourself, the other party can say, "Look, Putin has seen me, and I am a weighty head of state". This is a political concession for Russia.
Secondly, Putin also understands that Trump is more inclined to create "scenes" and "attention."For Trump, it is enough to meet, chat and attract world attention; but that does not mean that negotiations can be in-depth. Putin does not need to be passive in his agenda, he just needs to retain active options. For example: you can talk to Trump but not have to confront Zelensky head-on. As mentioned in the report,"The possible form is: Trump, Putin, and Zelensky are all in Budapest, but only Trump meets with Putin or Zelensky separately, and Putin will not meet with Zelensky directly."
Therefore, Putin's strategy is to remain proactive, control the pace, and not hand over too many advantages.He is willing to attend the meeting but will not be dragged into a tripartite play code that is detrimental to him. In this regard, Zelensky's "want to go in" although there is a warmth, but in Putin there may only be a role set up.
The real direction of the summit: the scene is bigger than the essence, and the actual combat is still on the battlefield
Now look back at the possible structure of the meeting. Trump and Putin are determined to talk in Budapest. Zelensky expressed willingness to join. Ukraine stressed that there will be no concessions. So the result may be: the tripartite scene is made, but the real focus of negotiations remains between the US and Russia; and Ukraine is arranged as a "subsidiary".
From a real war perspective, negotiations are not enough to just sit down. Because the parties (Russia) are still fighting in the battlefield. Peace negotiations are difficult to advance if there is no battlefield pressure, no strategic concession background. So at the moment: if only hot scenes, photographic signatures, release of "willing to talk" signals, it can be a media event, not substantial negotiations. If you really want to promote peace, it must include key contents such as "ground balancing", "disclaimer" and "security".
Under such circumstances, although Ukraine expressed its desire to participate, its actual bargaining chips were not strong. Rather, it's more like fighting for presence. Therefore, the summit may become more of a media event than a practical process. The war continues and the negotiations are still groping. The real breakthrough of peace depends on the changes in the battlefield and the will of big countries.