In recent years, the relationship between the two countries has become more and more stiff, and many people feel that the two great countries have gone through the phase of experimenting with each other, and now more are thinking about when and what will trigger the fire.

In May 2025, a German newspaper, The Daily, directly threw the point, saying that China and the United States are now not thinking about how to escape the war, but to start calculating when the war will come and what can explode.

On January 20, 2025, Trump was sworn in for the second time, shooting the table and speaking to restart the trade war with China, which was much harder than the one in 2018.In February, he added 10 percent tariffs, in March jumped to 20 percent, and in April just jumped to 60 percent, which is faster than rocket ride.

In May, Trump made a hard remark on Twitter, saying that the tariffs would never be cancelled, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately replied, "accompany it to the end". But American companies can't bear it first. On May 3rd, Nike and Adidas jointly wrote to the White House, saying that the tariff has become an "existential threat", which means that it will not survive if it rises again.

Trump couldn't listen to persuasion. On October 10th, he directly announced that an additional 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese goods from November 1st. Counting the previous tax rate, the tariffs on some goods directly rushed to 130%. At this time, American companies were completely panicked, and Wal-Mart rushed to lobby the government for exemption, but Trump was determined to let go.

The market is the most honest, three hours after the news came out, the S & P 500 index plummeted, evaporating nearly $700 billion. The report of the tax base fund is more realistic, saying that these tariffs are spread to every American family, which means paying an extra US $1300 a year, which is equivalent to paying a trade war from the pockets of ordinary people.

China has not been soft on its side. It began to reduce rare earth exports on May 6, and directly upgraded controls on October 12. It not only managed raw materials, but also included related technology and equipment. It also blacklisted 12 American companies.

More than 90% of the rare earth in the United States is dependent on China, and 90% of the world's rare earth separation extract production capacity is in the hands of China.The United States is rushing to transfer domestic supply of mines, separation factories can be built for at least five years, environmental protection costs are still scary, not too soon.

As a result, the shortage of magnets in the factory of Tesla Chicago stopped production for a week, the Ford SUV production line stopped, even Lockheed Martin's F-35 fighter aircraft delivery was affected, and the real economy was empty, which is more unbearable.

The trade war has not yet separated the victory, the more deadly game has been played in the key resource field, which is also an important reason for the German media to say "conflict risk accumulation."Rare earth is only the first card that China emerged, not long, the second card of medical raw materials is also on the table, which directly hit the soft ribs of the American people.

The United States is the world's largest consumer of drugs, but most of the raw materials for commonly used drugs such as penicillin and amoxicillin have to be imported from China. These drugs are not high-end patented drugs, but they are the "foundation" of the American public medical system. Without anything, there will be trouble.

At the time of the 2020 epidemic, the U.S. had a surge in drug purchases, which was only a small preview.There are U.S. media accounts, if China really did work on medicinal raw materials, the U.S. pharmaceutical industry chain would have to be like an ICU with power disruption, completely unmovable.

Trump also wanted to find help, pull up India together "saving ground", but he forgot that India's eighty percent of the raw materials drugs also come from China, let India separate from China's raw materials to produce, and make no difference from the magic of people's empty hands.

Does American pharmaceutical companies build their own raw material factories? Environmental protection approval would have to be stuck for two years, and the cost overrun would not be exceeded by three times, so in the end, they had to give up. This industrial chain cannot be broken just by saying it, and how can the technology and production capacity accumulated through 30 years of hard work be replaced in the short term?

In addition to the hard impact in the economic sector, the friction in geography has not stopped.Especially in the Taiwan issue, the risk line has risen under the US-China corner.

On June 24, 2025, former Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said in a speech at the London School of Economics that China and the United States are now engaged in a trade war and military friction. If the conflict gets out of control, it will be disastrous. This is not groundless. It is clear by looking at the military expenditures and recent actions of both sides.

China-U.S. relations will be more tense in 2025 and trade war military frictions will double.The German media says the two countries are concerned about when why it will break out, and the future will have to look at the choices of the leaders.

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