Preliminary
The recent Russian-Ukrainian war has become a big one, and the US Trump and Russian Putin have agreed to meet in the Hungarian capital Budapest within two weeks to discuss specifically how to end the long-running war in Ukraine.
But a meeting has just been scheduled here, and Trump over there will first meet Ukrainian President Zelensky, and may also send Ukraine a cruise missile called "Tomahawk". This missile can hit 2,500 kilometers, even Moscow, the capital of Russia, is within range.
Putin has long spoken, the missiles will hurt Russian-US relations, and also delay the ceasefire.
There are a lot of doors behind this.
Talk about a ceasefire in two weeks?Trump’s “term” hasn’t been counted before
Let's first talk about this US-Russia meeting. Trump announced it directly on social media after a phone conversation with Putin, saying that he would "determine whether this shameful war in Ukraine can be ended."
It sounds real, but older people often say,"To judge a person, we must look at his past events." Few Trump's past "two-week deadline" have been met.
Let's just say in August this year. On the 15th, he said in an economic speech that he would impose tariffs on imported semiconductors "next week to the next week", saying that it was to protect the United States 'own factories.
And the result? Almost a month has passed, and the U.S. department in charge of this matter has not even issued a serious document. How much tariffs will be increased and which semiconductors will be affected are all muddled accounts.
The owners of semiconductor can only wait, and the supply and price can not be arranged.
On August 22, he told reporters that in two weeks to evaluate the progress of the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, and even to say "not to talk about it, to impose large sanctions on Russia, increase tariffs."
However, these threats have not yet come true, and things have been delayed.
What makes people even more uneasy is that although Putin said that he was "willing to negotiate a ceasefire directly", the battle in his hands did not stop at all.
The Russian army is still using drones to bomb Ukraine every day, not only the trenches and ammunition depots on the eastern front line, but also cities where ordinary people live, such as Kharkiv and Odessa. Power plants and water plants have been blown to pieces, and many places have no electricity or water. The specific dates of the meeting and what details to discuss have not been clearly explained to the outside world. Whether the negotiation can be completed is really a question mark.
How powerful is the Tomahawk missile that Zelensky wants?
Trump and Putin are scheduled to meet in the White House on the 17th.
During this meeting, two things were the key points: one was to strengthen the air defense system for Ukraine, and the other was the "Tomahawk" cruise missile that Zelensky had requested many times. This missile is the "big killer" that Russia, Ukraine and the United States are currently watching closely.
Some may not have heard of the "Tax" missile, but it is the most widely used long-range "precision bomb" in the hands of the US military.
It relies on satellite positioning, can also follow the terrain, such as encountering mountains, forests, can automatically adjust the route, enemy radar is difficult to find, even if it is found, try to stop it hard.
What is even more frightening is its range, which can hit as far as 2500 kilometers, more than five times farther than all current missiles in Ukraine.
Previously, Ukraine could only fight Russian troops near the border, and if it got the missile, it could hit directly in the heart of Russia: military bases in Russia, arsenal, power stations, and even important facilities in the capital, Moscow, were within range.
The United States has a "War Research Institute" that specializes in studying war. It has calculated that with a range of 2500 kilometers, at least 1945 key military facilities in Russia can be included in the strike range. Mark Cansian, a former senior Pentagon official, also revealed that the United States now has about 4150 Tomahawk missiles in its hands. With this many missiles, it is enough to fight several large-scale missile wars.
The outside world guessed that if Ukraine really got this missile, the first to hit must be the Russian air base on the front, those bases are stopped Su-34, Su-35, these fighters, it is the main force of the Russian army to bomb Ukraine, the base was bombed, the Russian army wanted air strikes no problem.
Putin, in fact, is afraid of missiles? the air defense system is not enough.
In the face of the threat of "Tax" missiles, Putin's attitude is clear: even if the United States really gives the missiles to Ukraine, it will not change the general direction of the war, but will ruin Russian-U.S. relations and make a ceasefire more difficult for Ukraine.
In fact, as early as this month, when Putin held a security conference, he said that if Russia's mainland was blown up by the "war ax" missile, it would surely "take the air defense system full" counterattack, and also said that more S-400 air defense missiles should be deployed to the border.
But Russia's air defense system, now also a little "force not to heart".S-400 is Russia's most advanced air defense missile, can intercept targets within 3500 km, look pretty good, but recently there are news that this thing is too slow, the production capacity can not follow.The Russian military can not, only to overturn the old S-300V to compute, the old missile interception capacity is not much less than the S-400, in the face of the "Tax" such as missiles can circumnavigate, the interception effect is more discounted.
So Putin agreed to meet with Trump, and on the surface he wanted to talk about a ceasefire, but in fact he was more pressing to "touch the bottom of America."
He wanted to use the time of the meeting, hurry to solidify the border air defense network, to layer up the protection of important domestic facilities, if the missiles really came, at least can stop a few more, do not get busy at the time.
conclusion
Whether Trump wants to “end the shameful war,” or Putin wants to “struggle for air defense time,” at least the two sides are willing to sit down and talk, that’s a good thing.
However, Trump's past "unreliable deadline" and the dispute over Tomahawk missiles have not yet been resolved. No one dares to guarantee whether a real result can be talked about.
The most hopeful is that both sides will be able to hurry a ceasefire, whether it is to send missiles or negotiate, ultimately suffering or ordinary people.