Pakistan and Afghanistan are still fighting fiercely on the border. The Pakistani army claimed to have killed many people on the other side and destroyed many Afghan outposts; Afghanistan accused the Pakistani army of killing and wounding more than 100 people; on the afternoon of the 15th, both sides suddenly announced a 48-hour ceasefire at the same time.
Even more striking is the fact that Pakistan says “It is Afghanistan that asks us for a ceasefire”, but Afghanistan, on the contrary, “It is Pakistan that repeatedly asks for it to agree,” this sudden ceasefire, who was the first to let go of it?
48 hours of war and ceasefire
On the night of 14 October, a rocket bombing in the Mohmand tribal area in Kabir-Pushto province, Pakistan, on the border with Afghanistan, broke the peace of the late night.
The Pakistan military later confirmed that the border post was attacked by "Pakistan Taliban"(TTP) militants. Five soldiers were killed on the spot and three others were injured. The attack became a trigger and instantly ignited the long-standing conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
On the early morning of the 15th, F-16 fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force quickly took off and crossed the "Duran Line" to carry out precision strikes against TTP targets in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan. According to the battle report released by the military, the air strikes destroyed three militant training camps and ammunition depots, killing at least 12 people.
The Afghan interim government reacted fiercely, with Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Suhir Shahin holding a press conference for the first time, denouncing the Pakistani actions "feeble and cruel" and accusing them of "serious violations of Afghan territorial sovereignty."
Pakistan announced on the same day that it would close all border ports, including Tokham and Chaman. These ports are the most important personnel and cargo channels between the two countries. The daily customs clearance volume at Chaman Port alone exceeds 15,000 passengers and more than 3000 trucks. The Afghan interim government has sent more troops in the border areas. The head of the defense department has said that "every inch of land will be defended." Both sides have massed heavy troops on both sides of the border, and war is imminent.
Who could imagine, the situation took a sharp turn after two days, on the afternoon of the 16th, the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Provisional Government of Afghanistan, Vardak, met with the Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan, Wang Dung, the two sides' talks lasted two hours, and after the meeting, Vardak changed his previous tough attitude, expressing "will to resolve differences through dialogue."
On the 17th, the officials of the two countries confirmed that they would send a delegation to Doha in Qatar for bilateral negotiations, from the sword to the negotiating table, behind this 48-hour sharp twist, hidden in the hidden push of multiple forces.
The Chinese Statement
When Vardak initially sought to communicate with China, the outside world generally speculated that he wanted to draw China’s “background” for Afghanistan. Previously, the Taliban interacted frequently with India, just signed a 5,000-ton food aid agreement in early October, India also upgraded its embassy in Arabia from the office level to the ambassador level, clearly with the intention of using external forces to balance Pakistan. According to the rule, after the airstrikes, the Arab side should have sought support for the role that can pressure Pakistan.
In the talks and subsequent responses with Vardak, China did not follow the words of the Albanian side to criticize the Pakistani side, nor did the Pakistani side rush to clear the Albanian terrorists, but instead threw the statement of balancing the demands of both sides: "Respect for the territorial integrity and sovereign independence of Afghanistan, while understanding the security threats facing the counter-terrorism of Pakistan."
For Afghanistan, the expression "respecting territorial integrity" directly responds to its dissatisfaction with Pakistan's cross-border air strikes and gives enough face at the level of sovereignty. Since its establishment, the Afghan interim government has always regarded safeguarding territorial sovereignty as its core demand. China's statement has given it a way to face domestic public opinion.
For Pakistan, "understanding the needs of anti-terrorism" recognizes the rationality of its actions-TTP has long launched attacks based in Afghanistan, causing nearly 200 military and police casualties in Pakistan in the first nine months of 2025 alone, and the pressure of anti-terrorism has long been overwhelmed.
China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic partners and one of the first countries to communicate with the provisional government of Afghanistan, and this double-trust relationship gives its statements an irreplaceable proportion. China has not lived as a “mediator” but has become a key force in promoting dialogue with a neutral gesture.
Ba's "unmovable" and "unaffordable"
China's statement can play a role, essentially because both Pakistan and Afghanistan have fallen into the realistic dilemma of "unable to move and unable to afford it". On Pakistan's side, it is no longer a question of "whether you want to fight or not", but a question of "whether you can bear it or not".
As the core node of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the security situation continues to deteriorate. In the first half of 2025, there were 17 attacks on Chinese companies in the region, which resulted in Chinese companies being forced to evacuate some technical personnel and the port expansion project was temporarily stalled. The Pakistan military had to deploy elite troops to guard the corridor, and the deployment of troops had become tense.
The west has to deal with the harassment of TTP, and the east has to guard against India's military actions-the Indian Army has deployed more than 200,000 troops in Kashmir and has conducted frequent live-fire exercises recently. If it falls into a long-term conflict with Afghanistan again, Pakistan will completely fall into the dilemma of "double-line pressure".
The situation in Afghanistan is equally difficult. The mouth screams “anti-air attack” is quite hard, but really to clear up the TTP within the territory, can not be separated from the Pakistan cooperation. The TTP and the Afghan Taliban although belonging to the Pushtous armed forces, but the former is loyal to the tribal forces within the territory of Pakistan, the activity area is more in the blurred area of the Ba'a border, without the Pakistan provided intelligence support, the Albanian even difficult to lock the target location.
More realistically, India's promised 5,000 tons of food aid will not be delayed, the domestic food shortage in Afghanistan has reached 3 million tons, and the international aid material transmitted through Pakistan will also be hindered if it is completely stuck with Pakistan.
In this dilemma, China's neutrality just gave the two countries a way out. For Pakistan, China's understanding allows it not to worry about "fighting alone"; for Afghanistan, China's respect allows it not to worry about the pressure of public opinion of "sovereignty damage." Both countries know that continuing conflict will only lead to both losses and dialogue is the only way out.
Qatar's "dual track trust" password
Ba'a chose to negotiate in Doha, Qatar, and not Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries with the same intention of mediation, behind the recognition of the "neutral credibility" of Qatar. Turkey has close ties with the Afghan Taliban, not only first recognized some of its provisional government institutions, but also occupied a dominant position in the reconstruction of the airport in Kabul, Pakistan has always remained vigilant, if led by Turkey, Pakistan would not be willing to participate.
Saudi Arabia has decades of alliance with Pakistan. The two sides have had deep cooperation in military training, religious exchanges and other fields. The Afghan interim government has always believed that Saudi Arabia is "partial to Pakistan" and naturally will not accept its mediation. Qatar's unique advantage lies in its "dual-track connections" and maintaining a relationship of trust with both Pakistan and Afghanistan at the same distance.
In 2020, peace talks between the United States and the Taliban were held in Doha. The Taliban even established a political office there, with high-level representatives stationed there all year round. The foundation for cooperation between the two sides is solid. With Pakistan, Qatar Energy Company has signed a long-term natural gas supply agreement with the National Petroleum Company of Pakistan, supplying 1.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas to Pakistan every year, accounting for 12% of Pakistan's total natural gas imports, and has close economic ties.
More importantly, Qatar has solid mediation experience. In early 2025, it successfully facilitated a 42-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, avoiding an escalation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Qatar hosted humanitarian channel negotiations between the two sides on many occasions and also assisted in the exchange of prisoners of war. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres has publicly stated that Qatar's "non-camp" image has unique value in regional conflict mediation and can minimize the vigilance of all parties.
Unopenable hard bones and external interference
Just because the negotiation can be held smoothly does not mean that the problem can be solved smoothly. This negotiation was finalized when the 48-hour temporary ceasefire agreement between the two sides was about to expire. This detail reveals that both sides still have concerns, and no one wants to let go first. The core contradiction between Pakistan and Afghanistan has already gone beyond a single attack, involving multiple deep-seated issues such as anti-terrorism, borders and ethnic groups.
Pakistan's core claim is the Taliban "true knife" to clear the TTP, but the Afghan Taliban and the TTP have deep ideological roots, both adhere to extreme conservative Islamism, and some militants even have relatives.
If Afghanistan forcibly carries out the crackdown, it is likely to trigger internal divisions-there is already a disagreement between "hardliners" and "pragmatic parties" within the Afghan Taliban, and the cleanup operation is likely to be regarded by the hardliners as a "betrayal of faith" and exacerbating internal conflicts.
Afghanistan’s core claim is that Pakistan acknowledges the existence of a controversial “Duland Line,” a border defined by British colonists in the 19th century that divides the traditional settlements of the Pushto tribes into two, and Afghanistan has never recognized their legitimacy.
Pakistan has long regarded the "Duran Line" as its legal national boundary, and has deployed heavy troops and barbed wire fences along the border. There have been dozens of conflicts between the two sides over border issues. The Pakistani side made it clear that "the Duran Line is an issue of national sovereignty that cannot be discussed", which is undoubtedly a hard bone in the negotiations.
More troubling is the interference of external forces.In India, which just reached an agreement with the Taliban in early October, in addition to food aid, plans to set up an industrial park in Kabul, obviously wanting to borrow from the Arab side to engage Pakistan.
Now that Pakistan and Afghanistan want peace talks, India may not want to see the two sides shake hands and make peace. It is reported that Indian intelligence agencies have strengthened ties with anti-Taliban forces in northern Afghanistan and do not rule out undermining the negotiations by secretly supporting militants and delaying aid.
Source of information:
Xinhuanet: "Pakistan-Afghanistan border conflict escalates, China calls for resolving differences through dialogue"
http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2025-10/17/c_1126642587.htmOfficial website of the Embassy of China in Afghanistan: "Ambassador Wang Yu meets with Deputy Foreign Minister of the Interim Government of Afghanistan Wardak"
http://af.china-embassy.gov.cn/chn/xwdt/202510/t20251016_11266432.htmQatar TV: Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to hold talks in Doha to seek a border solution
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/17/pakistan-afghanistan-agree-to-doha-talks-amid-border-tensionsPakistan's "Dawn": "The security situation in Gwadar Port raises concerns that the evacuation of Chinese enterprises will affect the progress of the project"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1821765