On October 17, the U.S. Treasury Secretary took the initiative to conduct a video call with China, Besent revealed key information that the two sides will soon hold a new round of economic and trade consultations in Malaysia.
As an important country in Southeast Asia, Malaysia is neither a traditional ally of the United States, nor is it completely leaning towards China. It provides a relatively neutral negotiation environment.
Bescent said directly on the phone that "things have been downgraded", which was quite straightforward.
In diplomatic occasions, officials often use vague diplomatic statements, which are not uncommon for direct statements such as those of Bezent.
If you calculate carefully, in the past six months, China and the United States have held four rounds of talks in Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Switzerland.
After each negotiation, the relationship will relax for a while.
What happened at the end of September made many people realize that the game between China and the United States is no longer limited to the traditional trade field.
The U.S. has tightened restrictions on Chinese companies using U.S. technology, a trick that can be said to hit Chinese technology enterprises on seven centimeters.
China's response came quickly-the rare earth card was put back on the negotiating table.
China holds most of the world's rare earth resources and processing capacity, which makes the United States appear quite passive on this issue.
When China began to make a fuss about the rare earth issue, Washington immediately felt the pressure.
Trump’s reaction is typical, directly threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
This number sounds scary, but when you think about it, If implemented, not only Chinese companies will suffer, but American consumers and will suffer huge losses as well.
It is this reality of "killing a thousand enemies and self-harming eight hundred" that both sides have begun to rethink their strategies.
On October 17, Trump's statement at the White House was quite thought-provoking.
He said, “I think we’re doing well with China,” in a sharp contrast to his earlier harsh statements.
Political observers know that Trump's words often reflect his real thoughts at the moment, rather than carefully packaged diplomatic rhetoric.
Looking back over the past six months, Trump has repeatedly postponed the threat of imposing a 145% tariff on China.
This repeated delay in itself explains the problem— If there is a real need to take these measures, why delay them? the answer is simple, because the actual cost of implementing these measures may be much higher than expected.
Trump also said " Thinking we will reach a deal that will benefit both sides ",This sentence reveals a lot of information.
In the businessman-born Trump’s view, any conflict should ultimately be resolved in some form of “deal” rather than endless confrontation.
The date of November 10 was marked in Washington as the latest deadline for the implementation of new tariffs on China.
Less than a month from this date, the two sides chose to release a mitigation signal at this time, and the timing can be accurate.
The upcoming APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October provided another important diplomatic platform for the two sides.
Contact on multilateral occasions is often less stressful than bilateral talks, and it is easier to leave room for manoeuvre for both sides.
As a host country, South Korea is both an important ally of the United States andins close economic and trade relations with China, which makes it an ideal platform for Sino-US dialogue.
From the arrangements on the diplomatic agenda can be seen that both sides are preparing for possible further contacts.
The meeting in Malaysia may be just the beginning, and the real headline may take place during the APEC summit.
In this conversation, China described the exchanges between the two sides as “honest, in-depth, and constructive,” which is usually understood in diplomatic language as a positive signal.
More importantly, both sides are beginning to realize that a full-scale economic and trade conflict is not good for either side.
The U.S. economy is currently facing inflationary pressure, and if tariffs are significantly increased on Chinese goods, the cost will ultimately be borne by U.S. consumers.
China's economy also needs a stable foreign trade environment to support growth. Losing the important market of the United States is also an unbearable loss for China companies.
This economic interdependence constitutes the fundamental driving force for both sides to seek detente.
Regardless of the political differences, consideration of economic interests often plays a decisive role.
The current detente is likely to be just a fragment in a long game.
The structural competition between China and the United States will not disappear just because of a few rounds of negotiations, and the differences between the two sides in the fields of science and technology, military affairs, geopolitics and other fields are still profound.
From this perspective, the current détente is more like a strategic choice for both sides to accumulate strength for the next round of games.
Getting time through negotiations and space through compromise could be a realistic option that both sides are currently accepting.
China needs time to develop its technological capabilities and reduce its reliance on U.S. technology, and the U.S. needs time to build a better competitive strategy with China.
Under such circumstances, it is in the interests of both sides to maintain a certain degree of cooperation and communication.
Source of information:
U.S. Treasury Department Official Statement - About Video Calls With Chief of the Treasury Besson and Statements "Things Have Been Declassified"
White House press conference record - President Trump's public speech on October 17 about China-U.S. relations "go well"
· Press conference of the Ministry of Commerce of China-China's official statement on "frank, in-depth and constructive" exchanges between the two sides
U.S. Trade Representative’s Office Announces Strengthening Policy Documents on U.S. Technology Restrictions for Chinese Companies at the End of September
China's Foreign Ministry's Routine Press Conference - Official Statements on Adjustment of Rare-Earth Policy and Response to U.S. Technology Restrictions
APEC South Korea Summit Organizing Committee – Official agenda and list of participating countries for South Korea’s APEC meeting at the end of October
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency announces official timetable for new tariffs on November 10