Preliminary
Japanese political prime minister elections, even more wonderful than a short drama! high-market early-size hand holds the president's power, the prime minister's throne is close to the foot and far in the sky.
Even more surprisingly, the one who blocked her prime minister's path was the stone broken!
Japan's political arena has no choice but to reach a deadlock. Who will take over the "hot potato" of the Prime Minister?
A sudden arithmetic lesson
The root of all this chaos has to begin with a seemingly simple but wave-breaking “matematical issue” in the political sphere.
On the political chessboard, every decision and change in power are like the movement of a chess piece, which may trigger a chain reaction. The trigger of this incident was the announcement by the Komeito Party that it would withdraw from the ruling coalition on October 10. Heavy news.
Before the Communist Party made this decision, the self-proclaimed prime minister's candidate passed it in Congress, which was almost on the board.
For a long time, the Liberal Democratic Party has occupied an important position in the Japanese political arena, with a deep political foundation and extensive support network.
Its superiority in parliamentary seats has allowed party-level prime minister candidates to pass congressional scrutiny more smoothly.
Judging from past political experience, the Liberal Democratic Party plays a leading role in many political affairs by virtue of its own influence and organizational ability.
However, the sudden "change of mind" by an ally of the Komeito Party broke the original political balance.
The 24 seats of the House of Representatives taken by the Communist Party, which seemed to be a simple number, seemed like a key piece of the bottom of the wooden tower, instantly shaking the whole political pattern.
The Self-Democratic Party originally held a certain number of seats in the House of Representatives and was in the favorable position of the majority party.
But after the withdrawal of the Communist Party, the Democratic Party itself had only 196 seats, this huge gap, which instantly turned the Democratic Party from a majority party that could dominate parliament alone to a "big party" that could not dominate parliament alone.
From the perspective of political power, the majority party means that it has greater voice and decision-making power in parliament, and can promote its own policies and agendas more smoothly. Without this advantage, the Liberal Democratic Party will face many challenges in the future political game.
This was the turn of the opposition, and the three major forces, the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Conservative Party and the National Democratic Party, sharply perceived the change in the political situation.
They quickly gathered together to make the most detailed summary, and after careful calculation of the number of seats in the parliament, they were surprised to find that the three major powers combined had 210 seats.
This figure has historically surpassed the Liberal Democratic Party in quantity, which is undoubtedly a golden opportunity for the opposition party.
For a long time, the opposition party has been under the political shadow of the Liberal Democratic Party and has difficulty in fully exerting its influence on the political stage.
The reversal of the number of seats made them see the hope of breaking the status quo and achieving political breakthroughs.
The original presidential election by name, which was a formality, instantly turned into a suspenseful "no solution".
In previous elections, due to the absolute advantage of the Liberal Democratic Party, the election of the prime minister by name was often just a formality, and the results were already expected.
Nowadays, no one has an absolute advantage.
Although the self-government party is still a "big party", it has lost the status of the majority party; although the number of seats in the parliament in the opposition party exceeds the self-government party, there are also different political ideas and interest claims between the three major forces, which makes it difficult to form a unified powerful force.
As a result, the interim parliament, which was originally scheduled to elect a new prime minister, had to be postponed. This decision was also a helpless move, because in the current chaotic situation, all parties need time to readjust their strategies and coordinate their positions.
Postponing it until late October gives all parties a buffer time.
The Democratic Party needs to think about how to regain its support and restore its superiority; in the opposition, it needs to further integrate its forces and clarify its political goals.
One wants to walk and the other wants to get up and can't get up
This structural impasse, projected on specific political figures, has created a ridiculous career paradox, and the two most representative “victims” of this power vacuum have become Shapiro Momo and Gao Jima.
Shigeru Ishiba, born in 1957, should have turned around gracefully. He resigned just to put an end to the defeat of the Senate election in July. Unexpectedly, the Liberal Democratic Party's "full version" presidential election process, which included party members' voting, itself took 12 days.
What's even worse is that the process is over, but the alliance is broken up.
Now Shigeru Ishiba couldn't leave at all. He became a veritable "caretaker prime minister" and was "forced to work overtime" for longer and longer.
In embarrassment, his number of days in office gradually surpassed Taro Aso and Yasuo Fukuda.
By late October, he will overtake Yoshihide Suga in a 385-day term and rank 24th on the list of post-war Japanese prime ministers. This is simply an "achievement" like black humor.
On the other hand, the "victory is defeat" of High City Mornington, the conservative politician from Nara County, who had held a key role in Abe's cabinet, this was her second challenge to the party's chief throne and finally won, which was supposed to be the most bright moment in her life.
However, the coalition broke up just days after she was elected, leaving her new president’s powers instantly empty.
She was forced to publicly apologize for the hardships faced by her yet-officially-begun ruling career, and even mocked herself as a “poor woman.”
Doubts from the outside world have also followed: How will a president who cannot even maintain his ruling allies handle complex and ever-changing diplomatic relations in the future?
The hot potato that everyone fights for
The Komeito Party's "solo flight" completely announced the end of an era. Japanese politics was described by the media as entering an era of multi-party or fragmentation, and the throne of the prime minister was no longer in the pocket of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party.
It turned into a "hot potato" with fierce competition from all sides.
The opposition parties united unprecedentedly, held talks on October 15th, and planned to recommend a unified candidate like Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the National Democratic Party. For the first time, they so truly revealed their ambition to seize power.
The Komeito Party, the former ruling partner, has become a "key intermediate force" that all parties must strive for, and its attitude will determine the future direction of the game.
However, don't think that this will stabilize it. The opposition coalition is not monolithic. They have serious differences on core policies such as security and energy.
This predicts that even if the new prime minister is hardly elected, he will face a factionalized, hard-to-integrate congress.
Whoever comes to power will inherit a mess: a weak economic recovery, an aggravated aging problem, foreign policy turmoil, and a fragile ruling base that could disintegrate at any time because of a disagreement.
After Abe's triumph, the "short life" curse of the Japanese prime minister's average term of less than two years seems to continue.
conclusion
This drama in Japanese politics is rooted in the fact that the old power structure has collapsed and the new balance is far from being established.
The relentless remains of Sharpomo and the embarrassing situation of the high market, like the two sides of the mirror, together illuminate a cruel reality: in a fragmented political ecology, no one is the real winner.
The struggle for power has become extremely complicated, and the person who eventually sits in that position only takes over a position full of constraints and difficulties. Japan's multi-party era is kicking off at an extremely high political cost.