No one expected that a fine of 4.46 million yuan turned out to be a lever to incite the Sino-US trade situation to turn sharply. On October 14th, China officially showed countermeasures against the practice of imposing additional fees on US ports, and the first American ship "Manukai" was directly fined.
Just 24 hours later, the situation took a sharp turn, and US President Trump's attitude turned 180 degrees. Not only did he change his mouth to "no tax increase", but the Treasury Secretary personally dialed the phone and was in a hurry to communicate.
The speed at which he changed his face was faster than flipping a book. But the question is, why did the United States, which was originally tough to the end, suddenly bow its head? Behind this, was it an accidental policy counterattack, or was China's precise layout well prepared?
China's 4.46 million fine: hit the key quietly
In April this year, the United States launched a 301 investigation on the basis of "China's maritime injustice", and in September, the US officially announced that from October 14th, China-owned ships will be charged a port fee of $50 per net tonne, which is almost equivalent to public provocation.
China's response didn't have much foreshadowing or much fanfare. It just quietly announced that from October 14th, all ships with "American elements" will pay a special port fee of 400 yuan per net ton, which can rise to 1120 yuan if necessary. In other words, China not only immediately countered it, but also clearly prepared its backup.
The first "check" was the "Manukee" from Mason Shipping. The ship just arrived on the shore of Ningbo Port on October 13, the next day the new regulation came into force, was directly fined 446 million yuan, the fine amount although not the price of the sky, but was hit by the US supply chain.
In terms of industry algorithms, U.S. freight ships of 200,000 tons, such as Manukai, run five times a year in Chinese ports and can cost as much as 40 million yuan in port charges alone, while China has also cleverly set a rule, as long as the ship is built in China, can be exempted from the new rule.
The effect is immediately visible. Several European and American shipping giants quickly began to "evite the wind", Danish Maersk, German Herbert have changed the port of Busan, US domestic airlines also engaged in the "director resignation" operation, trying to bypass the assertion of "American elements".
The Chinese side did not make a big move, nor shouted a slogan, but only did according to the rules, the rules were clear, the landing point was accurate, but in silence disrupted the opponent's rhythm.
The attitude of the United States changed suddenly: it took only one day to be tough, and the phone calls came immediately after another
On the second day after the ticket incident was exposed, US President Trump suddenly changed his mouth. On October 17th, he publicly stated that "it is unrealistic to impose a 100% tariff on China", and his attitude obviously switched from Wolf Warriors mode to consultation mode. Before the market could react, on October 18, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent and Trade Representative Greer took the initiative to initiate a video call with China, expressing their hope to promote follow-up consultations.
This wave of operation, which appears to be “from rational considerations”, is actually pushed to the negotiating table by reality.
The first is the economic injury. On October 10, Trump had just released the news that he would impose a 100% tariff increase. U.S. stocks immediately fell. When investors saw that the situation was not good, they withdrew.
In addition to the Chinese wave of port costs counterattack, it is equivalent to raising the threshold for U.S. goods to enter China, directly impacting the nerves of U.S. export companies.
Especially in the agricultural sector, the most injured. The data from the U.S. Farm Bureau is there-this year's soybean season, export orders to China are zero, a situation that has not occurred since 1998.
Farmers have no orders, the factory has stopped production, and even threatened to maintain Trump's "seller". to know, the big "election" in 2024 has just passed, Trump has just returned to the pot, and now must stabilize the basic disc.
In addition to agriculture, there are also hidden concerns in the field of science and technology.On October 8, China upgraded rare earth export controls, restricted the export of some key metals, and many U.S. technology companies such as Qualcomm and Intel were unable to sit down, jointly putting pressure on the government to demand that China "leave a little space".
Multiple pressures combined, and China's fine became the "last straw" that overwhelmed the US strategy. Trump's turn in attitude was neither an accident nor a concession, but he was beaten to nothing by reality.
Engage in the Trend: The Game Logic under the Comparison of Sino-US Strategies
From the viewpoint of this confrontation, China's strategy is not passive response, but sufficient preparation and steady pace.The choice to synchronize with the U.S. port fee comes into effect, sooner or later, neither to give the other party excuses, nor to let the situation out of control, the rules are set to drop water.
More importantly, China has also reserved room for upgrades and made it clear that port fees can be raised to 1120 yuan in the future. This is equivalent to giving its opponents a signal: If you move again, I still have cards.
On the other hand, the United States is still following the old routine: first make harsh words to force the other party to make concessions, and then end the game depending on the situation. But this time, the routine failed. Trump's "threat of tax increase" not only failed to gain China's concessions, but also forced China to take a more targeted countermeasures, and ultimately he could not hold on first.
This game between China and the United States, in the end, is not whose voice is big and who dominates, but whose actions are more logical and more patient.This time, China did not shout a slogan, did not engage in a high-tone counterattack, but step by step led the situation in a favorable direction, reflecting a "talk and combine" wisdom.
According to statistics, U.S. soybean exports to China have shrunk by more than 40 percent this year, and more than 70 percent of rare-earth products are dependent on Chinese supplies.
This Chinese counter-reaction, in fact, is a typical case of "reacting to the rules", not playing tricks, not engaging in retaliation, relying on the fine design in the rules and the tactical calm and silence.
And the US's anxiety also illustrates a reality: in today's highly interconnected global supply chains, trying to rely on tariffs and pressure others to do so has long been impossible.
In the future, the interaction between China and the United States will probably continue along this rhythm of "hitting, talking, fighting", but one point may be clear: whoever is more rational will have the more initiative.
China is not in a hurry to show its cards, nor does it close the door to negotiations. This kind of strategic patience is precisely the scarcest resource in the current international situation.
For the U.S. side, if it is still attached to the old script of "extreme pressure", then there may still be more 24 hours of "changing talks", and on the international stage, the one who really works is never hard, but the one who can see the situation and the momentum.
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"China's countermeasures are effective: the first American ship was fined 4.46 million yuan, and the shipping company tried every means to avoid losses"--2025 - 10 -17 22:02·Observer Network