Text | The night is slightly cold
Edited | Slightly cold night
In mid-October, just 48 hours, the geological interaction of the four countries suddenly warmed, on October 14, China just blackened the five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanoi Ocean, on November 16, it was exposed that Hanoi was going to sell anti-ship missiles to the Philippines, closely following the Korean media and adding the missile to the South China Sea.
It has long been seen that this is the gambling revenge after the sanctions on Hong Kong, and the reality is that the United States' calculation of the Philippines is intertwined and Hong Kong itself is in trouble riding the tiger.
First, let the matter be clear, the October 14 sanctions are not really China's search for five U.S. subsidiaries of Hangzhou, which have long helped the U.S. steal commercial data from Chinese shipbuilding enterprises.
Small to large to core ship design channels, all directly to the United States to help suppress China's maritime industry to know that China's shipbuilding industry now has an increasingly high global share, the operation of Hanoi is equal to the calculation of financial sanctions.
But who would have thought that Hanwha would release the news of selling bombs to the Philippines just two days later. The CTM-ASBM anti-ship missile to be sold has a range of 160 kilometers and has to be packaged and sold with the launch system.
At first glance, Hanwha rushed to medical treatment after being pinched out of the Chinese market. In 2024, its revenue in China will account for 18% of the world's revenue, and 30% of the parts in the global supply chain will depend on Chinese sanctions. Nearly one-fifth of its revenue has been lost. Before it voluntarily withdrew from the Shandong joint venture, it has not found an alternative way to make money. Selling missiles is like a life-saving straw.
But if you think about it, you will find that Han Hua has made a good move in choosing the Philippines. The South China Sea disputed area near Palawan Island in the western Philippines is a priority defense area in the Philippines 'national defense white paper.
The 160-kilometer range that can cover this area of the ocean, the marine target is to put the sharp knife at the gate of the South China Sea.
And South Korea was the "arms old acquaintance": before the Philippines bought from South Korea FA-50 fighter jets and armored vehicles, the light military transaction was almost $ 3 billion, last year just bought anti-tank missiles, this year then talked about anti-ship missiles, and it was doubtful.
What's even more amazing is that Hanwha's pricing routine missile has a unit price of US $2 million, which is more than half cheaper than similar products in Europe and the United States. It also offers installment payment for technology transfer.
You must know that the Philippines' defense budget will only increase by 12.3% in 2025, totaling US $4.65 billion. There is not much money that can really be spent on equipment. This low-price sale + credit simply accurately captures the poor wealth of the Philippines.
But this seemingly win-win trade is actually the hole, and the most important thing is that the missiles Hanwei wants to sell are not good at all.
This CTM-ASBM also has a name called Chunwu anti-ship missile. It has not even been fully tested, let alone installed in the troops. Hanwha itself said that it will not be delivered until 2028 at the earliest. Now it is better to sell missiles. It is to sell drawings.
More importantly, the core technology relying entirely on the steering is the inertia + GPS composite model, the bullet head and the end end infrared marker look at the advanced but critical communication module launch platform technology is all given by the United States, in other words, no U.S. knock-off Hong Kong export license can not be obtained.
There is also a rocket gun system that it is said to be mobile equipment, two launch cabins can be fitted with different ammunition coupled counter-ship missiles if each car can be fitted with eight to watch the maneuverability of strong strike density is high, but the size of the rocket than the United States of the United States of the Himalayas many remote island reefs can not let the launch car pass, whether there is enough maintenance point is unknown.
The attitude of the Philippines is more interesting in the face of the hot face of the official only said to welcome the display of technology, and half of the words that want to buy did not mean to form a distinct contrast with the appearance of the company, because the Philippines counted three accounts.
The first budget account, the Philippines just bought three sets of Indian Brahmus coastal missiles, also had to work with the deployment of the U.S. medium-range land-based platform, the money in the hands has not been enough.
In 2025, the funds dedicated to equipment modernization will only be 600 million dollars converted into U.S. dollars, which is not enough to buy 100 CTM-ASBMs, let alone supporting systems.
The Philippines did not have the digestive capabilities, the missile relied on the data chain and real-time intelligence support, but the Philippines did not build even the basic target to obtain the missile guidance system.
Even if you buy it, you may not be able to hit it accurately. Moreover, Hanhua's missile has no actual combat experience, hit rate and anti-interference capabilities are all self-explanatory. The Philippines is afraid of spending money on furnishings.
The third security account: The Philippines is afraid of offending China. It is clear to buy American weapons. At least the United States has global deployment capabilities, even if it is unreliable.
But South Korea is different. South Korea has no ability to support the South China Sea accident at all. If buying Hanwha missiles provokes China in exchange for the counter-measure loss in trade and fishery is more than a few missiles.
Therefore, now the Philippines is obviously planning to maintain friendly contacts with Hanwha, while also focusing on the medium-range missiles of other countries in the United States. To put it bluntly, it is to compare goods to others to be brave but not to be the first to be the first.
The most striking thing is the United States behind it.
After the return of the Trump administration, the Indo-Pacific strategy is clearly accelerated, but the United States does not want to take the lead itself, instead encouraging the Alliance to "accuse itself that Hanwei is the US-selected arms agent."
The United States does not need to directly send weapons to the Philippines and ask Hanwha to transfer them. It not only gives the Philippines tools to confront China, but also creates pressure on China in the South China Sea, but also does not need to bear the blame for exacerbating the situation. It is simply three birds with one stone.
The attitude of the South Korean government is also very subtle. It shouts to stabilize Sino-Korean relations, but turns a blind eye to Hanwha's ammunition sales. After all, Hanwha is the facade of South Korea's military industry. It is not only responsible for the overhaul of 30% of the ships of the US Seventh Fleet, but also maintains that the radar of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers is too tightly tied to the United States to offend them.
But Hangzhou itself has pushed itself to two difficulties early on, the surface of arms profits high real risk is bigger than the civil business, 60% of Hangzhou shipbuilding parts are from China than 30% of the global supply chain reliance has been said to be exaggerated.
If China had to stop the extension of sanctions to the main production line of the shipbuilding industry, before it wanted to use new energy products to open the Chinese market to compensate for the loss of the Shandong joint venture is now broken.
What's even worse is that the arms business cycle is long. Even if the Philippines does place an order, the money will not arrive immediately and will have to go through international review. Now that Han Wha's rush to sell missiles has just been sanctioned, it has been labeled a political tool.
In the future, when doing civilian business with other countries, people will be suspected of having an American background, which will not outweigh the gain.
Some have calculated that Hanwei in China annual revenue of billions of dollars to sell missiles to the Philippines, even if the deal is the most, hundreds of millions of dollars, but also to bear the risk of being counter-repressed by China, so look at Hanwei's retaliatory sale of bombs more like the impulse on the head is not counted at all.
In the face of this complicated game, China has not followed the rhythm of Hanwei to go against the line, but instead has its own chapter.
In recent years, China has been pushing for regional integration and deepening cooperation with ASEAN countries through RCEP and along the way.
Most of the neighboring countries in the South China Sea are members of ASEAN. China's trade and investment ties with them are getting closer and closer. For example, most bananas and coconuts from the Philippines are exported to China, and Vietnam and Malaysia also rely on Chinese industrial products.
This kind of economic bond can stabilize regional peace more than a few missiles. After all, no country is willing to sacrifice its economic interests for American strategy.
Second, Huawei dared to do so by mastering some sensitive technologies, while Chinese enterprises still rely on some core parts.
The incident also mentioned a wake-up must accelerate the core technology autonomy, such as shipbuilding key parts missile guidance system only hold the lifespan in their own hands will not be caught in the neck, now China has been improving data and technical security legislation is to build a firewall for enterprises.
Finally, with good international rules, China has been calling for greater transparency in arms sales under the UN framework, and Hanoi's missiles containing U.S. technology can be declared to be reviewed in accordance with international arms control regulations.
China can push the international community to pay attention to the deal through diplomatic channels so that the risk of Hunan and the United States can not do what they want, if Hunan truly disregards the rules, China also has sufficient economic leverage such as restricting rare-earth exports and strengthening the review of Korean enterprises in China can accurately hit the soft rib of Hunan.
conclusion
In the end, the key to the situation in the South China Sea is not who has the missiles, but who can keep the peace, and Huawei wants to rely on the sale of missiles to retaliate against sanctions that may have lost the Chinese market that the Philippines has not yet earned.
If the Philippines wants to be courageous by buying weapons, it may become a pawn of the United States. If the United States wants to borrow others to spoil the situation, it will eventually lose the trust of ASEAN.
What everyone is most concerned about now is whether the Philippines will really pay out of its pocket to buy this semi-finished missile. If China increases its countermeasures, should it start from the Han-China shipbuilding business or from key resources such as rare earths? Welcome to talk about your opinions in the comment area.
Source: People's Evening News
Xinmin Evening News: "Hanwha Ocean, which submitted a letter of appointment to the United States, was sanctioned by China. What did it do?", 2025-10-16
Asia Times : Philippines eyes Korean ship-killermissiles to point at China, 2025-10-16
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