Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, there has been a situation of one superpower and many powers in the world. As the only superpower, the United States has been regarding itself as the "number one in the world" for many years. However, in recent years, with the continuous development of China, some people say that the current China has already surpassed the Soviet Union at its peak, which makes the United States feel unprecedented shaking in its position.
So during the Biden administration, China was clearly defined as the "most important competitor" for the first time. This appears to be a defining moment, marking the final shift in global strategic focus. Even so, the United States has never thought of uniting with Russia to deal with China. Is it impossible or afraid?
A ghost killed.
The real fear of the United States does not come from Russia itself, but from the imagination of the combination of "Russia + Europe". Once this combination takes shape, it will be a behemoth enough to subvert the entire American hegemonic system. How about, let's outline this ghost.
Economically, it will be a super economy with a GDP of 18 trillion US dollars, which is large enough to compete with the United States. Its blood is the cheap energy and massive resources transported by Russia. Before the conflict broke out, these resources used to be the fuel on which Europe's industrial machinery ran.
Its skeleton is the advanced industry and technology of Europe, especially Germany. You know, the EU's chip technology has not been completely blocked, and its industrial potential is still huge. For example, Germany's Rheinmetall theoretically has the horrible potential to produce 700,000 tanks annually. Once this industrial strength is deeply integrated with Russia's resources, it will no longer arm NATO, but a Europe with independent will.
Projects like the Nord Stream Pipeline have far more symbolic significance than commercial value. It is an energy artery that circumvents the U.S. maritime hegemony. It is a concrete attempt by Eurasia to achieve internal circulation and get rid of external control. This unified European form that neither Napoleon nor Hitler could achieve, a super sector with completely consistent technology and resources, is the ultimate nightmare of the United States 'global strategy. In contrast, the threat from a distant China is much more indirect.
The Ukrainian surgery knife.
So the conflict in Ukraine has become a precision geopolitical surgical knife, and its primary goal has never been to completely defeat Russia, but in the heart of the European continent, to create a permanent, blood-flowing “cave”.
The real purpose of this war is to completely end any possibility of Russian-European integration, to completely transform Europe’s deeply rooted caution for Russia into a real hostility that can’t turn back.
Through this conflict, the United States successfully forced Europe to completely turn to itself in terms of energy and security, thereby once again tightening its control over the hegemonic trump card of "Europe."
The calculation of this deal is very smart. Pushing a Russia, which has been greatly weakened and crippled by war and sanctions, to China is a completely acceptable price in the eyes of American strategists.
After all, China and Russia are separated by the vast expanse of Siberia as a natural buffer, and the threat of their land alliance is relatively controllable. Once Russia and Europe are connected seamlessly, it will be a direct impact on the heart of U.S. hegemony.
More interestingly, Washington is also using this to require European allies to raise general spending to 5% of GDP, a trick that can be called a stone-two: both allowing Europeans to spend on their own to strengthen the defense line against Russia, but also allowing the United States to pull themselves, transferring the strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on China.
The price of victory is collapse
However, this seemingly perfect strategic “victory” was at the expense of a number of unfathomable structural cracks within the U.S. hegemony system, which are silently reflecting hegemony itself from the three dimensions of finance, industry and politics.
The first to shake was the foundation of financial hegemony. When sanctions completely introduced Russia’s dollar system, the result was a surge in the proportion of people’s currency settlements in China-Russia trade. According to the forecast, this figure will reach an astonishing 99.6% this year.
This means that an alternative cycle independent of SWIFT is accelerating, which is more disruptive than military confrontation. At the same time, China has also demonstrated its ability to respond accurately, such as restricting the lucrative RMB business of European banks in China, turning sanctions into a double-edged sword that harms 1,000 enemies and 800 self-harm.
Industrial phobia is even more deadly, and European politicians soon realize how impotent the harsh slogans against China are in the face of the real industrial chain.
The EU's new energy industry relies on China for up to 90% of its rare earth supply. In its booming electric vehicle industry, core battery materials are also inseparable from China.
In the context of this profound bondage, any so-called “disconnect” or sanctions are nothing more than a “suicidal” attack that will only ultimately accelerate Europe’s own deindustrialization and empty its industrial foundations.
Accidents on the chessboard
What makes Washington even more uneasy is that more and more uncontrollable variables are beginning to appear on the chessboard.
The first incident, Russia may be more “fragile” than expected, reveals its potential instability at an astonishing rate of 1,20,000 shells per day, as well as internal turmoil similar to the Wageners.
If Russia suddenly collapses, the script could go completely astray. On the contrary, Europe may become the biggest beneficiary, integrating its huge resources at a very low cost, and finally realizing the kind of Russia-Europe integration that the United States is most worried about.
The second accident is the centrifugal force within the alliance system. The painful price paid by following American policy has made the dissatisfaction within Europe increasingly fermented.
In Hungary and other countries, companies in Germany and France also complain about losses.More importantly, Europe is seriously preparing its own independent defense forces, such as the German Rapid Response Force, which is behind a deep distrust of the variability of U.S. policy.
conclusion
The United States has orchestrated a drama to try to maintain its shaky hegemony by severing ties with Eurasia. It successfully prevented the birth of an imaginary opponent, but unexpectedly spawned a real crisis in multiple dimensions.
This series of operations has provided China with an unprecedented period of strategic opportunities. It has greatly accelerated the internationalization of the RMB and made China's economic ties with countries in the global South closer, all almost without military confrontation.
History will ultimately prove that the resilience of a system ultimately depends on its economic foundation and industrial strength, rather than temporary geopolitical manipulation.
When chess players focus on sacrificing pieces and dividing the board, they may not realize that the real winner is the outsider who sees that the board is breaking and sets out to build a new board.
China Economic Network 2019-05-07 "Does the United States that sells teammates still want to unite Russia against China?"
2022-06-01 China Think Tank Research Report: The United States opens up a “big fence” against China, how can China prevent it?