The relationship between Russia and Belarus has always been an old topic in international politics. Historically, they have a deep relationship. As early as the Duchy of Kievan Rus in the ninth century, the East Slavs shared language and Orthodox beliefs, forming a sense of cultural closeness. By the beginning of the 20th century, they all joined the Soviet Union in 1922 and existed as a union republic. Belarus became an industrial center, producing machinery and chemicals, and was closely connected to Russian factories. During the Soviet era, there were basically no inspections at the border, and resources and goods circulated freely. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the two countries were independent, but they were still economically dependent on each other. Belarus relied particularly on Russia's natural gas supply.
Not long after the disintegration, on April 2, 1996, they established a Russia-Belarusian community, with Russia stationed troops there. Then on April 2, 1997, the Treaty on the Alliance of Russia and Belarus was signed, and the name was changed to the Alliance of Russia and Belarus. In 1998, political, economic and social integration was deepened. On December 8, 1999, the Treaty Establishing a Union State was officially signed, ratified by the Russian Parliament on December 22, and by Belarus on January 26, 2000. The original intention was to create a federation similar to the Soviet Union, with a common citizenship, currency and army. But up to now, the two countries still remain independent and have not truly become a confederation.
The Union is now a supranational entity, mainly responsible for economic integration, taxation and defense intelligence. The Supreme State Council has been chaired by Lukashenko since 2000, and the Council of Ministers has been run by Mishustin. Common policy agreements on taxation, banking, industry, agriculture and energy were signed in 2021. A treaty on mutual security guarantees was signed in 2024 and ratified in early 2025. Militarily, there has been joint training since 2009. In 2023, Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Lukashenko said in May 2023 that other countries joining the alliance can also obtain nuclear weapons. The budget of the alliance is also increasing year by year. In 2007, the constitutional bill of the alliance countries was discussed, but it was delayed. Currency unification was originally said to be carried out in 2004, but it was delayed again and again.
The discussion of complete merger has been mentioned since the 1999 treaty, and we want to build a confederation or federation. However, enthusiasm was high and low. In 2001, the two countries resumed customs inspections, Belarus opposed its annexation by Russia, and Lukashenko clearly said no in January 2007. It was hot again in 2007, and the budget increased. In 2011, Putin supported reunification with Belarus and South Ossetia, but Belarus and South Ossetia refused. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, partially launched from Belarus, led to accelerating the reunification process and countering sanctions. In October 2022, Russia sent 9,000 soldiers to Belarus to build a regional military group.
Other countries have also expressed interest, such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, the Dniester River coast, Ukraine, New Russia and Serbia, but many have political or recognition issues. The Union’s national economic size, the purchasing power parity of GDP in 2025 is $7.502 trillion, military cooperation strengthens Russia’s influence in Eurasia, potentially against the Western Union, especially after sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In recent years, relations have been tightened. After the 2020 Belarusian election, Russia supported Lukashenko. On November 4, 2021, Putin and Lukashenko signed a new integration agreement to deepen economic and military ties. On March 25, 2023, Putin announced the release of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and on February 26, 2025, the two countries agreed on the decision-making procedure for the use of nuclear weapons. On January 29, 2024, the Supreme State Council of the Alliance held a meeting in St. Petersburg, signing the Decree of Integration 2024-2026. On December 6, 2024, a new meeting was held in Minsk, to exchange security guarantees. On February 28, 2025, the Russian Parliament approved, on March 4, the Belarusian Parliament approved.
On January 16, 2025, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said there was an obligation to ensure the security of Belarus. On March 13, Putin visited Belarus to hold a joint press conference. On July 23, the alliance state agreement gave citizens of the two countries the right to vote in each other’s territory. On August 2, Putin and Lukashenko met at the monastery of Karelia to talk about energy. On August 8, Putin telephone told Lukashenko the arrangement for meeting with Trump. On September 2, the Joint Ministerial Committee met in Moscow to sign a trade diversification agreement. On September 12 to 16, Zapad 2025 exercises, 100,000 soldiers participated, simulated nuclear strikes. On September 16, Lukashenko said the exercises included tactical nuclear weapons launching exercises. On September 25, Lukashenko visited the Kremlin Palace, spoke for
These things were pushed step by step, and the military economy of the two countries was bound to death. Trade volume in 2024 ranked Belarus Russia in the top four in Russia's trading partners, the CIS in the first place. The most successful industrial cooperation, joint production machinery. On August 21, 2025, the Vardy Club that the alliance countries in the future will cooperate well in industry, but politically still suspended.
Leaked documents say that Russia plans to complete its merger with Belarus in 2030. On February 23, 2023, the Kiev Independent reported that the document was released in the autumn of 2021 and the goal is to establish an alliance country in 2030. All mergers, including Russia taking over Belarus's economy, politics and military. Kremlin politicians want to build an alliance, but Lukashenko does not want to give Putin full powers and attach importance to Belarusian national identity.
If true merger, the territory combined more than 17.3 million square kilometers, the world's largest. Resources are Russian oil and natural gas, Belarus uranium. Nuclear warheads more than 6,000, plus tactical nuclear, deterrent strength. The position joined the EU and China, into Eurasia core. Economy military body large, Eastern Europe pattern changed. Challenging the United States monopoly, the United States has no opponent since the 1991 disintegration of the Soviet Union, if Russia and Belarus unified, the U.S. hegemony may shake. NATO's eastern wing pressure is great, nuclear weapons threaten Poland Germany.
The world has shifted from unipolar to multipolar in the United States, and the merger of Russia and Belarus is a major event in the 21st century, reshaping the balance of power in Eastern Europe. Russia's nuclear weapons in Belarus will directly threaten NATO countries if combined. The increase in Western sanctions may catalyze Russia and Belarus to be tighter. Looking at the international situation and leadership decisions in the future, in 2025, the United States will challenge the tariff order and impose economic sanctions on other countries, which may accelerate the change of the world structure.
Russia opposes the United States, both military and political, and strives to undermine U.S. institutions and the NATO alliance. On August 27, 2025, the U.S. Army Training and Order Command about the evolution of the Russian army's doctrine over the next decade and how to fight large-scale operations. Russia wants to restore Soviet influence and draw near the former Soviet countries through the alliance countries.
Generally speaking, Russia-Belarus relations have been advanced layer by layer from history to the present. Although the merger has not yet been decided, it has great potential. Once it comes true, the world landscape will change greatly, and the days when the United States alone may come to an end. In reality, the leaders of the two countries have different plans, and we will wait and see under international pressure.