In the Kremlin meeting room, Russian President Putin stretched out his hand and shortened his hand to the hand of Syrian interim President Ahmed Shala.
Putin shook hands with Sala
In front of the dressed "sitter", the rebel leader "Julani", who was bombed by Russian warplanes last year, and Putin stands up for a decade of former ally Assad, is now addicted to video games in Moscow's luxury villa, becoming a political refugee in need of Russian asylum.
This meeting, which was ten months late, was full of embarrassment that could not be concealed from beginning to end. Even if Putin wanted to squeeze out a sincere smile, he would only have a "fake smile" rigidity. And this expression lasted almost throughout the conversation.
No one will forget that the two sides were once bitter enemies. During the Syrian civil war, Russia made every effort for the Assad regime, and Russian warplanes bombed the armed forces led by Sarah again and again; Until last year, the armed forces led by Shala captured Damascus in just 12 days, ending the 54-year rule of the Assad family, and entered the Kremlin as the head of state. This is not only a complete reversal of Syria's power structure, but also a slap in the face in the face of Russia's Middle East strategy.
Putin and Saleh
Salla obviously did not put this embarrassment on his mind. He was wearing a headset and smiling, because he did not come here to “Higgong for the shark”, but to do a deal.
On the eve of the meeting, Julian, in an interview with CBS, issued a signal to China-Russia in advance, saying that “Syria is establishing a stable relationship with Russia and China based on strategic interests”; after sitting in Kerch Palace, he first threw “good intentions”: “We respect all the agreements signed by Syria-Russia in the past, and from this period of history, in a new way will recognize the essence of the bilateral relations.”
This is clearly indicated, the reality is in the setting of the rules, before the Sala regime had canceled the Russian management agreement on the Tartus base, handed the port to the Dubai Company operations, now the Russian military not only withdrew several warships, air defense radar, other military equipment and personnel have been successively evacuated, now Russian military vehicles enter the base, must be prepared in advance.
Salad's trump card is clear: Tartus Naval Base is Russia's only freeze-free port in the Mediterranean, and Hmeimim Air Base is a strategic springboard for the Russian army to radiate to Africa and the Middle East. These two strongholds are Russia's last "voice ticket" in the Middle East. With them, Russia can still deal with Israel and Turkey; Without them, even the capital to establish a foothold in the Middle East will be gone.
Holding this card, he revealed his true appeal as soon as the conversation turned: "Syria's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity are inviolable", and in exchange for "respecting the agreement", he hoped that Russia would provide oil, food and technical support for infrastructure repair below the market price, and even asked Putin to nod and extradite Assad. And this request is tantamount to putting Putin on the fire.
Capital of Syria
Extradite Assad? It is equivalent to openly betraying allies, which will not only destroy Russia's brand of "reliable partner," but will also make the families of Russian soldiers who fought bloody battles in the Syria battlefield and sacrificed their lives in support of Assad.
Julian had a reason to tighten control of the base, and in the future could even “preserve sovereignty” on the basis of completely expelling Russian troops from Syria.
Putin's response revealed "diplomatic Tai Chi". He avoided sovereignty disputes, only emphasizing that "the two countries have established a special relationship, and the friendship between Russia and Syria has lasted for decades", and promised to implement "beneficial projects" in the talks.
Julani's abacus goes far beyond "handling Russia". He knows very well that Syria is located in the heart of the Middle East, sandwiched between the three major forces of Russia, Turkey and Israel. If it completely falls to either side, it will attract the encirclement and suppression of the other two sides. Therefore, he laid out the "multilateral balance" situation early: one month before his visit to Russia, he called for the lifting of international sanctions at the UN General Assembly; Recently, he has frequently visited Europe and the United States to ease relations with the West.
Both Russia and Syria gave this meeting the symbolic meaning of "restarting relations", but it was essentially a game of interests without warmth. What Julani wants is time, using Russia's endorsement to win the recognition of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, and to secure the throne of Damascus on the ruins; Putin wants "decency" to keep two military bases and maintain Russia's last trace of influence in the Middle East.
But even if Putin retains his current base, he cannot stop the decline of Russia's influence in the Middle East. Former enemies became guests and former allies became political refugees. This calculated meeting ultimately left only a place of embarrassment. Putin couldn't laugh, perhaps not only because of the current dilemma, but also because he had seen clearly the truth about the shattered dream of the empire.