Just a few hours before Trump's phone call with Putin on October 16, the Russian army suddenly launched a ruthless attack on Ukraine and launched the largest ballistic missile salvo attack since the war began.

According to a war report released by the Ukrainian military, from the night of October 15 to the early morning of October 16, the Russian military used 320 suicide drones and dozens of long-range missiles to launch a massive air strike on Ukrainian territory targets, including a rare shooting of 26 Iskander M ballistic missiles, a new record since the opening of the war in Russia.

In this wave of attacks, the Patriot, the most reliable Western air defense system in Ukraine's hands, did not stop even a single ballistic missile.

In the battle report released by the Ukrainian army, it only mentioned the interception of 283 drones and 5 Kh59 air-launched cruise missiles, but there was no interception result of Iskander. At the same time, it was confirmed that 16 areas were hit by missiles. The "Insider" website, which has always been pro-Ukraine, reported that all iskander successfully penetrated and none were intercepted.

In fact, the "Patriot" has fallen to the point of zero interceptions, has long been the head, and not sudden collapse. Earlier this month, the British "Financial Times" revealed to the outside that Russia has quietly completed the modernization upgrade of the "Iskander M" and "Hadge" missiles, specifically aimed at the counter-interception optimization of the Ukrainian air defense system.

The newspaper clearly pointed out that these upgraded missiles will perform anti-interception manoeuvres in the final stage of flight, greatly reducing the interception rate of the Patriot air defense system. At that time, after analyzing the data released by the Ukraine Air Force, the Financial Times came to a conclusion: in August this year, the Ukrainian army could still intercept 37% of Russian ballistic missiles, but in September, this figure fell sharply to 6%.

Subsequently, a report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency also confirmed the decline in the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense systems. After analyzing data from April to June, the report pointed out that the Ukrainian army is increasingly struggling to use the Patriots to defend against Russian ballistic missiles. The core reason is that "Russia's recent tactical improvements allow missiles to change their trajectory and maneuver, no longer following the traditional fixed trajectory."

The report also specifically mentioned the attack launched by the Russian army on June 28. At that time, the Russian army fired a salvo of seven ballistic missiles, but the Ukrainian army tried its best to shoot down only one, with an interception rate of less than 15%.

In other words, from less than 15% in June, to 6% in September, and now to 0%, in just 4 months, the "Patriot" has almost completely lost its resistance in the face of Russian ballistic missiles. This decline speed is enough to show how significant the upgrade effect of the Russian army is.

From the first day of the conflict to the present, the "Iskander" M missile system, as an important weapon for the Russian military's long-range strikes, has participated in almost the entire operation. The 9M723 ballistic missile it carries can have a maximum range of about 500 kilometers. It can carry both nuclear warheads and 480 kilograms of conventional high-explosive warheads, making it extremely flexible.

In terms of combat organization, Iskander M adopts brigade-level organization. A missile brigade has three launch battalions, each battalion is equipped with four 9P78 -1 missile launchers, each launcher can carry two missiles. It is calculated that a brigade can launch up to 24 9M723 ballistic missiles at a time, and it can be reloaded within 30 minutes after launch, so it has strong sustained strike capability.

This time, the Russian army fired 26 Iskandars at one time. It is highly likely that a full-fledged brigade was used to strengthen some of the launch units. This concentrated firepower approach brought great pressure on the Ukrainian air defense system.

Of course, what really makes the "Patriots" helpless should be the anti-interception means of missile upgrades. Based on radar tracking information collected in recent months, Ukraine and Western intelligence agencies have discovered that Russian troops have added new program settings to the terminal flight of the 9M723 missile.

When these missiles fly to the terminal stage dozens of kilometers away from the target, they either dive rapidly to form a steep impact angle, or make S-shaped maneuvers in the air, completely disrupting the capture rhythm of air defense radar.

The core logic of the "Patriot" air defense system is to lock the interception point by calculating the flight path to attack the target, once the target suddenly changes trajectory, before the calculated interception point becomes an empty target, etc. When the radar re-calculates, the best interception window has long passed.

More importantly, the current equipment improvement of the Russian army based on actual combat feedback is very rapid, allowing the Russian army to make adjustments to the interception situation of the Ukrainian army within almost a few weeks, and the Ukrainian army wants to upgrade the "Patriots", the rhythm often cannot keep up because it involves the coordination of multinational teams.

In addition to the launch of 26 Iskander M ballistic missiles, the Russian army also equipped with 320 drones, significantly attracted the attention of the Ukrainian air defense forces, and consumed the Ukrainian ammunition, the subsequent Iskander M went in, this multi-wave, multi-type synchronous strike, the rhythm of "weakened" and "destroyed" deadly.

Next, there is a high probability that the Russian military will replicate this "upgraded missile + large-scale salvo attack" model and continue to consume the Ukrainian army's air defense resources. If the West fails to accelerate the upgrade iteration of the "Patriots" or provide more advanced anti-missile technology, Ukraine's sky defense line will probably become increasingly fragile.