In mid-October, the Sino-U.S. relationship is in the heaviest phase, one in the chip, one in the card energy, both of you come and go, step by step.

At this time, Russian President Putin suddenly moved his hand, signed a paper of military agreement with Cuba, while speaking urgently with the presidents of the three Central Asian countries.

But why is Putin so eager to act? What kind of calculation is hidden behind this?

Militarily "Looking West": The Cuba Agreement is not an act, it is Putin's "back-hand"

On October 15, the Kremlin issued a little news: Russia and Cuba signed a new military agreement.This is not an ordinary memorandum of cooperation, but involves military training, equipment support and even a possible strategic deployment.

Some media think of the "Cuban Missile Crisis" during the Cold War, and there are rumors that Cuba may allow Russia's presence in the country, but the Cuban side has denied.

But whether or not the troops are stationed is actually not important. The key is that the agreement itself is enough to make the United States unable to sit still. Cuba is the "backyard" at the border gate of the United States. Putin reached out his hand there silently. This move was like suddenly showing his trump card while playing cards, which made the West, which was originally staring at the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, suddenly distracted.

From the perspective of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Putin's move can be regarded as a typical approach of "distant friendship and close attack". When there was no decisive outcome in the frontal battlefield, he chose to create restraint in other directions, especially in the most sensitive areas of the United States.

Reaching military cooperation with Cuba is a signal that he is trying to open up a "second front." This will not only distract the attention of the United States and NATO, but also give Russia several "teammates" on the international stage.

The more realistic thing is that China is currently under tremendous pressure in China-US competition, and Putin understands that China cannot provide too much direct assistance in the military level in the face of Russia. He cannot sit and wait for help, he can only find a way for himself.

In recent years, military exchanges between Russia and Latin American countries have indeed increased. According to media data, since 2020, the number of joint military exercises between Russia and Venezuela, Nicaragua and other countries has increased significantly, and arms transactions have also increased. Although the military strength of these countries cannot influence the war situation, their geographical location and political attitude are enough to become strategic pawns in Putin's hands.

Economically "solid backhouses": Central Asia three calls, Putin stable is the heart is not oil

On the same day, in addition to dealing with Cuba, Putin made three phone calls to the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, respectively.The outside world initially thought it was a routine communication, but looked closely at the content, and found it was not a simple cold, but an economic "fire rescue".

The core of these phone calls is energy cooperation, cross-border settlement system and trade stability, especially how to bypass Western sanctions and continue to sell Russian natural gas and oil.

Central Asia for Russia is not only the traditional sphere of influence, but also the most powerful "stabilizer" now. The Russian-Ukrainian war has hit now, the wave of Western sanctions, Russia's foreign trade system has been forced to closer and closer. In the past can still rely on China, but with China's own economic structure adjustment, the procurement of Russian oil and gas began to become cautious, Putin realized that it is not possible to put all the eggs in a basket.

Although Central Asian countries are small in size, they have a special geographical location and are key hubs connecting Russia, South Asia and China. Putin must firmly hold this line so as not to be completely marginalized in the Sino-US game.

What's more, Central Asia has been quietly "de-Russianized" in recent years, and many countries have begun to introduce the influence of Turkey, Iran and even Europe and the United States. Putin knows in his heart that if he doesn't take action to stabilize these "brothers", he may not even have the qualifications to speak in the future.

From an economic point of view, Putin's goal of this call is quite clear: first, to keep Russia's natural gas export channel in Central Asia; Second, it is necessary to promote local currency settlement and bypass the US dollar system; Third, it is necessary to build an economic circle of "non-Western markets", at least not to be isolated at one's own doorstep.

Internal diplomatic trouble: India does not cooperate, Syria has trouble, Putin has not many cards

Just as Putin was busy communicating with the outside world, another unexpected trouble came from India. U.S. President Trump revealed in a speech in early October that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised to gradually reduce crude oil imports from Russia in the next few months. This sentence may sound understatement, but it is a blow to Putin.

India is one of Russia's most important energy buyers, especially after comprehensive Western sanctions, India's purchases have become a "life-saving pipeline" for Russian oil exports. If India does this, Russia's energy exports will face an even greater cliff-like decline.

It¡¯s not just a question of selling oil, it¡¯s also a symbol of how Russia can stay decent in the global game.Once even the most important buyers start to withdraw, other countries will only see more clearly: Russia is ¡°blowing out.¡±

At the same time, there is a more intractable problem from the Middle East. Syria's interim government leader Shara recently publicly demanded that Bashar al-Assad be extradited for investigation.

Syria has always been Russia's "bridge head" in the Middle East, and Port of Tartus is Russia's only Mediterranean military base.

If the emerging Syrian regime could be blamed for refusing extradition in order to protect the face; but if Assad was really handed out, then Russia¡¯s credit in the Middle East would collapse completely.

On the surface, these two matters may appear to be regional issues, but in fact they are the most fatal weaknesses in Putin's global layout. On the one hand, he has to maintain the image of Russia's "big brother", and on the other hand, he has to face the disobedience of more and more "teammates". Simply put, Putin is now putting out the fire and paving the road, for fear that he will be completely surrounded if it burns.

For China, all this can be seen clearly. At the moment of the Sino-US game, China is more aware of where its focus lies. China understands Russia's difficulties and knows that every step Putin takes is a survival, not a provocation. But it is precisely because it can see clearly that China will not easily help at this time. Instead, it will choose to stabilize its own pace and take the initiative in its own hands.

Putin is in a hurry to sign agreements, make phone calls and respond to the situation, not because of how strong he is, but because he has no choice. He is fighting for the last space, while China is waiting for the most suitable time.

The future of Russia will not turn on this, it does not depend on itself, but how long this game will last, who first showed fatigue.

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Putin approves military cooperation agreement between Russia and Cuba ¨C 2025-10-16 07:14