In recent years, the operation of the United States can really look embarrassing, on the one hand, the government has stopped bustling the internal chickens and dogs, the army has to rely on the abuse of scientific research funds; on the other hand, it is also proactive, in the field of trade simultaneously launched three campaigns, the result is not one to understand, in turn, make yourself busy.
First of all, the domestic horror of the U.S. “removing the East Wall and replenishing the West Wall” was caused by the delay of Congress in allocating funds, the government officially stopped from October 1, and the first thing that was affected was the U.S. military – the military personnel did not get out.
There is no choice, but the United States can only come up with a faint trick, that is, misappropriate the military's scientific research funds, and this transfer is US $8 billion. This money was originally used to engage in military technology research and development and maintain laboratory operations, but now it has all filled the hole in military pay.
Although this is done, this week's military personnel salary is hardly down, the military members can eat, but the hidden cost has grown, military projects are stagnant, technological development and failure, these losses are not short-term can be reimbursed.
Ironically, in the two weeks before the shutdown, a large number of military members have been forced to lay down their bodies because they did not receive salary and had to go to rescue stations to take bread. Think about the people who dressed in military clothes to protect the country, but the family is to survive on rescue, this picture is so blurred? and all of this has come out of the Congress, is still messing with each other for the issue of allocation, completely regardless of the deaths of ordinary military families.
Just when the internal affairs were in chaos, the United States took the initiative to light three fires in the trade field, but the first fire would burn its own hand. This "Oolong Story of Ship Charges" is simply an annual absurd drama. In April, the Office of the United States Trade Representative launched a 301 investigation into China's maritime sector.
On October 14, the United States officially took action and announced that it would impose additional berthing fees on China container cargo ships docked at U.S. terminals. The charges for a single ship ranged from hundreds of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The reasons were both "fair competition" and "national security."
China, of course, will not sit down, directly introduced the "Method of implementation of the special port charges for U.S. ships to collect ships", the net tonnage charges, 400 yuan / net tonnage from year to year, also clarified the scope of exemption and annual charges cycle. the Ministry of Commerce on October 16 also specifically responded to this matter, saying that the U.S. side is determined to implement restrictive measures, and China's countermeasures are entirely "legitimate defense".
As soon as the policy landed, China Customs and Port Authority implemented it vigorously and vigorously. On October 14th, the "Manukai" of Matson Company of the United States docked at Ningbo Port, and was directly charged nearly 5 million yuan, which became the first case to be charged.
But what about the United States? He was completely in a state of "the second monk couldn't figure it out". Because of the government shutdown, the staff responsible for collecting fees did not go to work for two weeks and did not receive wages. No one knew how much money to collect, what form to use, and how to fill in the process. The dispute was originally started by him, but in the end, he became the most chaotic party, and he couldn't even figure out the score. In this first round, China won a small game. It was not how powerful the win was, but because the opponent was too strong.
Immediately afterwards, there was another joke in the second battle. This time the protagonist was actually "gutter oil". The trigger was that China stopped importing U.S. soybeans. Trump became anxious and posted a post on social media saying it was "economic hostility." He also threatened retaliation, claiming to end the import of edible oil from China.
This came out, many people wondered: China is clearly the world's largest consumer of soybean oil and edible oil, and the first largest importer, very rarely exports foreign edible oil, the United States is too uncomfortable to find the object of retaliation, right?
Later, it became clear that Trump was not talking about ordinary cooking oil at all, but “usedcookingoil”, which is what we often call the oil of land. The doorway here can be deep. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in 2024, China exports to the United States about 4,000 tons of ordinary cooking oil, worth only 10 million dollars.
But the United States is China's largest export market for waste food oil, light 2024 bought more than 1 million tons, worth more than $ 1 billion, the amount is 100 times that of ordinary food oil.
After recycling, it can be turned into bio-diesel, aircraft fuel and other renewable energy, carbon emissions are still low, now the world is engaged in green development, this thing has long been unnecessary.
China, as the world’s largest crude oil producer, does not bother to sell. Even if the United States does not buy, it can turn its head to sell to other countries in need, but the loss is the United States itself – either it can not find such a stable source of goods, or it will have to spend higher prices to buy elsewhere.
Trump's operation, said to be revenge on others, is actually more like digging a hole for himself. Although there is no clear document saying that the United States has really imposed an embargo, his shout in the interview is equivalent to raising the flag of the second battle by himself, and as a result, he lost his momentum before the battle started.
Compared to the first two games, the third rare-earth campaign can be more hard, China directly brought out the real-weapon control measures. in the new rules there are two special key: as long as the content of Chinese rare-earth in the product reaches 0.1%, it must be declared to the Chinese government; and when the declaration must be filled in Chinese, and must use the Chinese office software WPS, Microsoft's Word, Excel these are not good.
This can be stamped into the pain of the United States, U.S. Finance Minister Bessent jumped out accusations, saying China's rare-earth export control is "controversial to the world", also called on allies together with China to disconnect. but this word can not stand, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly responded, clearly stated that China's control is in line with international practice, the purpose is to maintain regional stability, completely reasonable and legal.
The fundamental reason why Bessant is so anxious is that the United States is really unable to live without China's rare earths, and there is no alternative in the short term. Even if the United States unites all its allies to treat rare earths as a national-level project, it will take at least five years to catch up with China's production capacity.
You should know that rare earth is a "vitamin" in high-tech industries. Everything from mobile phone chips to new energy vehicles to fighter jets and missiles can not be separated from it. China's technological and production capacity advantages in the field of rare earth refining and processing have been accumulated over the past few decades. It is not something that can be caught up with just building a few factories.
Now China not only controls exports, but also has set a threshold on the declaration process, which is equivalent to strangling a key link in the industrial chain.Those foreign enterprises who are used to using Microsoft software and writing English reports, now have to learn Chinese and install WPS, this wave of operation is simply "bottom-up payroll", both materials and rules.
Looking back at the game of more than half a month, it's really interesting. The United States made a mess at home first, and the shutdown of the government led to the paralysis of the administrative system, and no one would even collect a fee; It happened that his heart was higher than the sky, and he wanted to overwhelm China in trade. As a result, three battles were fought, and none of them took advantage.
The ship charges war, China's efficient execution received money, the United States has become a blurred account; the crude oil dispute, Trump broke out, instead exposed the United States' energy demand shortage; the rare-earth control war, China brought out hard power, the United States hurried to jump but not the same. This is a "trade game", more like the United States' unilateral "embarging performance."
In fact, in the end, the trade game is about comprehensive strength and internal coordination capabilities. The U.S. problem now is that the domestic consumption is too serious, Congress and government mess, the administrative departments are stalled, even the basic governance capabilities are in trouble, how can there be a trade war with China?
The next situation is also worthy of attention. I don't know how long the shutdown of the US government will last, which will definitely have a greater impact on their trade countermeasures; The game in the field of rare earths may escalate, and the United States may make more small moves; There is also the export flow of gutter oil. If it is really resold to other countries, new trade channels may be opened up.
However, one thing is certain. By relying on "tearing down walls to pay for wages" to maintain operations and relying on "black oolong operations" to launch a trade war, it is difficult for the United States to take advantage of this wave of operations. On the contrary, in this game, China has not only defended its own interests, but also demonstrated its calm confidence. We can really look forward to subsequent development.