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On October 15, Trump proudly announced to reporters at the White House that Prime Minister Modi had assured him in a call earlier that day, India to stop buying oil from Russia。
“It’s very unhappy for me to buy Russian oil, and Prime Minister Modi assured me today that India won’t buy Russian oil anymore, which is a very important step.”
In fact, The news was unexpected but reasonable。
For Trump, fighting for Modi’s promise is a very important diplomatic effort to cut off Russia’s energy revenue and push to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
He said that once the war ended, Countries are expected to resume normal trade relations。
However, the Indian response is more ambiguous.
Following Trump's announcement, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randir Jaiswar responded the next day, He didn't know that the two leaders had any dialogue on the 15th.
He also emphasized, India is an important importer of oil and gasIn the energy sector, the interests of Indian consumers will be given priority, and the import policy will also be entirely guided by national interests.
Jaiswal pointed out that ensuring that India's energy prices are stable and supply is guaranteed has always been New Delhi's two major goals in energy management.
Indeed, In recent years, the energy cooperation between India and Russia has become closer and closer.
Data shows that Russia has become India's main oil supplier, accounting for about 35% of India's total supply, which was less than 1% before the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Since the Western sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022, India has begun massive purchases of low-cost Russian crude oil, effectively reducing refining costs.
As the world’s third largest oil importer and consumer, More than 35% of India’s oil imports are dependent on Russia.Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this proportion was less than 2%.
Trump, of course, was dissatisfied with this.So he continued to increase pressure on India, trying to force India to stop buying Russian energy.
In August, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods on the basis of India's imports of Russian oil. Bringing its total tariff level to 50%.
Such high tariffs have caused a huge shock to the Indian economy.
The data showed that India’s U.S. exports fell by 20.7 percent in September, the first full month after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on India.
India was in difficulty.
Listening to the U.S. and stopping buying Russian oil would result in India spending around $80-10 billion more on energy imports each year and put pressure on current account balances and inflation control.
Faced with the possibility that India could stop importing Russian oil, Russia has in fact been arranged for a long time.
The Russian ambassador to India publicly stated that Russia-India energy cooperation is completely reasonable and legal, and hinted that such cooperation is a real benefit to India.
Meanwhile, Russia has significantly increased oil discounts for India. From $1 per barrel in July and August to $2 to $2.5 per barrel.
In addition to, Russia is accelerating the development of the Eastern market.。Not long ago, China, Russia and Mongolia jointly finalized a memorandum of cooperation on the "Power Siberian 2" natural gas pipeline.
Later, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novakin arrived in Beijing and made it clear that Russia would make every effort to supply natural gas to China before the end of the year.
Unlike India's wavering attitude, even in the face of pressure from the United States, China has adhered to its consistent position and clearly stated that energy cooperation between China and Russia is normal and legal. Not accepting any external interference。
China’s bottom line comes from its strong economic and energy autonomy.。 Through the dual guarantee of land pipelines and shipping, China has effectively avoided the risk of US sanctions.
Today, China-Russia energy cooperation continues to grow, not only in oil and gas, but also in coal, electricity, renewable energy and other areas.
But Putin did not allow China’s support to pay in vain.
At the “Russian Energy Week” forum on October 16, Putin publicly announced: Russia will establish a long-term and stable energy supply mechanism for the "friendly countries" and welcome each other's participation in Russian oil and gas projects.
As soon as this came out, Russia made a new move.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak held closed-door talks with the Chinese energy delegation on the same day, according to the internal briefing of the Russian Ministry of Energy, China purchased the Ural crude oil in October, Even less than $1 per barrel previously purchased by India。
More rarely, Russia not only packed shipping charges, but also offered a 90-day billing period, a policy that had previously been opened only to India.
Today, China has also been facilitated by this, and the meaning behind it is clear.
At the same time, Litasco, a company owned by Lukas Oil, has also issued friendly signals, saying it is willing to involve China in the expansion of the Vancouver oil field.
It should be known that the oil field has reserves of about 500 million tons, India and Vietnam have repeatedly failed tenders, and now Russia has directly given China "priority."
This series of Russian actions not only expressed gratitude to China, but also expressed the sincerity of China-Russia’s long-term and stable cooperation.
Of course, the wave is far from over.
If India obtains tariff reductions during the US-India trade negotiations at the end of the year, it will not rule out the possibility of resuming purchases of Russian oil. By that time, it is hard to say whether Putin will still be willing to give discounts.
reference
Trump says Modi promises to stop buying Russian oil, India responds 2025-10-16 15:47
Trump says China stops buying Russian oil, China’s response 2025-10-16 20:00
Putin: The Three Great Challenges in the Global Energy Sector 2025-10-17 09:16
4. "The United States informs Japan: Japan is expected to stop importing Russian energy" 2025-10-16 16:23 | Source: Global Times