As soon as Trump said "soft words", the situation suddenly became more tense-the United States has quietly gathered two aircraft carriers in the waters near China.
Coincidence or deliberate double signals? diplomatic moderation and military action appear at the same time, and one can undoubtedly question: Is this a test, deterrence, or is it another plan?
How will the situation develop next?
In mid-October, the Dow Jones index fell more than 800 points in a single day, and the Nasdaq was even worse.
Investors have completely lost confidence in the Trump administration's trade policies, with large amounts of funds flowing out and market panic spreading.
Trump couldn't sit still now. You know, stock market performance has always been one of his proudest achievements.
Seeing his "political capital" evaporate in the stock market, he had to reconsider his China policy.
On October 17, Trump made a rare admission on camera to the unrealism of his previous threat to impose a 100% tariff.
He said: "We will be in a good relationship with China, but we must reach a fair deal."
That sounds more gentle, compared to the twisted president a few days ago.
Trump’s speech just falls, and Finance Secretary Bessent begins his “balancing” performance.
On October 17, Besent issued a statement at a meeting of the International Monetary Fund Committee, calling on the international community to take a stronger stance on China's economic model.
This is evident to the domestic Hawk forces, indicating that the government has not been completely “softened.”
Besant played this trick quite wisely.
On the one hand, it appeased those voters and members of Congress who supported the tough policy towards China; on the other hand, it also left room for subsequent dialogue.
After all, speaking out on international occasions and directly threatening to impose tariffs are two different things. The former is much less lethal.
On October 17th, the American media disclosed an important news: The Pentagon transferred an aircraft carrier to the waters surrounding China.
This way, The number of U.S. aircraft carriers near China has reached two.
The timing of this military action is thought-provoking.
Just as Trump showed good on trade issues, the military was increasing military pressure.
This "one hand soft, one hand hard" strategy is apparently carefully designed to maintain deterrence while showing friendly gestures.
Military analysts believe that the deployment of such aircraft carriers is more of a political symbolic meaning, and the actual operational value is limited.
It is doubtful how important the two aircraft carriers can play in the vast Western Pacific.
It is more like a show for the domestic people to show that the government is not "confident" on the issue of China.
While the U.S. government is busy adjusting its China policy, Australia, a traditional ally, has given Washington a sap.
On October 17, several Australia media reported a piece of news that upset the U.S. government: During a visit to Washington, Australian Treasury Minister Chamos made it clear that Australia opposes "de-linking" with China.
Chamos's statement can be said to have given the US government a loud slap in the face.
to know, Australia has always been regarded by the United States as an important pawn against China in the Asia-Pacific region.
Especially in the reorganization of supply chains for key resources such as rare earths, the United States has always counted on Australia to stand on its side.
Chamonix is straightforward. : "We don't think it is in Australia's interest to completely decouple from China."
The meaning behind this is clear: Australia is unwilling to sacrifice its economic interests for America’s strategic goals.
After all, China is Australia's largest trading partner, and the economic ties between the two sides are too close to completely cut off the relationship for Australia.。
This incident sounded a wake-up call for the U.S. government.
Even our closest allies are beginning to question America’s policy toward China.The “anti-Chinese coalition” that the U.S. is trying to build does not seem to be as strong as imagined.
At a time when the outside world was generally pessimistic about the outlook for China-US relations, a good news came on the morning of October 18: The trade leaders of the two countries held a video call.
The Chinese side is led by Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng, while the US side is attended by Finance Minister Bessant and Trade Representative Greer.
A message released after the call stated that The two sides had an "in-depth, frank and constructive" dialogue,They also agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade talks as soon as possible.
Although this statement is very official, the signal it sends is positive.
Looking at the time, The two sides are likely to exchange views on recent trade frictions and future cooperation prospects.
The US may have expressed its intention to adjust the policy, while China may have expressed its concerns and demands.
The downturn made Trump realize, Excessive trade threats have begun to hurt America’s own interests.
Investors voted with their feet, clearly expressing concerns about the escalation of the trade war.
The "betrayal" of allies made the U.S. government see the limitations of its own strategy.
It is not easy to isolate China, especially in today's economic globalization.
The importance of the China market cannot be ignored.
Although the U.S. government has been pushing for "decoupling," the reality is that the economic ties between the two countries remain close.
Completely disconnecting is a huge loss for both sides, and American and consumers will pay for it.
Although this policy adjustment has released positive signals, it remains questionable whether it will continue.
Trump’s policies are constantly changing, and today’s friendly statements cannot guarantee that tomorrow won’t change again.
Source of information:
Fox News: Trump interviewed on October 17, acknowledging the unsustainable official statements against China's high tariff policy
·International Monetary Fund: Official record of U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent's tough stance on China to the IMF Committee
Pentagon: U.S. Department of Defense Official Notification on Military Operations of Aircraft Carriers Deployed in China's surrounding waters
· Australian media: Australian Treasurer Chalmers's public statement against decoupling from China during his visit to the United States
China Foreign Ministry: official press release of video call of China-US economic and trade leaders and agreement to hold new round of consultations
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative: Official statement and follow-up consultation arrangements on Greer's participation in the China-US economic and trade call
·Wall Street Stock Market Data: Official trading data and market performance statistics on the U.S. stock market collapse in mid-October