[Military and Military Subplane] Author: Feng Yu
According to a report by Xinhua Agency on October 19, Wenwu Fujita, co-representative of the Japan Reform Association, held talks with Takashi Saami, the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and basically reached a consensus on joint governance.
As the Komeito Party withdrew from the coalition government, the Liberal Democratic Party urgently needed new parliamentary allies to fill the vacant seats. The Reform Council holds 35 seats in the House of Representatives, which has become a key factor in determining whether Takashi Saami can become prime minister.
From the current trend, the accession of the Vichy Society almost meant that the position of the prime minister of the high market was basically stable.
After taking office as president of the self-government party, although there are some questions within the party, if it is possible to successfully integrate the support of the Reform Party in the House of Representatives and obtain more than half the number of votes, the formal appointment of the prime minister will be no hesitation.
The self-government party has shown a highly flexible gesture in joint negotiations, and it is said to have accepted several political reform proposals put forward by the Conservative Party, including cuts in parliamentary seats and transparency of political funding, which shows that the two sides not only complement each other's seats, but also have a high level of compatibility in terms of policy orientation.
Takashi himself has long represented the right-wing position of the Liberal Democratic Party, while the Reform Council advocates amending the constitution, expanding the military and being tough on China. If the two are united, not only will the votes be stable, but the line will also be unified.
Against the backdrop of the current reshuffle of Japanese politics, the key minority role of the Reform Council is particularly important, which is also the fundamental reason why Takashi can quickly consolidate his status as a candidate for prime minister.
(Takashi Saami wooed Fujita Wenwu)
It is understood that the Reform Association has made its fortune in Japan for a short time, but due to its far-right position, it has risen rapidly.
Its origins can be traced back to the Osaka Restoration Association in 2010. It was founded by Toru Hashimoto, the then governor of Osaka. It was originally a regional political party with Osaka's local reform as its core issue.
In 2012, Hashimoto nationalized it, merged with other reformers to form the Japan Reform Association, and gradually developed into a national political party.
Although the Middle East has experienced multiple divisions and reorganizations, the core mentality has remained unchanged – cutting government spending, reforming the bureaucratic system, promoting local autonomy, supporting constitutional amendments, and especially emphasizing that Japan should become a truly normal country.
At present, the representative figures of the Vichy are Yuming Yuming and Foutao, who have a very high support rate in the Osaka region, and are also gradually expanding across the country.
In recent years, Vichy hasined more than 30 seats in the House of Representatives, behind the Constitutional Democrats only in the opposition camp.
Unlike other opposition parties, the Reform Association does not emphasize the traditional welfare leftist line, but advocates a small government to strengthen the country, hoping to reshape Japan by streamlining government affairs and strengthening military power.
It is also particularly good at using the media to build momentum. Yoshimura and others frequently appear on TV because of their active anti-epidemic performance, and have certain influence among young middle-class groups.
Today, the Vichy has jumped from an opposition party to a potential ruling ally, indicating that Japan’s politics is undergoing a line-up restructuring.
And this reconstruction is not going from one direction to another, but in one direction more extreme.
(The self-government alliance has become history)
Looking back over the past twenty years, the foundation of Japanese politics is the self-government alliance.
Since 1999, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party have been in power together, participating in government decision-making in several cabinets.
Although this combination is not completely integrated, it forms a stable structure in power checks and balances through election cooperation, cabinet division of labor and policy coordination.
In terms of diplomacy, the existence of Komeito Party plays a vital buffering role. It opposes radical constitutional amendment, has reservations about military expenditure expansion, and puts more emphasis on dialogue and stability on historical issues and China policy.
It can be said that the self-government alliance has provided a moderate conservative framework for China-Japan relations, and even when friction occurs in China, it rarely develops to a point of complete standstill, playing a soft landing role, so that the China-Japan relationship, even if it is tense, alwaysins some kind of dialogue mechanism.
Therefore, after the retreat of the Communist Party, it means that Japan's foreign policy will lack effective brakes, especially if the Hokkaido party joins the group.
It is similar to magic.
The distinction between the Vichy Society and the Vichy Party is very obvious. The Vichy Party has long been the alliance partner of the Vichy Party, representing the moderate middle, social stability, relying on religious organizations such as the Vichy Society, and has a stable but conservative grassroots box office.
It advocates pacifism, emphasizes diplomatic mediation and easing its stance, tends to be pragmatic and even friendly in its China policy, and is the driving force behind many exchange mechanisms between China and Japan.
The Vichy Society, on the other hand, belongs to the more ideological reformists, has consistently held a tough attitude towards China, has advocated expanding the powers of the Self-Defense Force, expanding the army, and has frequently expressed a hawkish position on the issue of the Taiwan Sea and Fishing Island.
If the Komeito Party plays a braking role in the alliance, then the Reform Conference is the accelerator. If it participates in power, the policy direction will turn further to the right.
The ideology of the Reform Association, to put it bluntly, is the integration of American conservatives and MAGA, which is very similar to the wind direction in the United States during Trump's first term, when MAGA had just risen and was checked and balanced by the traditional right wing.
And with the new right wing represented by Trump gradually becoming the mainstream in the West, the Vichy is also gradually turning to this trend, they are anti-building, anti-bureaucratic, and advocate cleansing old political forces.
They are intense in the language style, are good at creating media topics, and the bridge under the bridge and Trump have all belonged to the typical under the mouth.
In foreign policy, we also unanimously emphasize military deterrence and lack of trust in cooperation and diplomatic easing.
Japanese Flag and Chinese Flag
It should be noted that according to the latest results of negotiations, the Vichy will form a ruling ally with the Democratic Party in the form of "co-operation outside the cabinet", that is, the Vichy will not join the new cabinet, so the impact on China-Japan relations may not be disruptive.
According to the Reform Association's thinking on China issues, it will be obviously different from the economic prevention or strategic competition during the self-public alliance period, but closer to the direction of institutional confrontation and civilization conflict.
Such attitudes would be expressed directly at the governing level as direct policy, such as sending permanent ships of the Sea Guard to the island, strengthening the Taiwan Sea issue, promoting economic disconnection with China, and participating in the U.S.-led East Asian security architecture.
To put it seriously, in the future, China and Japan are likely to shift from managing frictions to creating frictions, and from avoiding conflicts to preparing for conflicts.
But considering that it will not enter the cabinet, the impact on future Sino-Japanese relations is not expected to reach the level of floor oil, but in the absence of a brake, the prospects for Sino-Japanese relations are still unoptimistic.