Everyone knows that the Russian conflict has been fighting now, for more than three years, and the situation is becoming more and more complicated. On the Ukrainian side, Commander-in-Chief Sergey said in several occasions that the Russian army is strong, although the losses are not small, but the troops recovered quickly, which sounds like admitting that the opponent was not well dealt with. British military analyst Alexander Muculis also jumped out, saying that Ukraine has actually lost, and the two people's views combined, make it feel that the battle situation may have really turned.
He was the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who took office in February 2024, was born early in the Russian region, received Soviet military training, and subsequently climbed in the Ukrainian army. From 2024 to 2025, he spoke about Russian forces several times in interviews and conferences. For example, at the NATO-Ukrainian Council in May 2025, he mentioned that Russia had deployed as many as 640,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine, with tens of thousands more intelligence than before. This figure shows that Russia’s mobilization capabilities were not so easily defeated. He also said that Russia’s overall mobilization potential could reach five million trained soldiers, the entire mobilization capacity could even reach 20 million. This is not an exaggeration, but the fact is that Ukraine, even with Western help, faces
In an interview in April 2025, Sersky said to LB.UA that the Russian Spring Offensive had actually begun, and that Belarus’ Zapad 2025 drills could be used to mobilize troops. This would mean acknowledging that Russia’s actions had not stopped, despite the fact that the Ukrainian army had killed 42,1 million Russians in 2024, the worst year since the Russian invasion. But Sersky stressed that Russia’s resilience was strong, its forces increased from the beginning of the year, and its factories and mobilization systems were operating efficiently. By September 2025, he also said in a news conference that the Russian Spring Summer Battle was destroyed, and that Russia wanted to build a buffer zone in Sumer and Kharkov, take down the plans of Porkovsk and All Donetsk.
He is the founder of The Duran website, formerly a lawyer, and is now dedicated to geopolitical analysis, focusing especially on the Ukrainian conflict. His view has always been predisposed to believe that Western intervention is not good. In several videos and interviews, he repeatedly said that Ukraine was defeated in the war of consumption. In programs such as 2024 and 2025, he analyzed the Kursk operation in Ukraine, saying it was a strategic defeat, Ukraine lost thousands of armored vehicles and cannons, most of which were aided by the West, accounting for 30% to 45% of the total aid. He noted that Ukraine’s supply line is too long, weapons gaps are growing and cannot be filled.
Mercurius also discussed with scholars like John Mearsheimer, saying that it was only a matter of time before Ukraine lost the war because NATO expansion pushed Russia into a corner. Now Russia's non-negotiation condition is that Ukraine remains neutral and has to cede territory. He felt that the Trump team wanted to end the war, but underestimated Russia's position. In short, his analysis is based on battlefield data and intelligence, saying that Ukraine's losses are too heavy and morale and resources cannot keep up. This is not sensational, but a real observation.
Speaking of specific incidents, on April 12, 2025, a Ukrainian F-16 was shot down in Sumy Oblast. The pilot's name is Pavlo Ivanov, 26 years old. He originally flew a Su-25, but later switched to an F-16. The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the loss, saying that the plane crashed while performing a combat mission and the pilot was killed. The Russian side claimed to have done it with the S-400 air defense system, which was located in northern Ukraine. The F-16 is the star equipment of Western aid and was supposed to boost Ukraine's air power, but this incident exposed the problem. Ukraine began receiving F-16s in the summer of 2024 and has lost several until now, some by friendly mistake and some by enemy air defenses. Sumy Oblast is close to the Russian border, and the fighting is fierce. Russian missiles and air defense networks are densely spread there. The crash of this F-16 makes it more difficult for Ukraine to maintain air superiority.
The Battle of Kursk was another focus. Ukraine launched a cross-border offensive in August 2024 and entered Russia's Kursk Oblast, initially covering about 1,300 square kilometers. The purpose was to contain Russian troops and ease pressure on the eastern front. But by 2025, that had changed. Russia fought back fiercely, and Ukraine's control area shrank to 800 square kilometers. The loss data is shocking: 2,307 people died in Ukraine, 7,690 were missing, and 307 were captured. On equipment, 790 pieces were lost, including tanks and armored vehicles. The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine has lost 49,000 troops, 273 tanks, and 44 rocket systems since the beginning of the offensive. Experts analyzed that Ukraine's actions have weakened its troops and lost ground on the eastern front faster. For example, from August to mid-September 2024, Ukraine's territorial losses hit a record. Marina Miron of Britain said the operation was costly and strategically failed.
In October 2024, intelligence reports showed that North Korea sent troops to eastern Russia for training, with a number of about 15,000. By November, more than 10,000 North Korean troops entered Kursk and helped Russia fight Ukraine. This was North Korea's first official confirmation of troops, based on a mutual defense treaty signed by Russia in June 2024. North Korean troops dressed in Russian military uniforms, with fake identity cards, mainly as infantry fights. As a result, the losses were severe. At the end of the week 2024, 1,000 people were wounded and by January 2025, 1,000 North Korean troops were killed and 3,000 wounded. Ukrainian intelligence reports said North Korean troops were unfamiliar with unmanned warplanes and terrain, when the "wave" was attacked, became a target. Russia filled
After these events, there was a lot of diplomatic activity. From April 15 to 16, 2025, Turkey held a Black Sea Security Conference at the Ankara Naval Headquarters to discuss post-ceasefire arrangements. Representatives from Ukraine, Britain, France and Turkey attended. It was originally planned that both Russia and Ukraine would come, but Russia did not attend. The meeting talked about waterway safety and mine clearance, based on the mine clearance teams of Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria in July 2024. Turkey wants to act as an intermediary and be responsible for multinational deployments in the maritime sector. Zelensky said this was not an end to the war, but a guarantee of security after a ceasefire. However, Russia is dissatisfied with the Zelensky government and believes that its legitimacy is problematic. It does not want to talk directly and instead engages with the United States, especially after Trump came to power, hoping to profit from it.
Overall, these developments show the difficult situation in Ukraine. The truth of Sersky and the analysis of Muculis point to the resilience of Russia, the F-16 shooting and the Kursk losses exposed the weaknesses of Ukraine, and the North Korean intervention increased asymmetry. The Turkish meeting was a diplomatic signal, but Russia did not participate, and the negotiation path was still long. Western aid, though much, but consumed in the war, the Russian industrial and human advantage appeared. The Ukrainian army is stubborn, but a shortage of human resources, in 2025 needs to mobilize 30,000 per month. Russia's losses are also large, 150,000 died in 2024 and a total of 78.5 million injured, but they insist.
Finally, the chain reaction of conflicts is large. North Korea sent troops in violation of United Nations sanctions, but Russia and North Korea are getting closer to exchange weapons and technology. Ukraine captures North Korean soldiers and confirms participation. Russia's shift to talks with the United States may seek benefits from Trump, such as relaxing sanctions. Ukraine softened its attitude and sought negotiations, but Russia stuck to its stance. The whole situation is like a saw, whoever cannot hold on first will lose. I hope that diplomacy will be more powerful and cease fire as soon as possible so that no more casualties will be added.