On October 19, 2025, the Russian-Ukrainian war entered its 1333th day.
The refinery in Novi Kubisevsk, one of Russia's leading refining companies, caught fire last night.
Wood Mackenzie Research analyst Avampar Semi Singh said there are increasingly serious gasoline shortages in multiple regions of Russia and its occupied Ukraine. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have increased by about 40%, and fuel shortages have emerged across the country.
Picture of the scene of a row of fuel in Vladivostok (Shenzhen) in Russia in August:
At the end of September, the main Russian commercial media, The Businessman, that half of the Crimea occupied gas stations had stopped selling gasoline.
At the same time, some Crimean gas stations no longer have diesel.
In the past 24 hours, there have been no obvious changes in all major battlefields. Kupyansk and Pokrovsk, which are about to fall in Russian media, are also stable.
According to the Economist analysis, “Russia is paying a very high price for extremely limited outcomes on the battlefield.Many people are concerned about the difficult pace of Russian advancement and the shortage of Ukrainian troops exposed by the offensive, but this view itself is in the wrong direction.
During the summer offensive this year, Russia barely gained any substantial territory, and paid huge losses of personnel and equipment. Unless there were dramatic changes, Putin would not be able to win the war on the battlefield.
According to the Economist, it is impossible to know exactly how severe the Russian military's losses were, but based on satellite data and changes in the front-line control zone, the Russian military's losses can be estimated roughly:
"Our combined estimates show that Russian casualties from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January this year totaled 640,000 to 877,000, of which 137,000 to 228,000 were killed. By October 13, these figures had increased by almost 60% to 984,000 to 1.438 million casualties, of which 190,000 to 480,000 were killed.
However, Russia's losses have not brought commensurate territorial gains.
Since the end of Ukraine’s first counter-offensive in October 2022 and the stability of the front, the front line has hardly changed, and no big city is at hand.
At the pace of advance over the past 30 days, it will take until June 2030 to fully capture the four regions that Putin claims have been "annexed to Russia"-Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
It will take 103 years to occupy the entire Ukraine.
The Economist also stated that this year's Russian-Ukrainian death ratio is still about five to one, that is, for every five Russian soldiers killed, one Ukrainian soldier died. Following this trend, military strength may soon become a more serious constraint for Russia than Ukraine-
"In the early days of the offensive, the Russian army attracted soldiers to join the army with generous signing bonuses. Putin's recruitment speed was 10,000 to 15,000 troops ahead of Ukraine per month. But this summer's huge casualties may well have offset this advantage.
According to an estimate by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in 2024, only about 40 percent of the wounded Russian troops would eventually return to the front.
In the long run, the number of men in Russia who can be placed on the battlefields in eastern Ukraine is limited to the population of the country that reaches the age of service.
Last year, about 800,000 boys in Russia were over the age of 18.
When unlimited demand encounters limited supply, higher bonuses may be required to attract people into the army.
Otherwise, Putin may once again resort to compulsory conscription-although it is extremely unpopular at home.
According to our rough calculations, soldiers killed in the war accounted for 0.5% to 1.2% of the Russian male population under the age of 60 before the war.
Ukraine was 0.6% to 1.3% (estimated on the basis of UALosses’ “death” and “death + disappearance” data).
The Economist’s analysis also suggests that Russia’s economy is harder to support this war than it is for Ukraine.
"Although Russia's economy is much larger than Ukraine's, it is still insignificant compared to the combined number of Ukraine's allies. After three years of failed offensives, a sudden collapse may be more likely to occur in Russia's war economy than in Ukraine's defensive front. "
The battle result announced yesterday by the U.S. General Assembly killed and wounded 730 people.
Let's take a look at other news.
The son of Lieutenant General Akadi Marzoyev, former commander of the Russian Southern Military District, was killed in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.
Between January and July 2025, domestic procurement by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine increased by €3.6 billion compared to the same period last year.Weapons and equipment manufactured by Ukraine now account for 71.4% of all defense procurement.
In 2022, only about 10% of weapons produced locally in Ukraine; in 2023, this proportion will exceed 35%; by mid-2025, at least 40% of weapons will be produced domestically.
Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky has promised that by the end of this year, 50 percent of all weapons used on the front line will be made in Ukraine.
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said during talks with Hungarian Foreign Minister Sijarto that the explosion of the Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline was a defensive act by Ukraine, so Poland firmly refused to extradite the Ukraine suspects to Germany.
Polish Prime Minister DONALD TUSK: A Polish court has rejected a German request to extradite a Ukrainian citizen suspected of involvement in the Nord Stream 2 bombing. He has been released, rightfully so-the case has been closed.
Sijarto was dissatisfied with the decision, writing on X,"This is simply shameful: according to Poland, if you don't like a piece of infrastructure in Europe, you can blow it up." In doing so, they effectively pre-approved terrorist attacks across Europe. Poland not only freed a terrorist, it celebrated with him-the rule of law in Europe has fallen to this point."
Sikorski responded, "No, Peter. When a foreign aggressor bombs your country, it is perfectly legal to fight back by undermining the aggressor's ability to fund war. It's called self-defense"
A Polish judge said, “All Ukrainian soldiers and personnel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including the Special Forces, cannot be considered terrorists or destroyers because they defend the motherland by all available means and weaken the enemy. Destroying a country’s critical infrastructure by hostile intelligence agencies or terrorists during peacetime is indeed an act of destruction and crime. However, such actions taken by the Armed Forces against the critical infrastructure of the aggressor in a war of justice defense are not a crime! This is a military operation and cannot be considered a criminal crime. In other words, if Ukraine and its special forces organize a mission to destroy the enemy’s natural gas pipeline, then these actions are not illegal.
Zelensky said: “I had two-hour substantive talks with U.S. President Donald Trump that could really accelerate the end of the war. We discussed all the key issues: our position on the battlefield, long-range strikes, air defense issues, and of course the diplomatic prospects. Russia must stop its beginning and deliberately extend its aggression.
German Prime Minister Mattis said: "This visit was not what Zelensky expected. Europe must give more help, because only if Ukraine is strong militarily and the war can end.
"Ukrainian surrender is not an option because Russia will then attack the next European country".
The US media said that Trump had considered providing Ukraine with a "war ax" missile before the meeting, but it appeared to have retreated after a call with Putin on Thursday.
Asked if Putin just wanted to delay the time, Trump replied that he was not worried:
"I've been played by the most powerful people in my life, but I can get away with it," he said, adding, "It doesn't matter if it takes a little time. I think I'm quite good at this kind of thing."
Although Trump once again disappointed him, Zelensky still smiled when he was interviewed by reporters.
Faced with setbacks, he became increasingly calm.
At present, the ceasefire plan promoted by Trump should be an in-situ ceasefire.
I have said before that I will support whatever choice Ukraine ultimately make. As one blogger said,"No matter how thick the black fog is in front of us, no matter what the Ukraine ultimately choose, even if they actually kneel down in the end, they are already each other's heroes-they have fought for 'people' and of course they can surrender for 'people'-no one is more qualified to surrender than them."
Text/Xilou Drinking the Moon
If you want to give, please click '...' in the upper right corner Appreciation, thank you for your support!