In 2025, the Russian-Ukrainian war has been fought for three years, the war has burned from the east to the global diplomatic table; you can look at the situation, many countries that seem to be marginalized, quietly sit on the "international table", have the right to speak, have codes, and even can control some rules.
North Korea sent several batches of ammunition and immediately "became a regular status"; Pakistan felt more and more presence in regional conflicts; Saudi Arabia and Iran also found the right opportunity to pull back the game. But Russia, which is obviously one of the protagonists in the game, has always been stuck in diplomacy, neither up nor down, like a guest who is invited to the door but has no chair to sit on. What the hell is going on?
Who is the “cost” on the menu?
This conflict began in February 2022. Ukraine is the direct battlefield. In fact, the situation has long been beyond its control; In the early days of the war, the West overwhelmingly supported Ukraine, and weapons and funds continued to be sent, but these aids did not really change the situation of the war.
What Ukraine got was not the latest equipment, but the clearance of its inventory. Three years later, the front line is still deadlocked. Ukraine's economy has shrunk severely, its social structure has been severely damaged, and its population loss is difficult to recover.
Looking at the EU, originally wanted to play the role of "conjugator" in geopolitics, the result was dragged into a high-cost energy and inflation crisis.The North Stream pipeline was blown up, natural gas prices jumped, Europe had to turn to the United States to purchase liquefied natural gas, the price is high not to mention, and also heavily relied on American energy.
The EU's sanctions on Russia are getting stronger year by year, but the backlash is becoming more and more obvious. Some internal countries have begun to resume importing energy from Russia. Strategic autonomy has become a slogan, but the economic cost is real money. Once the situation becomes tense, European unity appears to be shaky.
India originally wanted to keep a distance in this conflict, not wanting to choose a clear side, but soon tasted the cost of the wall. The U.S. technology export restrictions to India, tariffs do not decrease backwards, and military cooperation has become no longer transparent.
Traditional cooperation between Indo-Russia and the United States has been stared to death, and trust between Indo-America has not really been established. As an emerging power, India had an opportunity to participate in shaping a new pattern, but its role in this conflict has become increasingly embarrassing.
The common point of these countries is not that they have no way to go to the table, but that they eventually become arranged positions.Their strategic ambiguity, dependence on foreign aid, lack of leadership, make them passively accept the arrangement of the situation, destined to only remain in the "menu" position.
Who is already at the table and can still order?
Interestingly, some countries have found new opportunities because of this conflict; Saudi Arabia is a typical example. It has not directly interfered with the conflict in Ukraine, but has firmly seized the energy voice through its oil strategy. At a time when international oil prices were falling, Saudi Arabia chose to join forces with Russia to control output under the OPEC+ framework and reject U.S. demands for an increase in output.
While maintaining military cooperation with the United States, while strengthening economic exchanges with China, it can also maintain flexibility in energy cooperation among the Russian camp. Although Pakistan has long been in the shadow of regional conflicts, it has become increasingly active in Middle East affairs and India-Pakistan relations in recent years.
It has not only received economic support from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, but has also gradually become a key link in regional stability in military cooperation and counter-terrorism affairs. Pakistan's stance is clear: it will not take sides randomly, but it will not be marginalized and exchange practical actions for the right to speak.
North Korea has previously been labeled as "isolated country", but since the beginning of providing military supplies to Russia, the attitude has become unprecedentedly positive.It is not highly positioned in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but it is very practical to provide ammunition, show support, in exchange for Russian feedback, and also gained its place on the international stage.
These countries are able to sit at the table not because of how strong they are, but because they have identified their own values. They either have energy, geographical location, or political chips, and in short, they can be "inseparable" for others. This is the core logic of current international politics: whoever can provide unique value will have a say.
Why is Russia still wandering outside?
Russia is a big country with strong nuclear weapons, resources and military strength, but its problem is that the situation has developed to this day, and the cards in its hand are not indispensable. After three years of war, the Russian army's advance was limited. Although the eastern Ukraine area was under control, there was no obvious breakthrough in the war situation.
The ceasefire condition proposed by Russia is that the Ukrainian troops withdraw their troops from the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, but Ukraine refuses to accept it. The peace talks have always been stuck at their respective bottom lines, and neither party is willing to let go first.
The U.S. continues to maintain aid to Ukraine, and European countries, despite differences, tend to support Ukraine and anti-Russian sentiment in the West has not fundamentally changed. Russia has accelerated its "looking east" strategy and strengthened its economic and trade ties with China and Southeast Asian countries, but it is not easy to replace the Western market.
Although energy exports to China have increased, this does not completely offset the structural problems brought about by Western sanctions; it had hoped to its geological goals through rapid military action, forcing the West to accept the status quo, and the result was in a lasting war.
At the UN level, it is also increasingly difficult for Russia to gain broad support; It can provide resources, but it lacks institutional cooperation platforms; It can export security, but it does not have soft power.
The distance between the table and the menu is not just about strength.
Many people think that as long as a country is strong and has more resources, it can dominate international affairs.But the reality is that the international table is about “adaptability” and “alternativity”.Saudi oil, North Korea’s ammunition, and Pakistan’s geography are resources that others can’t replace in a short time.
In order for Russia to really sit at the table, it must first solve the problem of its failure to results in war and its failure to find breakthroughs in diplomacy.It needs to redefine its role internationally, not by confrontation but by the value of providing stability and cooperation.
From 2022 to 2025, the Russia-Ukraine War rewritten the map of Eastern Europe and reshaped the global diplomatic landscape; Russia's future will not automatically change its status just because the war continues. International affairs have never been a place to be reasonable. It is about value, location, and whether you can make others inseparable from you.
The position on the table, not by screaming, is based on strength and wisdom.Now this chair is empty, whether or not to sit down, see how Russia will go next.
Source of information:
Middle East Eye, Al Jazeera
Reports of Saudi Arabia and Iran's diplomatic strategy and energy game in the context of the conflict in Russia and Ukraine.
The Times of India, New Delhi TV (NDTV)
It involves India's diplomatic position in the Russia-Ukraine war, India-US relations, arms purchases from Russia and other issues.