India has promised to China that it will not become a traitor among the BRICS countries, that it will never export Chinese rare earth to the United States, while actively easing its restrictions on China, why has the attitude of New Delhi authorities suddenly changed 180 degrees?
In the past, when India's international attitude was mentioned, many people would think of "fence-sitting"-as a member of BRICS countries, it always gets close to the United States and Western groups, and even joins the "mineral security partnership" led by the United States, which makes people worry whether it will become a "traitor" in BRICS.
But recently, there is something strange about this matter. Many Indian companies suddenly voiced out collectively, saying that heavy rare earth permanent magnets bought from China only dare to be used domestically and will never be sold to the United States. This is not just a casual statement. It is simply a "military order".
You must know that rare earths are not ordinary materials. Motors, wind turbines and high-end electronic equipment of new energy vehicles are indispensable, especially heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, which are almost "vitamins" of modern manufacturing industry.
India has to show its loyalty to China despite the wooing of the United States. There must be a real doorway behind this change. Not suddenly conscientious discovery, not even a mess with the United States, that in the end, all real interests are forced out.
India dares to assure, the most fundamental reason is in two words: dependence. say some may not believe, India itself is not lacking in rare earth mines, but in the hands of the mine can not be "the owner of the mine" - its rare earth mines are mostly buried in complex rocks, the difficulty of mining is not to say, the processing technology is much worse than the global. Nearly 90% of heavy rare earth permanent magnets are made in China, and refining and processing capabilities are basically monopolized by China. This is not a gap that can be caught up in the short term.
In the fiscal year 2023-2024, India purchased 2,277 tons of rare earth metals and compounds, 60% of which came from China; by the fiscal year 2024-2025, 870 tons of rare earth magnets were imported, costing more than 3 billion rubles.
More importantly, China has just introduced new rules on rare earth exports, which include a "tough rule": as long as the proportion of China ingredients in a commodity exceeds 0.1%, it will be managed by China and exports must be approved. This means that even if Indian enterprises process Chinese rare earths into parts, as long as they contain a little "Chinese ancestry", they have to get the consent of China if they want to sell them to a third country.
India is now focusing on building a "manufacturing center", and key industries such as new energy vehicles and renewable energy are all supported by rare earths. If you really dare to sell China rare earths to the United States, if you are found to have cut off the supply, India's factories will have to shut down.Modi's dream of "Made in India" was directly shattered in half. This practical bundling of interests is more effective than any political commitment.
Moreover, recently, China has shared rare earth processing technology with Malaysia and supported Malaysia's accession to BRICS countries, which can remind India.If you don't listen, China will have other partners for cooperation. By then, not only will it not be able to get rare earths, but it will also be marginalized in the BRICS circle. India is clear in its heart that it will not pay for it if it gets into trouble with China.
Only interest dependence is not enough, and the fire of political relations must follow.If China-India relations are also sword-breaking, printing Even if Du wanted to show his loyalty, he would not dare to be too blatantly, for fear that the United States would seize hold of it and retaliate. But the situation has changed since the beginning of this year, and China-India relations are obviously improving.
Only when the politics is smooth can the hands and feet in economy and trade be liberalized. Prime Minister Modi is still waiting to go to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin summit, which in itself is a signal of goodwillIn the past, India has always swung between China and the United States, on the one hand, want to rely on the United States to balance China, on the other hand, can not separate from China's supply chain, often difficult for both sides.
Now China-India relations have stabilized, India's statement of "not selling rare lands" has less concerns--It will not be regarded as a "traitor" by China, but it can also explain it to the United States with "industry needs" so as not to cause a deadlock in relations.
India dares to be so loyal to the Chinese watch, and there is one important reason: The "benefits" given by the United States are too empty to fall to the ground.Although India has previously signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States on critical mineral supply chain cooperation, and also proposed to sign a binding partnership agreement, these things are "drawing a big pie" to put it bluntly.
First of all, it is still unknown whether this agreement can be achieved.U.S. elections next month, the new government will not change after the policy, no one can say, India's proposal can only be stopped first. and even if signed, the U.S. own rare earth production capacity can not follow.
Although the United States has joined the circle of "Mineral Security Partnership", its mining and processing capacity is insufficient, and it will take several years to supply rare earths to India. India can't afford to wait. Now the new energy industry is scrambling for time, and it will have to be left behind by competitors after a few months of supply cut off.
More importantly, the U.S. benefits with “additional conditions.”The tax exemption for electric vehicles in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act requires key minerals to come from the United States or countries with free trade agreements. India signed the agreement to get the $7500 subsidy.
But this subsidy is for enterprises, and it has nothing to do with whether India can get rare earths. In contrast, what China gives is "spot"-as long as you obey, rare earths can be shipped immediately and factories can start operations normally. On the one hand, there are distant subsidies and on the other hand, there is the immediate supply chain. India will definitely choose the latter.
India also knows in its heart that by inviting it to engage in "China" rare earth chains, the United States is essentially using it as a pawn.The United States itself cannot solve the problem of rare earth processing, but also wants to make India a "transitional station" and put other countries' rare earth together against China, which is not realistic at all.
Previously, the United States hyped that China's rare earth control was "confrontation with the world," but was rejected by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, saying it was a non-proliferation measure in line with international practice. If India follows the United States, it will only end up losing itself.
Therefore, India’s choice is pragmatic: not to tear the face of the United States, but never to gamble on its own industrial life.Issuing a military order to "not resell rare earths" not only keeps China as a "supplier", but also leaves a way for the United States. It can also gain a "reliable" reputation among BRICS countries. It is a three-pronged goal.
In the end, India's attitude shift is not a "conscience discovery", not to turn completely to China, but a complete pragmatic choice.The vital gate of the industry in hand is pinched here in China, the political relationship is just picking up, and the benefits given by the United States are unreal. Anyone else would choose this way.
However, it must also be clear that India's "loyalty" has a period of retention. before it had a "say a set to do a set" preface, if one day the United States really gave real benefits, or the China-India relationship again broke out, it would not be a rumor or bad to say.
But at least for now, India has recognized that "following China to get rare earths" is more cost-effective than "following the United States to draw a big pie."This interest-based choice is the most authentic in international relations.
Reference: India promises not to export China rare earths to the United States