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Trump announced a summit in Budapest, Hungary, with Putin to discuss Ukraine. Putin faces the risk of being shot down or arrested on the flight because of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Shortest trip to Ukraine but extremely dangerous; second trip to Poland and Slovakia with potential threats; safest but far away need to circumvent Turkey and Serbia. Hungary, although supporting Putin and withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, still has a legal obligation.
As a senior KGB, Putin was not a strategist, but must be a dumb dumb dumb. On August 15th, two months ago, he failed to stop his two-and-a-half-hour phone call in order to prevent Trump from delivering a tactical rocket to Ukraine that could break the Kremlin Palace, once again dumb Trump believed he was willing to end the war and agreed to hold a peace summit with him in Budapest.
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would meet with Putin in Hungary’s capital Budapest to hold another summit on Ukraine, Hungarian President Viktor Orban praised Hungary as “the only place in Europe where such a meeting could be held,” and in fact the only two countries left in Europe willing to serve and provide security for Putin.
However, the choice of location also brings practical and legal obstacles to Russian President Putin, as he has been sought by the International Criminal Court. Unlike the United States, European countries are mostly members of the International Criminal Court. Putin could not reach Budapest if he did not cross NATO airspace or the International Criminal Court (ICC) registered national airspace.
According to an arrest warrant issued against Putin by the International Criminal Court, this means Hungary and its neighbors, including Serbia and Romania, are technically obligated to detain him if his aircraft enters their airspace.
The announcement of the summit’s venue has sparked a diplomatic quarrel, and on October 17, the German Foreign Ministry urged Budapest to arrest Putin.
While other European countries have not explicitly issued a diplomatic urge to arrest Putin, in the hearts of the people of most European countries, most would want to either arrest Putin in Hungary or shoot him down in the sky flying to Hungary.
In order to prevent the Axis from falling into the hands of the Ukrainians, Putin must look like he is willing to end the war, with Trump and the Serpent. But he risked being captured or attacked by aircraft to fly to Budapest, only one of the three routes, the safest but at the same time the most distant.
The shortest but most dangerous three-hour route.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a direct flight from Moscow to Budapest took only about three hours, passing through Belarus and western Ukraine.
Now it is almost impossible for Putin to fly in Ukrainian airspace because the sky in Ukraine is an active war zone. The symbolic flight path over Ukraine will have incredible risks, especially in the western regions beyond Russian control.
Even without an official order to try to shoot down Putin's plane, no unit in Ukraine, which possesses heavy weapons, would be able to give up the opportunity to avenge the casualties of Ukraine soldiers and the shattered country. If Putin's plane dares to fly over Ukraine, he is in danger of being attacked every second.
Putin’s concerns about security are well-known. According to Russian media reports, earlier this year, when he visited the Kursk region, his helicopter was close to the “rand” of a Ukrainian drone attack, when he was upset.
Number two: a five-hour route with a moderate journey but also a risk of attack.
Another possibility for Putin to fly to Budapest is to pass through Belarus into Poland and then south through Slovakia into Hungary, which takes a five-hour route.Slovakia, like Hungary, although it is a member of the European Union, has always sympathized with Moscow, which is Russia’s two loyal little brothers within the European Union.
Earlier this week, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico used his veto to block Europe’s new sanctions on Russia. Earlier this year, he also violated Brussels’ diplomatic ban to travel to Moscow, where he shrugged his hands with Putin and attended Russia’s Victory Day parade.
However, while Slovakia probably won't have a problem, Poland will. As one of Ukraine's staunchest allies, not only has it recently fallen victim to a suspected Russian drone invasion, it also has a historic blood feud with Russia.
In response to a Russian drone attack on Polish airspace, Poland told Russia that Moscow shouldn't have any "complaints" if its aircraft or missile were shot down over NATO territory.
Poland is a member of NATO and one of the most firm supporters of the International Criminal Court. While Warsaw is unlikely to target Putin’s presidential aircraft – an act that could trigger World War III. But nobody can rule out that there are soldiers willing to be held accountable, admitting to mistakenly touching the air defense missile button. This probability, no matter the size, must exist. Putin will not gamble with probability politically and militarily.
The most distant but safest eight-hour route.
For Putin, the most reasonable route to Budapest takes eight hours, extending south to Turkey, a member of NATO and has always avoided breaking ties with Moscow. From there, Putin can bypass Greece, cross the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas, and head north.
Then his aircraft could pass through Montenegro, which is a member of the International Criminal Court and NATO, but Montenegro’s territory is small and air defense forces are weak. Soon it will fly into Serbia, Serbia remains one of Russia’s few European allies. From there, flying to Hungary will be easy.
Earlier this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu changed his usual flight route from Israel to New York, avoiding the European continent and turning over the Strait of Gibraltar.
Even with the third seemingly safe route, Russians are worried about the safety of Putin's flight to Budapest.
The remains of the crashed plane of the former Iranian president.
Russian propagandist and analyst Emily Ferris said she did not want European nations to be viewed by Russia as an obstacle to peace. “The key point in the danger Putin faces is that if an emergency occurs on the plane, the aircraft is forced to land. Will the Congress execute an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court? or will they force his aircraft to land and arrest him in this way?
Emily Ferris tried to persuade Europeans to rule out risks for Putin's trip: "They could have stopped him from flying, but I don't know why they would. You can disagree with Putin and war, but if the United States tries to force Putin to the negotiating table, stopping him from flying is unnecessary."
Hungary has made every effort to prepare for Putin. A Hungarian spokesman confirmed that Hungary began withdrawing proceedings from the International Criminal Court in April, but the process will take a year to take effect, which means Hungary is still technically obligated to arrest Putin. However, this possibility does not seem to exist. In April this year, Hungary received Netanyahu, who also received an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, but no incidents occurred in Hungary.
Orban is a long-time ally of Trump and maintains close ties with Putin. He said that if the U.S. and Russian foreign ministers resolve outstanding issues in talks next week, the meeting could take place within two weeks.
I hope Putin can spend ten more hours safely arriving in Hungary and then safely arriving in Russia. If there is a shooting down or arrest in the middle, it must be God's will: God can't stand it anymore and must immediately end the war of this old empire's invasion of a weak neighbor.
The Author: Xu三郎